554
FXUS61 KRNK 092320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the mountains during this
afternoon and evening, bringing additional showers. Behind the
front, temperatures will turn drastically colder for tonight and
Monday in addition to blustery northwest winds and mountain
snow showers. Winter weather advisories for accumulating snow
have been issued from the mountains of North Carolina, northward
into the mountains of far western Virginia and West Virginia.
Winter storm warnings have been issued for some of the highest
elevations where snowfall through Monday night could total 3 to
8 inches. Snow flurries may drift across the Blue Ridge and
into the Piedmont Monday and Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 PM EST Sunday...

Update: A cold front moved across the mountains this afternoon
but stalled across the foothills. Showers and a few
thunderstorms formed along the boundary with one report of very
small hail in Patrick County. Cells are moving rapidly from the
southwest to northeast but the boundary is slowly tracking east
into the Piedmont. At this pace, this line of convection will be
over Danville to Charlotte Court House between 6-7 PM, exiting
the area by 10 PM.

Cold air will continue to filter in across the mountains this
evening. Light rain showers are expected to change over to snow
showers overnight with some accumulations above 3500 feet by
sunrise. Average soil temperature in western Greenbrier are
running in the mid to upper 40s. Any accumulations overnight
should be on grassy surfaces.

Key Messages:

1) A frigid airmass arrives tonight with a transition to
mountain snow showers through Monday night.

While a few pesky showers associated with a prefrontal weak
disturbance are tracking across the northern and western parts
of the area this afternoon, the main focus remains with a strong
cold front set to swing across the forecast area this evening
and the increased potential for mountain snow showers through
Monday night.

Thermal profiles look to plummet with the coldest airmass of
the season ushering in. At first the moisture column should
remain fairly shallow generally remaining below 5 kft through
tonight so any accumulations of snow showers tonight look to
remain fairly light confined to the upslope zone of the western
mountains. The main period of possible impacts will be later
Monday through Monday night as a lobe of the strong upper closed
low breaks away and digs southward allowing for robust forcing
with the vort max and a deeper layer of moisture supportive of
decent dendritic growth. SLRs are quite impressive as well with
some parts of the west possibly getting close to 20:1. There
might be a lull of snow activity near the middle part of Monday
night behind the main trough axis before a secondary push of
moisture advects in from the NW.

WPC snow amounts came in a bit higher mainly for some of the
higher ridges but all in all amounts look supportive of the
current Winter Weather Advisory with a slight expansion into
Bland Co. generally getting 1-3 inches and possibly higher
locally near some peaks, then continuing the Winter Storm
Warning for Western Greenbrier but increasing the range of 3-8
inches. The strong gradient winds and gusts up to 35-45 mph
aren`t going to help with conditions and the frigid temps as
resultant wind chills dive down into the single digits for much
of the mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Bulk of the heaviest snow for the upcoming winter event to
occur late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. 2. Very low
wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning. 3. Drier with
moderating temperatures Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

A look a the 9 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday night a deep upper low is expected to
be centered over NY/PA, and be part of a broader longwave trough
pattern which covers all of eastern CONUS. To the west, upper
level ridging is expected over the SW US. For Tuesday/Tuesday
night, the axis of the longwave trough heads northeast across
New England and into southeast Canada. A shortwave trough within
the broader longwave pattern is expected to be heading
southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ridging over the
SW US expands north to cover much of western CONUS. A trough
deepens over the Gulf of Alaska. For Wednesday/Wednesday night,
the Upper Mississippi Valley shortwave trough is expected to
progress across our region and be over New England by the
evening hours. The trough-ridge pairing over western CONUS makes
a little progress eastward.

At the surface for Monday night, low pressure will be situated
near Maine, with an associated cold front extending south into
the western Atlantic. Behind this front, a broad area of high
pressure will be centered near the Arklatex. For Tuesday/Tuesday
night, the center of the high shifts to over the SE US, but
maintaining influence from TX to the Carolinas. A cold front
will be progressing southeast across parts of the Upper
Mississippi River Valley and into the Central Plains states. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the cold front progresses quickly
across the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley. High pressure
remains centered over the SE US, but its northern extent is
squelched a bit by the passing cold front.

A look at the 9 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Monday night, values across
the region are expected to range from -9C to -8C. Values of this
magnitude fall within the 0.5 to 2.5 percentile of the 30-year
CFSR climatology. On Tuesday, values increase during the day to
-2C to 0C, ne-sw, by the evening. For Tuesday night into
 Wednesday, values continue trending upward, reaching +2C to
 +4C, ne-sw, by the evening hours.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
axis of the upper trough passing over the region in conjunction
with a prevailing gusty northwest flow, will enhance snow
production across the mountains. During the time of our valid
Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory, the late
Monday afternoon and Monday evening period when we are expecting
the bulk of the snow to fall. As we progress through the night,
and into Tuesday, we lose two features which will decrease and
finally conclude the measurable snow. First after midnight the
influence of dynamics associated with the upper trough move
east. Concurrently, low level winds start to back, the start of
a reduction in upslope snow production. During the day Tuesday,
winds continue to back, such that little in the way of
additional snow is expected in the morning. By the afternoon,
southwest flow warm air advection is expected. Despite the
change in direction, winds are expected to remain gusty thanks
to a tight pressure gradient between building high pressure and
the strong low pressure to our northeast.

With very gusty winds and what are expected to be well below
normal temperatures, very low wind chills are expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning, including the time of the morning
commute. Single digits to near 10 degrees will be common across
the mountains. Some of the higher peaks and ridges will be
around 0F, if not a couple of degrees below zero.

As we progress from Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
temperatures are expected to gradually moderate. The cold front
passing to our north on Wednesday into Wednesday night is
expected to be far enough away as to not contribute any
precipitation to the area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Dry with moderating temperatures through Saturday. 2.
Potential for showers on Sunday. 3. Gusty through much of this
time period.

A look a the 9 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Thursday/Thursday night a longwave trough
pattern remains parked over southeast Canada. Upper level
ridging moves into central CONUS with a trough over western
CONUS. For Friday/Friday night, a trough/low remains over far
southeast Canada. The ridge moves to over the Great Lakes south
to the Gulf Coast states. The trough over western CONUS moves
east just slightly. For Saturday/Saturday night, a upper low
remains over southeast Canada. The upper ridge becomes centered
over our region during the evening hours. The trough in the west
moves into central CONUS. For Sunday, the ridge axis heads east
to over Maine and the western Atlantic. The central CONUS
trough decreases in amplitude as it progresses into the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

At the surface for Thursday/Thursday night, high pressure over
the SE US builds north into the mid-Atlantic. Low pressure and
associated cold front begins to develop over the lee of the
Rockies. For Friday/Friday night, the center of the high shifts
east to the coast of the Carolinas, while the cold front makes
progress eastward into the Plains States. For Saturday/Saturday
night, the surface high continues its slow progression eastward
into the western Atlantic. The cold front advances into the
Upper Mississippi Valley. For Sunday, the high continues its
eastward journey. The cold front moves into the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

A look at the 9 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Thursday afternoon around +3C
to +5C, ne-sw, across the area. Values trend upward, reaching
+6C to +8C, ne- sw, by Friday afternoon. For Saturday, the
upward trend continues with afternoon readings around +10C for
the entire region. On Sunday, values dip slightly to around +8C
for the area.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With
the center of a broad region of high pressure progressing east,
flow around this system will allow some component of a westerly
wind across the region through Saturday. With low pressure over
southeast Canada remaining strong, we should maintain at least a
modest pressure gradient across our region during this time
period. Gusty daytime winds should be common each day.
Additionally, with increasing 850mb temperatures, surface
temperatures should also reflect warming trend through this
period.

The big question for this portion of the forecast is Sunday,
especially in regards to the timing of an approaching cold
front. Current timing of this feature should provide for some
showers on Sunday. With increased clouds and the potential for
showers, Sunday high temperatures may be cooler than those of
Saturday. However, the opposite may be true for the low
temperatures thanks to the clouds and higher dew point values.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate through
Saturday, then low to moderate for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Sunday...

Some MVFR cigs initially near the western sites, otherwise VFR
cigs generally 4-6 kft. Some VCSH this afternoon near some
mountain sites, then as much colder air comes in behind a strong
cold front, a transition to snow showers looks to occur near
LWB and BLF tonight and then perhaps a greater chance later
Monday into Monday night. Expecting MVFR cigs also for LWB and
BLF tonight into Monday as well. Winds will be on the increase
out of the west to NW becoming 10-16 kts and gusts 18-26 kts.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times. Wintry weather is likely for the mountains
through early Tuesday with potential for accumulating snow along
the Appalachian Divide. Flurries may be seen into areas east of
the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon and Monday night.

By the middle of the week, higher pressure moves in and skies
should clear. Above seasonal temperatures return for the end of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half of
next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work week.
This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a westerly,
eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently have daytime
gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15 mph to 20 mph
across the Piedmont. Friday will be the day with the weakest winds.
Lowering daily minimum RH values, and subsidence in the east, thanks
to the wind orientation, will help for drying of fuels. These same
fuels are the ones which received generally less then one-quarter of
an inch Friday night, and less than one-tenth of an inch last night.
For tonight into Monday are expecting little to no precipitation. We
are still too early for high confidence in an enhanced fire danger
scenario, but with little to no additional precipitation after last
night`s minimal amounts, its potential continues to increase, and we
will continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ007-009-
     010-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...DS