854
FXUS61 KRNK 021908
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As the storm system exits the region today, it will be replaced
by an area of dry high pressure for mid-week. Another
opportunity for mixed wintry precipitation is possible Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Possible lingering light snow showers in the far northwest
into this evening then clearing and dry conditions for
Wednesday.

Much of the upper disturbance and precip coverage has exited
stage east and the temps have trended close to what was expected
as a prominent warm nose overran the cold shallow air. The
morning raob showed this feature to be about +7 deg C near 850
mb. In the wake of the front there has been the typical cold
advection stratocu taking hold across much of the mountains as
the Piedmont is showing some clearing conditions with the
downsloping. There could be some light snow shower development
in the far NW upslope zone this afternoon into evening but the
low level moisture column should be quite shallow and not
expecting impacts. Gusty gradient NW winds should kick in this
afternoon then gradually become lax overnight. Progged temps
tonight should bottom out mainly in the upper teens to low 20s
for the mountains and low to mid 20s for much of the Piedmont.

Dry ridge of high pressure takes hold for a mostly sunny and
cool Wednesday. Max temps look to be a bit limited to the upper
30s to mid 40s for much of the mountains and mid to upper 40s
for the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EST TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) More wintry mix likely Friday

A surface high situated just to our north will keep weather quiet
and temperatures mild through Thursday. The high will move
northeast, paralleling the motion of a Gulf low approaching the Mid-
Atlantic from the Arklatex. This high will have a strong influence
on the type of precipitation we receive on Friday. As it forces a
wedge of colder air, the closer the low pressure system follows, the
more widespread wintry precipitation will be. Precip is most likely
to begin as snow across most of the area Friday morning. As the
colder air associated with the wedge is lost because the high moves
further north, temperatures will warm in the mid-levels and the snow
will become a wintry mix for most in the afternoon and evening,
eventually becoming just rain with pockets of freezing rain later
Friday night. This system will quickly exit offshore, bringing an
end to precipitation by Saturday morning.

Daytime temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid-30s to the
upper 40s. Nightly lows will be in the 20s for the entire area. Due
to wedging and overcast skies, highs on Friday will struggle to
reach more than a few degrees above freezing, before warming again
Saturday into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Uncertainty surrounding an early week system

2) Potential for another round of wintry mix, but details are unclear

There is little confidence in almost every aspect of a late
weekend/early workweek system. Even the location of expected precip
varies greatly between deterministic models. Most of this portion of
the forecast discussion should be taken with a grain of salt. The
common feature amongst global models is a digging shortwave which
leads to some atmospheric activity. The 540 dam 1000-500mb thickness
contour passes almost straight through the forecast area, passing
through the Mid-Atlantic with the shortwave. This puts little
confidence in where wintry precipitation may occur and how the
situation will evolve. Keep an eye on this system for frozen
precipitation. How much, for how long, and what type? A high degree
of uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

While precipitation has largely diminished across the area, some
stratocu should linger across some of the western sites going
into tonight and Wednesday morning. Cig levels should be near
MVFR or lower (maybe even LIFR for BLF). Otherwise expecting VFR
and mostly clear skies during the day Wednesday. Initial winds
should be gusting out of the NW for some locations near 20 kts then
gradually decrease overnight and become fairly light out of the
west to SW for Wednesday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR continuing Thursday...under influence of high pressure. For
Friday, another storm system will approach the lower Mid-
Atlantic to bring wintry weather and degraded flying conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/PM