633
FXUS61 KRNK 060815
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
315 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold but dry weather expected across the region today as high
pressure passes over the region. Continue to watch for patchy
ice on roads until temperatures are able to warm above freezing
this afternoon. An upper level low will push through the
region late Sunday into Monday, which could bring some light
rain and snow across the region. The mountains will have the
best chance to receive some accumulating snow from this system,
with an inch or two possible west of the Blue Ridge Monday. A
period of quieter weather is expected mid-week, until another
system nears the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Watch for patchy ice on roads until temperatures are able to
warm above freezing this afternoon.

2) In general expecting fair weather today and tonight,
temperatures remaining colder than normal.

Lot`s of low level moisture around this morning with combination
of refreeze of snow melt and patchy freezing fog resulting in
black ice on untreated roads and sidewalks this morning.
Caution advised until temperatures can warm enough above
freezing late morning and afternoon to promote melting.

In general expecting fair weather today and tonight as high
pressure passes overhead. In spite of the subsidence, lingering
moisture and lack of dry air advection is still resulting in an
abundance of cloud cover. Clouds are forecast to thin for the
afternoon, so looking forward to some peaks of sunshine.

Temperatures today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer
compared to yesterday, but still averaging 4 to 8 degrees below
the seasonal norm.  Lows tonight are headed back into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and cool on Sunday.

2) Next round of impactful winter weather will arrive early Monday,
with snow persisting into Monday night.

3) Dry and cool weather returns for Tuesday.

Looking to Sunday, will start the day with high pressure passing
overhead, which will leave chilly dry air in place ahead of our next
wintry event.

A warm front will approach from the south Sunday night, lifting
moisture northward from the Gulf coast region before the associated
cold front passes southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic. This will
result in rain, possibly with pockets of freezing rain, early Sunday
night changing to snow by dawn as far south as northern North
Carolina, with light snow persisting through Monday before gradually
diminishing during the evening. Given the arrival of cold air from
the north, confidence is high that the vast majority of wintry
precipitation with this system will fall in the form of snow.
However, there remains variability in the latest round of data
concerning snowfall amounts with this event, which have increased
slightly this morning from the previous forecast. The latest
forecast now has totals in the 1" to 2" range for much of the
mountains south of Highway 460, with lower totals further north and
east. It`s possible that total snowfall amounts with this event will
increase again when new data becomes available this afternoon.

With high pressure over New England building southward across the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday night, lingering snow will gradually fade
away, and is expected to have ended by sunrise Tuesday. While dry
weather will continue through Tuesday night, temperatures will
remain some 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Increasingly confident upslope snow showers will impact southeast
West Virginia and southwest Virginia on Thursday.

2) Another low pressure system may bring impactful wintry weather on
Friday.

After a generally dry day on Wednesday, a cold front will bring our
next chance of precipitation on Wednesday night into Thursday in the
form of snow showers across the mountains, and rain in the warmer
air further east. Still too early to get into snowfall amounts, but
there appears to be a decent fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan
to support accumulating snowfall in mountains that will be impactful
for travel. Guidance seams to be in agreement that snowfall will
begin to fade on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Latest forecast data also suggests that another low pressure system
will affect the lower Mid-Atlantic on Friday, though there appears
to be a wide variety in the forecast data in how this system will
develop and, therefore, what types of precipitation will occur across
our region. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this event in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

IFR/LIFR conditions observed east of the Blue Ridge this morning
with improving conditions in the west as southwest winds begin
to promote some mixing over the mountains. Areas of low stratus
with partial ridge obscurations and freezing fog can be
expected through daybreak before improving. Between 12Z/7AM and
17Z/Noon fog and stratus are expected to dissipate with flight
conditions transitioning to VFR for the afternoon.

Winds will be light through the period, 8 knots or less, mainly
out of the west or southwest.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another weather system bringing potential for widespread sub
VFR conditions is forecast late Sunday and through Monday, with
potential for more wintry precipitation. There may be impacts to
the Monday morning push.

Yet another system approaches Thursday, but the track of the
system and its associated impacts are uncertain at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM