983
FXUS61 KRNK 082320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring additional light rain showers
late tonight, mainly to the Piedmont, ahead of a strong cold
front that will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Unseasonably cold air will settle across
the region from early Monday into Wednesday, supporting rounds
of mountain snow showers, before the deep low pressure system
supplying the cold air moves away. Temperatures will moderate
closer to normal for the second half of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 610 PM EST Saturday...

Update: Lowered PoPs across the NW NC mountains as boundary is west
of the area, draped across central NC into Southside VA. Isolated
light showers are tracking northeast along this boundary, therefore
increased rain chances over Rockingham NC, Caswell NC, southern
Pittsylvania VA and Halifax VA this evening.

Key Messages:

1) Mild temperatures for the weekend.

2) A few chances of showers before cold front arrives.

Weather will be mostly quiet up until a strong cold front
arrives Sunday night to drastically change things. Today`s
(Saturday) weather is rather benign with a brief period of upper
level cloud cover to pass through later today. A little
disturbance will pass along a stationary front near the NC/VA
border and give a decent chance of precipitation for the central
south VA and central north NC counties overnight tonight. Total
rain accumulations will be between a trace and 0.10" but some
localized areas may get up to 0.25". Early morning fog or mist
is possible for areas east of the Blue Ridge due to the
overnight rain and low level clouds. Elsewhere, there may be too
much cloud cover to support fog development.

On Sunday, there is another chance of precipitation due to a
prefrontal trough that passes through. The rain chances are
lower than on Saturday but will probably provide rain in the
western mountains due to their upslope nature. In addition,
winds will pick up from the southwest as the pressure gradient
strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic. Surface winds may be between
20-25 mph as a result. A disorganized jet at 850mb may bring
higher gusts to ridgetops but the spatial extent may be limited
as these winds will be parallel to the mountains` orientation.
Temperatures will be similar between Saturday and Sunday
afternoon but Sunday will still be warmer as additional warm air
is transported. Highs for Sunday are forecast to be in the
lower 60s to lower 70s. The cold front that has been hyped is
likely to pass through Sunday evening/night. Winds will shift
westerly and temperatures will begin to drop.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Light measurable snow for the mountains Sunday night through
Monday night. 2. Well below normal temperatures, and very low
wind chills, especially Monday night into Tuesday morning. 3.
Tuesday night will be colder than Monday night, but not with as
low of wind chills.

A look a the 8 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Sunday night, the axis of a highly amplified
trough will be moving east of the Mississippi River Valley. An
almost equally amplified ridge is expected to be centered over
western CONUS. For Monday/Monday night, the trough progresses to
eastern CONUS while also becoming slightly negatively tilted.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the axis of the trough pivots
northeast, and is expected to be centered over the Maine/Nova
Scotia region around evening time. The ridge over western CONUS
builds north into British Columbia, and a trough deepens over
the Gulf of Alaska.

At the surface for Sunday night, low pressure and its
associated cold front will head northeast from the mid-Atlantic
region into New England. High pressure will be centered over the
Northern Plains states. For Monday/Monday night, low pressure
and its associated cold front continue heading northeast into
the St. Lawrence Seaway region. The center of a broad region of
high pressure heads south to the Arklatex region. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, the center of the high shifts southeast
to over GA/FL. Another cold front starts heading southeast
through the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes region.


A look at the 8 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday night values falling
quickly, reaching a range of -9C to -4C, nw-se, by daybreak
Monday. Values continue to fall during the day on Monday,
reaching -10C to -9C, nw- se, by the evening hours. Values
within this range will correspond for most part of our region to
the 0.5 to 2.5 percentile of the 30- year CFSR climatology.
Only a mild tick upward is expected Monday night, before values
increase to around -3C to -1C, ne-sw, by late Tuesday afternoon.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. In
the wake of the cold frontal passage on Sunday, the system`s
parent upper low/trough will approach and reach our area Sunday
night through Monday. The result will be increasing west to
northwest winds behind the cold front and in advance of the
approaching upper trough Sunday night into Monday. However, even
gustier winds are expected Monday night into Tuesday once the
axis of the upper trough moves east of the region. With a
prolonged period of northwest/upslope flow in the west, and
additional dynamic support from the upper trough, we are still
forecasting the first snow event of the season for the mountains
Sunday night through Monday night. A transition of rain showers
to rain/snow showers then to snow showers is expected Sunday
evening, with the highest elevations switching to snow first.
Measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) will primarily occur
along and west of a line from Boone, NC to Lewisburg, WV Sunday
night through Monday night. Amounts in this area are generally
expected to be less than one inch, except the Bluefield, WV to
Tazewell, VA region which will commonly range from one to two
inches. Additionally, western sections of Greenbrier County, WV
will more likely experience one to three inches. Within these
different regions, any higher peak or ridge has the potential
for a amount above the average. At this point in time, at least
flurries look promising east to the crest of the Blue Ridge.
Early on in the transition from warm to cold, there may a few
pockets of freezing rain and/or sleet, but these are expected to
be short lived.

In addition to snow for the mountains, the combination of gusty
winds and well below normal temperatures, we will be looking at
some low wind chills, especially on Monday night/Tuesday
morning. For the mountains, values around the morning commute
time are expected to be in the single digits to near 10 degrees
across the mountains, with some of the highest peaks and ridges
within the five below zero to zero range. For the Piedmont
region, wind chills in the teens to near 20 are expected.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high on the overall
synoptic setup of the system, moderate to high confidence on
the low temperatures and low wind chills, and low to moderate
confidence on snowfall amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Points:

1. A quick rebound to at or slightly above normal temperatures
through the period. 2. No precipitation expected. 3. Potential
for increase in fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather section
of this discussion).

A look a the 8 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Wednesday/Wednesday night, a broad trough over
northeast Canada deepens into a closed low. A equally broad
circulation around the low will still impact synoptic flow
across much of the northeast, Great Lakes, and mid-Atlantic
portions of the US. A ridge over western CONUS make a little
headway eastward, and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska closes of
into a low west of the Pacific Northwest. For Thursday/Thursday
night, little change is expected in the position and influence
of the deep closed low over northeast Canada. The ridge in the
west makes progress into the Central Plains states. The trough
off the Pacific Northwest draws closer to shore. For
Friday/Friday night, the low over northeast Canada is expected
to open into a trough which will extend over the Canadian
Maritimes. The ridge over the Plains States trends more broad,
with its axis just west of the Mississippi River Valley by the
evening hours. A trough moves onshore the Pacific Northwest,
south into CA. For Saturday, the ridge axis moves east and is
expected to be over the eastern Great Lakes region, south into
Gulf Coast states by the evening. A trough over western CONUS
broadens and becomes centered over the Rockies.

At the surface for Wednesday/Wednesday night, the western Great
Lakes cold front crosses our region, and is expected to be over
New England around the early evening. High pressure remains
centered over GA/FL, but its northern extent shifts south in
response to the cold frontal passage. For Thursday/Thursday
night, as the front heads east of the region, high pressure
begins to build back north. For Friday/Friday night, the center
of the high is close to SC/GA, but the overall size of the high
broadens. Low pressure and an associated trailing cold front are
expected to develop along the lee of the Rockies. For Saturday,
the center of the high shifts to off the SE US coast, and the
cold front heads east towards the Mississippi River Valley.

A look at the 8 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday of
+2C to +5C, ne-sw, are expected for the region. For Friday,
temperatures increase to +5C to +8C, ne-sw. On Saturday, the
warming trend continues with values of +9C to +10C, ne-sw,
across the region.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With
high pressure anchored to our south, and still a significant low
pressure system to our northeast, our region will maintain at
least some degree of windiness with gusts, especially during the
daytime hours. The direction of the wind is expected to be from
the southwest on Wednesday, but become more west to northwest
Thursday into Friday. The more from the west to the northwest
the wind can be blowing, the more orthogonal to the orientation
to most mountain ridges in the area the wind will be. This
direction helps to maximize the effect of the wind blowing
downhill, and mixing drier air aloft to the surface. The
downward motion provides subsidence, with the air warming in the
process. Likewise, drier air reaching the ground helps to lower
the dew point. The combination lowers the relative humidity.
Therefore, as we head into the latter portion of the work week,
our forecast will reflect a warming trend, and one with relative
humidities lower than guidance suggests, as the models have a
history of being too moist is this type of scenario. No
precipitation is expected during this period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Saturday...

The weather is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24
hours with some small exceptions due to the possibility of
scattered showers overnight and again Sunday afternoon.
Overnight, a disturbance passes through near the VA/NC border
and will bring a chance of showers and low level clouds to KDAN
and KLYH. KDAN has the largest chance of receiving rain and
early morning fog. Sky conditions may degrade as far as LIFR as
a result at this terminal. KLYH may see some fog and rain but
conditions may not degrade further than MVFR. Residual low level
clouds may persist at KDAN into Sunday afternoon but KLYH
should return to VFR status after. KBLF and KLWB have a chance
of rain and MVFR skies Sunday afternoon as a prefrontal line of
showers is forecast to move through. These are likely to be
upslope based and confidence on these showers reaching KROA and
KBCB is low. In fact, KBCB and KROA may be the only terminals to
remain VFR for the entire time period. Only other thing of
interest is winds will start to pick up regionwide from the
southwest as a cold front makes its approach.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds absolutely spike from the west/northwest once the cold
front moves through. Wind gusts will persist into most of next
week and reach up to 25-35 kts along and west of the Blue Ridge.
The cold front will most likely bring wintry weather for areas
west of the Blue Ridge and primarily affect KLWB and KBLF. (Some
flurries sneaking into KBCB is not out of the question). Rain
late Sunday night will transition into snow by Monday morning
but some freezing rain could mix in at isolated locations. The
possibility for snow (less so freezing rain) continues into
Tuesday. KBLF currently is forecast to receive the most snow of
1-1.5 inches in total. By the middle of next week, higher
pressure moves in and skies should clear up.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half
of next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work
week. This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a
westerly, eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently
have daytime gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15
mph to 20 mph across the Piedmont. Lowering daily minimum RH
values, and subsidence in the east, thanks to the wind
orientation, will help for drying of fuels. These same fuels are
the ones which received generally less then one-quarter of an
inch last night, and for Sunday into Monday are expecting little
to no precipitation. We are still too early for high confidence
in an enhanced fire danger scenario, but with little to no
additional precipitation after last night`s minimal amounts, its
potential has increased, and we will continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG/RCS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CG/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...DS