161
FXUS61 KRNK 031819
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
119 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and benign weather continues into Thursday before
wintry weather returns on Friday possibly in the form of snow.
There will be a brief quiet period in weather before another
system brings another round of wintry weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Cold front to pass on Thursday and bring some gusty wind.

High pressure over the area will allow for clouds to clear out by
Wednesday afternoon and a cold front will pass through the area on
Thursday (tomorrow). This cold front will be dry and not bring any
precipitation aside from some snow flakes in Western
Greenbrier. Winds will pick up, however, and gust between 15-25
mph along and west of the Blue Ridge and then calm down by late
Thursday night. Cloud cover is also expected to pick up Thursday
night as well ahead of a possible winter system. Otherwise,
Thursday`s highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 50s and lows
will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Snow and some wintry mix Friday

Due to a surface high over New England, the eastern half of the CWA
will be wedged in on Thursday, lasting through most of Friday as it
recedes with the high moving offshore. A region of low pressure
moving north off the Gulf will bring plenty of moisture into the
cold environment starting early Friday morning. Snow will begin to
fall in the NC High Country and spread north and east across the
entire forecast area during the morning. Most of the precipitation
will be snow, though later in the afternoon into Friday evening, as
the wedge recedes a wintry mix will take over, with freezing rain
and even some periods of sleet mixing in, especially east of the
Blue Ridge.

There is good agreement amongst the models that the low pressure
center will quickly move east Friday evening, so the wintry mix
portion of the event will be shorter lived than the snow portion
earlier in the day as precipitation will cut off overnight Friday.
Most of the forecast area will receive a trace to 2" of snow on
Friday, with highest amounts along the southern Blue Ridge. A few
hundredths of an inch of ice may cling to largely raised surfaces,
but the forecast favors most impacts coming from the snowfall.

Saturday will be mostly quiet with zonal upper flow and little to
speak of in terms of synoptic features. Temperatures will drop well
into the 20s each night. Highs on Friday will hover around the
freezing point, allowing for the snow and transition to a mix.
Saturday will warm back into the 40s for most.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Low probability of light rain for the area on Sunday, potentially
some light freezing rain for some parts early in the day.
2. Low probability of light rain or light snow Sunday night into
Monday for mainly western and northern sections.
3. Dry Tuesday.
4. Low probability of light rain/snow Tuesday night/Wednesday for
areas west of the Blue Ridge.

For Sunday, 500 mb geopotential height pattern across North America
look to reflect a closed low near Hudson Bay, a general area of
longwave troughiness across central CONUS, with a weak disturbance
progressing through the southern jet along northern sections of the
Gulf of America. Additionally, riding within the flow around the
closed Canadian low, a shortwave trough may be progressing through
the Great Lakes region.

For Monday, the longwave axis is expected to shift eastward with its
axis over or just east of our region by the evening hours. Another
shortwave trough may be heading into the eastern Great Lakes.
Ridging is expected over western CONUS.

On Tuesday, the Great Lakes shortwave is expected to pass north of
our region over PA/NY. The northern jet shows signs of increased
activity with another shortwave trough pushing through the northern
extent of the ridge over the Dakotas, with another farther upstream
near British Columbia.

For Wednesday, a the shortwave trough over the Dakotas progresses
eastward, there are indications it may deepen as it reaches the
Great Lakes region with an associated trough axis extending
potential as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley.

A look at the 29 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday values ranging from -3C to 0C,
north to south across the region. For Monday, values dip a bit,
reaching -5C to -3C, ne-sw by evening. For Tuesday, look for a small
uptick with values similar to those from Monday. For Wednesday, the
upward trend continues with a range of 0C to +2C, n-s by evening.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. With the
passage of system south of the region within the southern stream on
Sunday, and the passage of the main upper trough Sunday into Monday,
small chances of precipitation will be in our forecast during this
time frame. The activity on Sunday will have a better chance of
having some mixed wintry precipitation associated with it, given a
an area of warm air aloft above potential freezing or sub-freezing
surface temperatures in the morning. For Sunday, as the low level
flow becomes more north to northwest with better cold air advection,
there is a better likelihood of a rain vs snow forecast.

For Tuesday, drier weather is expected, but it may be short lived.
We will have to watch the evolution of the shortwave trough that is
expected to deepen over the Great Lakes. The extent to which it does
develop, and in turn potential develop an associated cold front,
will play a role in our forecast for Wednesday. Our current forecast
will reflect southeast West Virginia potentially seeing some light
snow from this system Tuesday night. For Wednesday, potential shifts
east to the crest of the Blue Ridge with a mix of light rain or
light snow.

Temperatures are expected to generally be a few degrees below normal
for this time of the year through the period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is low to moderate.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions for all terminals later this afternoon and
evening as cloud cover erodes. Some low level clouds are keeping
locations such as KBLF below VFR status but this should change
in the next few hours. Recent satellite imagery already shows
clouds dissipating towards the western part of the region. No
precipitation is expected thanks to the presence of a high
pressure system. A dry cold front will pass through on Thursday
and will bring some gusty winds of 15-25 mph along and west of
the Blue Ridge. By the end of the TAF forecast, cloud cover is
expected to pick back up as another system approaches.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

On Friday another chance of winter weather is possible. Confidence
is increasing on this being a snow event and less of a freezing
rain issue. There is still disagreement with models on what to
expect with this system in regards to accumulation.
Nevertheless, even with light snow, visibilities will tank and
bring all terminals to sub-VFR status. There will be another
break and quiet period before another potential winter system
arrives by early next week.

Confidence in the Aviation Forecast for the next 24 hours is high.
Confidence in the Extended Aviation Forecast is low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CG