513
FXUS61 KRNK 301123
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
623 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry weather early this morning across mountain locations
should quickly end by mid day. All rain should be out of the
area by the early afternoon as the cold front quickly pushes off
the coast. High pressure will quickly pass to the north Sunday
night and early Monday before a low pressure system moving
across the Southeast will bring the next chance for a wintry mix
during the Monday night and Tuesday morning timeframe. High
pressure returns through the middle of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter Weather Advisory Continues through 12pm EDT.

2) Mainly a light icing event that is quick moving, changing to
   rain by Sunday mid day.

Light showers and wintry mix along a frontal boundary looks to
continue through the mid morning hours for mountain locations
and areas along and north of 460 across the Piedmont. Most
mountain locations are expected to see under a tenth of an inch
of freezing rain through noon, with many areas already seeing
light snow and sleet thus far tonight. As a 40-50 knot
southwesterly jet aloft warms temperatures across this layer,
these snow/sleet showers are expected to transition to mostly
freezing rain for mountain locations through the remainder of
the frontal passage. Showers during this timeframe will also
likely be fighting dry air in the low levels, which will help
keep temperatures cooler at the surface through the morning
hours before warm air advection finally wins out. By noon, most
rain/freezing rain showers should be out of the area as a quick
moving high pressure system pushes through the Ohio valley
Sunday and Monday before the next system arrives late Monday
night.

Temperatures this morning should hover around their current
values of around freezing, with a gradual warming expected
through the early morning hours. High temperatures Sunday
afternoon are expected to eventually climb into the the mid to
upper 40s areawide.

Forecast confidence is high on some light icing, but lower on
snow/sleet.

Temperatures tonight should cool into the low 20s west of the
Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 20s east of the Blue Ridge behind
the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Increasing confidence in a winter weather event to impact much of
the region Monday night and Tuesday, especially across the mountains
and northern sections of the Piedmont.
2. Dry Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
3. Temperatures around a little below normal.

A look a the 29 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night a deep closed low pressure
system will be centered just north of Hudson Bay. As associated long
wave will extend southwest from the low center into central CONUS.
As such, southwest flow aloft will prevail across our region. A
shortwave trough will be over British Columbia heading towards the
Pacific Northwest. A shortwave ridge will be over the Gulf of
Alaska. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the trough over center CONUS is
expected to make headway eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians by the early evening. Upstream, the shortwave
trough over BC moves southeast into western CONUS and begins to
amplify. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the trough over western
CONUS maintains its relative position. However, arctic shortwave
trough heads south on the west side of the closed Canadian low
pressure into the Upper Mississippi and western Great Lakes region.
Southwest flow will prevail across our region.

At the surface for Monday/Monday night, the center of surface high
pressure crosses our region during the morning hours. By the late
afternoon, its center is expected to be closer to NY/NJ. Also by the
late afternoon, an inverted trough is expected to extend from the
Lower Mississippi Valley northeast into the Tennessee Valley. Monday
night, this inverted trough is expected to cross our region and
start deepening into a closed low. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, this
same closed low is expected to move northeast and be centered off
the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula by the evening hours. High
pressure will be centered over much of the Mississippi Valley. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the high pressure shifts east, with its
center over the Carolinas by the evening. A weak cold front will be
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, while another area of high
pressure will be centered over the Dakotas.

A look at the 29 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Monday will start the day within a
range of -4C to +1C, north to south across the region. During the
day warm air advection provides early evening values of -1C to +2C,
ne-sw across the area. Warm air advection continues Monday night
into Tuesday morning yielding a range of +2C to +6C, nw-se. On
Tuesday, temperatures decrease during the day from northwest to
southeast. By the early evening, expect values of -6C to 0C, nw-se,
across the region. Through the night the temperatures gradient
slackens a bit with values of -4C to 0C, n-s, by daybreak Wednesday.
On Wednesday, temperatures inch higher with early evening values of
0C to +2C, n-s. Wednesday night, warm air advection brings a surge
of warmer air across the Piedmont, with a tightening of the gradient
in general across the region. Early Thursday morning values are
expected to range from -1C to +5C, nw-se.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. After a dry
day on Monday, the interaction of an approaching upper trough
through the center of the country, the development of an inverted
trough over the Tennessee Valley, and isentropic advection of
moisture into our region, will yield a precipitation event which
will begin Monday night, and not conclude until the axis of the
upper trough is east of the area Tuesday evening.

Initially Monday night within the lower levels we will have sub-
freezing air across northern parts of the area and slightly above
freezing air in the south. At the surface, temperatures will be
falling through the 30s during the evening hours with dew point
depressions around 10 to 15F. Evaporative cooling should help
initially enhance the cooling process, all the while aloft, warm air
advection will be taking place. Eventually, warm air advection will
reach the surface, yielding warming surface temperatures through the
night, continuing into the daytime Tuesday through the early
afternoon. After this time, both the approach and eventual sunset,
and the passage of the the upper trough will start to allow for
falling temperatures, and a loss of any warm nose aloft.

The result of all of this is expected to be light snow across the
northern half of the region early Monday evening, with a mix of
rain, freezing rain, and or sleet for the southern half. As the
night progresses, the snow areas will retreat north with more of the
region having the potential for freezing rain and/or sleet. By late
Monday night, only the farthest north parts of the area will see
snow, and that could easily be mixed with other wintry p-types. The
freezing rain will also become more concentrated across the north,
and also southern parts of the Blue Ridge, and much of the rest of
the southern half of the area experiences a cold non-freezing rain.

On Tuesday, by the the late morning, much of the region will be
experiencing a plain cold rain except for portions of southeast West
Virginia and the southern Alleghany Highlands. Here, temperatures
may stay just cold enough for conditions to still be snow and/or
freezing rain. As we progress into and through the afternoon, look
for area of light snow to increase across the mountains as
temperatures fall and winds shift northwest. Ending rainfall is
expected elsewhere.

Tuesday night, precipitation is expected to end across all but
portions of southeast West Virginia. Here, some lingering flurries
may continue through the evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected for the area. Dry conditions with temperatures around a
slightly below normal are expected through Wednesday night.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry with seasonable temperatures Thursday.
2. Friday, potential wintry mix but, low confidence on details.
3. Saturday, potential cold rain day with some light mix in the
   north, but low confidence on details.
4. Temperatures trending milder through the period.

A look at the 29 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Thursday/Thursday night, the axis of an arctic
shortwave trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into New
England. This axis will be over our region around or a little after
the early evening. For Friday/Friday night, the trough over the area
on Thursday is expected to reach the Canadian Maritimes by Friday
evening. However, a second shortwave trough associated with a closed
Canadian low pressure will be progressing through the western Great
Lakes. A longwave trough/potential closed low, remains parked over
southwest CONUS. For Saturday, the shortwave trough to our west on
Friday across the area. Exact timing is questionable as the ensemble
solution washes out the feature too much.

At the surface for Thursday/Thursday night, high pressure over the
Dakotas heads southeast and becomes centered over the Lower Ohio
Valley by the evening hours. An inverted trough develops near
Brownsville, TX along a front which extends into the Gulf of
America. For Friday/Friday night, the high pressure progresses east
from the Ohio Valley to off the New England coast by the early
evening. Low pressure rides east along a frontal boundary in the
northern Gulf to reach the area of the Florida Panhandle by early
Saturday morning. For Saturday, details with the ensemble washout
within the averaging. However, there are hints that high pressure
will be over our region, while a front, and possible low riding
along it, will be somewhere over the SE US.

A look at the 29 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Thursday falling during the day and
reaching a range of -4C to +1C, nw-se by the early evening. For
Friday, values trend upward, reaching a range of -1C to +2C, n-s. ON
Saturday, values inch upward to a range of 0C to +4C, with a nw-se
orientation.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure will maintain control on our weather pattern on Thursday
with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. For Friday into
Saturday, confidence on details slides downward a lot. High pressure
will generally be situated over or just north of the region.
Additionally, a couple of southern streams system will have the
potential of bringing precipitation northward into our region, a
region which will be occupied by generally cold air in association
with the high pressure. This could set the stage for a Friday and
Saturday which will have the potential for good precipitation
coverage across the area. The one on Friday will have colder air off
the surface and at the surface to work with for the potential for
wintry weather as compared to Saturday. Our forecast will reflect
that scenario, but know that confidence is low, and this far out in
time there is plenty of opportunity for adjustments in precipitation
type, timing and amount as we get closer to the days in question.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is low to moderate for
Thursday and low Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

MVFR to LIFR restrictions have started to move over the region
early this morning and are expected to continue to expand to
Piedmont terminals during the early afternoon hours. Ongoing light
wintry mix showers will continue across mountain terminals and
LYH through the early to mid morning hours before transitioning
to all rain beyond the 15 UTC to 17 UTC timeframe. Through the
early morning hours of 09 UTC to 15 UTC timeframe, some LLWS is
expected across BCB, BLF, and LWB. This LLWS should diminish as
surface winds start to pick up through the mid morning hours.
Winds early in the TAF period look to be light out of the south,
but should transition to the southwest and eventually
west/northwest throughout the day as the cold front progresses
through the region. Winds also look to progressively get gustier
throughout the afternoon hours, with peak gusts in the 15-20
knot range expected by this evening behind the frontal passage.


MVFR to LIFR restrictions look to lift by the 00 UTC to 03 UTC
timeframe at nearly all terminals across the area, with DAN and
LYH possibly returning to VFR prior to these timeframe.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Most sites except possibly BLF return to VFR Monday evening,
with VFR for all Monday morning. Another system arrives with
more wintry weather Monday night so expect sub-VFR cigs/vsbys
late Monday night into Tuesday. Return to VFR for most by
Wednesday-Thursday, slower at BLF Wed.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-045>047.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/EB