882
FXUS61 KRNK 061905
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
205 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold but dry weather conditions are expected to continue through
Sunday as high pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic. Another
storm system will move across the region Sunday night through
Monday, and could bring some light rain and snow to the region.
The mountains will have the best chance to receive some
accumulating snow from this system, with an inch or two possible
west of the Blue Ridge Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025

Key Message:
1. Below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions are
    expected to continue through Sunday.

Key Message 1...

Satellite imagery shows that lots of cloud cover has remained
from Central/Southside Virginia into northwestern North Carolina
through much of the day. Embedded within this region are pockets
of low clouds and reduced visibilities. The latest high-
resolution guidance continues to suggest that conditions should
continue improving over this area through the rest of the
afternoon, with at least partly cloudy skies possible before
sunset.

Tonight we`ll see the center of surface high pressure, embedded
in a nearly zonal flow aloft, traverse the Mid-Atlantic. By
Sunday, a quick-moving perturbation in the upper flow is
anticipated to move across the area as the high slides east.
While increased cloud cover is expected with this feature, the
lack of low- level moisture should keep conditions dry.

Temperatures will be the major weather story this weekend. The
diminished cloud cover and any lingering snow cover will allow
temperatures to quickly fall after sunset today. Confidence is
high that most places west of IH-81 could see early morning lows
in the 20-25 degree range, with middle 20s anticipated
elsewhere. These values are close almost 10 degrees below what
we normally see in early December. Temperatures Sunday afternoon
should be warmer than what we`re seeing today, but will likely
be tempered a bit due to the anticipated increase in cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025

Key Messages:
1. Snow likely late Sunday night into Monday morning

2. Very cold Monday night

3. Quiet under high pressure Tuesday

Key Message 1...
A southern stream system will lift north late on Sunday night,
initially taking a warm front across the area. This will also
advect in some Gulf moisture. Precipitation will begin as rain,
but as cold air from the north is swept across, the atmospheric
profile will change rather quickly to support a mostly snow
event going into Monday morning. As the time frame of this event
has slowed down in recent guidance, there is more time for the
cold air advection to occur, and thus the trend has been to
increase snow amounts. It is unlikely that this will be a
strong, noteworthy storm, as QPF is still quite low, and snow
amounts are generally between 1-2" in the mountains, and less
than an inch east of the Blue Ridge, where a rain snow mix is
expected to linger a bit longer into Monday. Totals and impacts
will be analyzed closely leading into this event, as there has
been variability in model runs, so a further increase in snow
totals is not out of the question.

Key Message 2...
In the wake of the front moving out of the area on Monday, a
significant drop in temperatures is expected for Monday night.
Lows in the teens will be commonplace, with the coldest
occurring near the Alleghany Highlands.

Key Message 3...
A relatively transient region of high pressure will suppress
meteorological activity on Tuesday. Temperatures in the upper
30s and 40s, along with mostly clear skies allowing some
sunshine, will aid in thawing any remaining snow or ice coverage
from the previous two wintry systems.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025

Key Messages:
1. Quick moving system to potentially bring rain/snow mix to the
    mountains on Wed/Wed night.

2. A more robust rain/snow system possible Thursday and/or
    Friday.

Key Message 1...
Much of central to eastern CONUS will be under the regime of a
longwave trough pattern with its parent low located near Hudson Bay.
Within this broad flow pattern, a series of shortwave troughs are
expected to pass over or north of the region. The first of these has
better consistency in timing and location than the second.

We are looking at a Wednesday evening crossing of the associated
shortwave trough axis with cold air advection arriving shortly in
its wake. Moisture associated with the system will advected into the
area with the system, with rain/snow expected to be limited to
primarily area along and west of the Blue Ridge, with best chances
over southeast West Virginia. Precipitation is expected to spread
into the area west to east during the day Wednesday, and linger
across the mountains (thanks to upslope flow) through the night. A
small amount of light precipitation may reach western sections of
the VA/NC Piedmont.

Key Message 2...
There is more variability in timing and track of the second
system. Additionally, some deterministic guidance offers a
southern stream system becoming involved in the process, and
thus and potential additional moisture sources and warm-nose low
level thermal profiles. A look at the latest NCEP Ensemble
500mb geopotential heights offers a late Friday evening as the
mean time frame for the passage of the next trough axis.
However, there is plenty of solutions favoring as early as
Thursday evening. Given the variability, our forecast will
reflect only a rain versus snow forecast rather than other
winter p-types. We will have increasing probabilities during the
day on Thursday from west to east, with values maximizing
Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday evening, we may be
within the northwest flow portion of the system, helping to have
the focus for any additional snow/rain primarily over the
mountains. Coverage and amounts should trail off heading into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025

Persistent Ac/Cs continues across the E parts of the forecast
area this afternoon. Embedded within this larger cloud area,
observational data indicates LIFR CIGs continue early this
afternoon at several C/Southside VA terminals. The cloud cover
has struggled to diminish over this region. The latest high-
res guidance continues to suggest - and the 06/1800 UTC TAFs
indicate - that flight categories should improve late this
afternoon across this area with a VFR conditions possible before
sunset.

Overall, minimal aviation impacts are anticipated through
07/1800 UTC with a surface high sliding across the area. A
quick-moving disturbance will likely thicken the Ac/Cs deck
across the region by Sunday morning, but any CIGs should remain
AOA 120. We could see some brief flight category reductions
again toward sunrise Sunday (similar to this morning), but my
confidence in the location/timing is on the low side and was
left out of the TAFs attm.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night-Monday: Restrictions possible as a storm system
brings S- to the area. Precipitation could begin as R- (or a
R-/S- mix) before changing to S-.

Monday night: Improving flight categories.

Tuesday: No restrictions anticipated.

Wedesday-Thursday: Restrictions becoming possible as another
storm system impacts the region. R- and S- will be possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DB
NEAR TERM...DB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DB