Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
808 FXUS61 KRNK 020620 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Some showers are possible east of the Blue Ridge Monday morning as a mid-level low makes its way across the region. Other than some windy conditions following the low, the rest of the weather forecast is rather quiet. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: 1) Mid-level low to provide a chance of showers east of the Blue Ridge on Monday morning. Main weather event will be due to a mid-level trough that will casually pass through the eastern United States Sunday (today) and Monday morning. The precipitation potential for the far western counties has seriously downtrended but has uptrended for areas east of the Blue Ridge. The mid-level low will direct showers north, especially in the Piedmont area where there will be more moisture and a little more instability. Total precipitation amounts for this region are likely to not exceed 0.10". Other than that, weather is pretty quiet. The absence of a pressure gradient will keep winds calm for the region for this time period. Cloud cover this morning towards the west will keep low temperatures relatively warmer today than Monday morning. High temperatures will still be in the 60s regionwide for this afternoon. Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EsT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Becoming dry and sunny most of the week with seasonable temperatures. 2) Gusty winds Monday and Monday night and again Wednesday night. By Monday morning, a sharp trough axis and accompanying cutoff low will be centered directly overhead, from PA to south GA. This system begins to move offshore by afternoon, putting the Mid Atlantic region in WNW flow through Thursday. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will see just retreating cirrus Monday, while areas to the east will see lower overcast clouds gradually moving out of the area by afternoon. Rainfall would have ended across our forecast area in the early morning hours Monday. A weak reinforcing dry front crosses the area Monday night, bringing occasional clouds a period of gusty winds, especially for the mountains. Gusts look to stay in the 25 to 35 mph range, below wind advisory criteria. Another weak system brushes by us Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a few clouds and perhaps a sprinkle to the Greenbrier Valley. Otherwise, there is little weather to speak of, with strong high pressure prevailing with seasonable high temperatures. Readings will be in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday, increasing to more like 60F to 70F for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s, also warming a few degrees by midweek. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: 1) The extended period looks benign with only a couple low chances for rain through the weekend. 2) Temperatures remain seasonable. Long term ENS and GEFS anomalies indicate a mostly run of the mill weather setup for the long term. Overall, the mid to upper level flow will be near zonal, punctuated by a couple passing weather systems Friday into the weekend. These disturbances may bring some rain to the area, especially possible for the mountains over the weekend, but most of the forcing will remain to our north. Also not expecting much QPF as we will still be a relatively dry pattern with SW/W winds at the surface. By early next week, rain chances look more promising with a stronger and deeper trough approaching from the west. Confidence in the long term is high. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM EST Saturday... A cutoff low may bring some showers for KDAN and KLYH for Monday morning and a chance of reduced visibilities. Clouds will cover much of the area and head east as the low moves through. There is still a small chance of precipitation for KLWB and KBLF Sunday (today) morning but this chance is far less than the Piedmont/Foothills rain forecast on Monday. Otherwise, VFR for all terminals outside of possible rain. Confidence in the above forecast is high. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Residual rainfall may continue into late Monday morning but sky conditions will clear out as a mid-level trough moves eastward. Surface high pressure systems dominate the rest of the forecast period but winds are likely to pick up and gust between 20-25 knots following the low. Otherwise, a few frontal system provide very small chances of precipitation with little changes to flight rules. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CG NEAR TERM...CG SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM...SH AVIATION...CG