578
FXUS61 KRNK 190608
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
108 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be draped from North Carolina, west to
the Tennessee Valley today, then sink south into Georgia and
South Carolina. Another storm system is expected to move into
the region by Friday bringing our next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Drying out with low clouds building in Wed night.

Upper shortwave pushes through by 12z, with rain ending/heading
south. Clouds will likely stick around for most of the day along the
western slopes while it scatters out to the east. Front stays south
of us into tonight with high pressure wedging southward. Models
favor low clouds remaining and developing across a good deal of
the area this evening and lingering overnight.

Highs today will be above normal ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s from Roanoke southeast into the southern VA/northern NC
Piedmont, to upper 50s to mid 60s in the west.

With cloud cover tonight, should keep lows in the 40s. Potential for
some drizzle/light rain along western slopes in WV late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry for most of Thursday, rain chances increase Friday.

2. Temperatures remain above normal.

Surface high pressure builds south into the area Thursday behind the
front that brought rain to the area Wednesday and ahead of the next
system approaching from the west. With this brief period of wedging
setting up and plenty of cloud cover to limit daytime heating, have
gone lower for high temperatures on Thursday. Southerly winds and
warm air advection will keep temperatures dropping too far behind
the backdoor cold front, and so above normal temperatures are still
expected, but closer to seasonal norms.

The surface high will shift offshore by Friday morning, as a low
pressure system develops in the central US as the upper wave that
has been plaguing southern California and the southwest US with
heavy rain, moves farther east. The system will move along the
persistent ridge over the Gulf, initially tracking roughly
northeastward into the central Plains, and then more easterly into
the TN Valley area. As the system progresses, will see the warm
front lift through the local forecast area Friday, bringing
increased rain chances as early as Friday morning, but more likely
timing is about midday and afternoon. The front looks to stall over
the Mid Atlantic, or move very slowly, some models having the low
moving nearly due east across the area, before another surface high
drops south and finally pushes the front out of the area later
Saturday. The front will weaken with time, and rain amounts will be
around three quarters of an inch in southeast WV and far southwest
VA, tapering to a quarter of an inch in the Piedmont and Southside
VA.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, though the
coolest temperatures on Thursday, trending up again by Saturday,
when the Piedmont could touch the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry Sunday and Monday, rain chances increase Tuesday.

2. Still above normal temperatures, but trending closer to normal
towards midweek.

Dry weather will make its return to the area by Sunday, as high
pressure develops and moves into the area. This will keep any rain
chances to near zero through at least Monday night. Another low
pressure system develops over the southern Plains Monday, but long
range models disagree on the speed of its progression and its
associated rainfall footprint. This system will tap into Gulf
moisture as it tracks eastward, which will eventually bring the next
chances of rain to the area, possibly as early as Tuesday morning.

Low temperatures will fall back into the mid to upper 30s for the
higher elevations and 40s elsewhere by Sunday morning. Highs will be
warmest on Sunday and Monday, trending lower by Tuesday, though
still above normal for this time of year, in the low 60s in the east
and low 50s in the west. At this time, most of the precipitation
with the system arriving during the midweek time frame looks to be
all rain.

Depending on the timing of the arrival of this system, as well
as its departure, could see precipitation lingering into
Wednesday, and may bring some impacts to pre-Thanksgiving Day
travel.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1222 AM EST Wednesday...

Periods of rain will bring MVFR to IFR cigs and at times vsbys
to all terminals into 09-10z. Rain pushes out but expect IFR to
MVFR cigs to remain at BLF/LWB/BCB into late morning scattering
out to the east. BCB should scatter out by 19z. Low clouds in
the 500-3000 ft range will once again become broken/overcast
after 00z/Thu, with lower cigs at BLF/LWB.

Some low level wind shear to start the tafs, but the strong low
level jet exits by 9z.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Lower cigs and potential fog can be expected over much of the
area late Wed night into Thu morning, before lifting back to VFR
during the day Thursday.

Sub-VFR conditions return by Friday with the next chance of rain
which is likely to linger into Saturday, though cigs may lift
during the day Saturday. Sunday looks to be dry with VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...CG/DB/WP