417
FXUS61 KRNK 020000
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
800 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Mostly quiet weather continues for tonight, though a few stray
showers could occur west of the mountains overnight. A low pressure
system will approach from the west on Sunday, and then pass to the
south of the area by Monday, bringing increased chances for
precipitation to the mountains Sunday morning, and then to the
Piedmont by Monday. High pressure returns to the region after that
to provide dry weather through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Small rain chances overnight in the mountains, Sunday is
dry until evening in the Piedmont.

2. Near, to just below, normal temperatures.

High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will continue to keep dry
conditions in place this evening and into the overnight hours for
most of the area. The only exception will be the western facing
mountains, where a dying cold front will approach the area,
accompanied by an upper level trough. This could allow a few showers
to move into the area overnight, though they will be isolated and
light. By daybreak, any rain chances will end, with a dry Sunday
across the entire area until late afternoon into the evening. A low
pressure system will approach the area from the Tennessee Valley,
but will stay to our south. Some moisture from the system will move
up east of the Blue Ridge, with isolated showers possible. Better
rain chances will be for the far eastern Piedmont, and down into NC
into Sunday night.

Rain amounts remain light, with a trace along the Blue Ridge, with
the eastern Piedmont seeing around 0.10-0.20" at best. Temperatures
overnight tonight will be near to slightly above normal due to
increasing cloud cover, in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs for
Sunday will be slightly below normal, again due to cloud cover, in
the 50s to low 60s.

Overall the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous forecast discussion...


As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

Current surface analysis shows a large surface high pressure
system centered over the southeast US, with a cold front
extending from a low pressure system over the Great Lakes into
the Arklatex region.

Subsidence from the surface high will keep the weather dry for the
local forecast area through at least Sunday morning. Looking aloft,
a deepening upper level low will swing from the upper Midwest into
the southeast and Carolinas through the weekend. Meanwhile, the
cold front moves closer to the area, and the surface high pushes
farther north with the cold front sliding to the south. With
some moisture advection ahead of the front, and some increasing
return flow as west to northwesterly winds today turn easterly
tomorrow, could see a slight chance for rain in the mountains
Sunday. However, models have been trending drier with this
frontal passage. Most of the initial moisture will have to
overcome the dry airmass currently over the region, and so
confidence is lower in any measurable rainfall during the near
term forecast period. The better moisture looks to come late
Sunday into Monday as the upper low skirts to the south of the
area.

Cloud cover will increase today mainly in the west, as the westerly,
downsloping winds will keep skies partly to mostly sunny in the
east. Overnight, as the westerly winds diminish, expect cloud cover
to expand eastward, which will temper radiational cooling and keep
lows up to 5 degrees above seasonal norms, in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Afternoon highs will be right around normal, to a few
degrees below, in the low to mid 50s in the west and low 60s in
the east, for today and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain showers possible on Monday.

2. Dry conditions again Tuesday with above normal temperatures.

An upper wave will move out of the Tennessee Valley and into the
Carolinas on Monday. This will result in a few showers, mainly
confined to locations east of the mountains. Widespread rainfall is
not anticipated as the upper wave remains neutrally tilted as it
passes south of our area. This disturbance will continue east into
the Atlantic Monday night as high pressure quickly builds into the
region from the west for Tuesday.

Dry and sunny conditions expected on Tuesday with high pressure
overhead. Above normal temperatures, rising into the 60s by the
afternoon. Overnight lows cool, mainly in the upper 30s to low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Aside from low chances of mountains showers on Wednesday
night and Friday night, most of this forecast period stays dry.

2. Temperatures will run near or slightly above normal for this
time of year.

High pressure will keep conditions dry on Wednesday amidst a mild
southwest flow, but it should head offshore by Wednesday night as a
cold front passes to the north. Only a low chance of showers may
reach western Greenbrier County during this frontal passage.
Otherwise, the flow will swing towards the northwest to make
Thursday a bit cooler but still close to normal values for early
November. Another area of high pressure should continue the stretch
of dry weather into Friday. By Friday night, a slightly more potent
cold front could reach the Appalachian Mountains to give a chance of
showers. However, most of the moisture may stay west of the Blue
Ridge. Weak high pressure should return on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions continue across the entire area this
evening as high pressure remains over the area. Westerly winds will
continue to decrease as we are post-sunset, with all terminals
seeing calm or very light winds overnight. Winds return again
tomorrow but shift to the east as the high moves offshore. Gusts
of 10+ knots will be possible area-wide. Clouds are beginning
to move in from the west, with slightly lowering cigs, but are
expected to remain VFR level through the night area-wide. There
is a slight chance of showers overnight between 06-10z for
BLF/LWB, but they will be light and short-lived. Any showers
would result in brief sub-VFR conditions.

VFR is expected to continue for Sunday, with dry weather through
late tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances increase for the eastern
Piedmont, as a low pressure system nears the area, but remains
off to the south. The presence of the system will be enough for
some showers to form, mainly affecting DAN/LYH, which would
bring sub-VFR conditions. All other terminals will see quiet
weather and VFR conditions through tomorrow night.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions increase in the Piedmont and
Foothills late Sunday night into Monday morning, though mainly
impacting DAN/LYH. Conditions improve late Monday, and look to
remain VFR through at least Wednesday. The passage of dry cold front
Wednesday night will bring breezy winds near 20 knots, but only
limited precipitation chances for southeast WV. High pressure
builds in for the late week, keeping dry and quiet weather in
place across the area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/JCB
NEAR TERM...AS/JCB
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS/JCB