020
FXUS61 KRNK 071804
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
104 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching the region will bring rain chances
late in the evening and through the overnight hours. It dries
out Saturday morning. A second system moves in Saturday night
leading to additional rain chances on Sunday, though less. An
arctic front moves through Sunday night into Monday, which will
bring the first snow flakes to mountains, and some accumulation
in the higher ridges.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Showers move into the area late in the evening.

A cold front will slowly approach the region from the west today
as an associated surface low tracks east across the northern
Great Lakes area. This will bring showers to most areas west of
the Blue Ridge this evening. As the front initially enters SE
West Virginia, some mid level instability is expected to be in
place, so a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out.

The cold front looks to continue to push through the area
during the overnight hours; however, as much of the upper level
forcing for ascent lifts well north of the region, the front is
expected to dissipate as it tracks east through the Mid-Atlantic
states. This will likely keep rainfall totals light, with little
or no measurable rainfall expected east of the Blue Ridge. For
areas west of the Blue Ridge, around 0.10-0.40 inches are
expected. A few localized areas may see up to 0.50 inches of
rainfall during the overnight hours.

Lows tonight will be on the mild site with mid to upper 40s west
to lower 50s east.

High pressure moves in Saturday with mostly sunny skies and
light winds. Look for temperatures to rebound into the 60s in
the mountains to lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Cold front to bring in windy and frigid conditions early next
week, along with mountain snow showers.

An active weather period with a taste of winter is set to arrive for
early next week. A mid-level trough will dip south all the way to
Florida as a cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing
significantly colder and drier air to the region, and much of the
United States. On Sunday, a line of rain showers will likely pass
through the Mid-Atlantic, but mostly bring precipitation for the
more far western and mountains counties. Total rain accumulation
will likely range between a trace and 0.10". Once the front passes,
winds escalate and become dominantly northwesterly. A large pressure
gradient between a surface low over New England and a strong surface
high (1040mb) over the Great Plains will provide plenty of cold air
advection for the eastern United States. The noticeable change in
winds will begin around Sunday night with sustained winds of 10-15
mph gusting up to 20-25 mph. As usual, winds will be stronger along
and west of the Blue Ridge than east of these mountains and the
strongest winds will likely be on ridgetops given the wind
direction. Needless to say, things will get very cold. While Sunday
afternoon highs will range between the upper 50s and lower 70s,
Monday morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s,
and Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the teens to upper 20s.
Factoring the wind, wind chills will be even lower. For Monday
morning, wind chill temperatures will be in the teens and 20s along
and west of the Blue Ridge and in the lower 30s towards the east.
For Tuesday morning, the coldest morning, wind chill values will be
the single digits and teens west of the Blue Ridge and in the teens
and lower 20s in the Piedmont/Foothills. Monday night into the
Tuesday morning there is a chance of snow along and west of the Blue
Ridge thanks to mid-level vorticity and the sub-freezing
temperatures. Current snowfall amount estimates range between 1-3"
in areas close to the West Virginia border, especially in Western
Greenbrier County. Other areas west of the Blue Ridge don`t have a
strong chance of snow (no more than 30%) but do not be surprised if
some flakes sneak into the New River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EST Friday...

Key Points:

1. Low wind chills expected Tuesday morning.
2. Dry for much of the region through the period with moderating
temperatures.

A look a the 7 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night, a deep upper low will be positioned
over northern Quebec. A broad longwave trough will be associated
with this low, covering most of eastern Canada and the north-central
and northeastern US. A couple of shortwave trough will be embedded
within this broader pattern. One is expected to be over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and another over New England, during the evening
hours. To our west a highly amplified ridge is expected to be over
the west coast of the US, with an equally amplified trough over the
Gulf of Alaska. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the Upper Mississippi
shortwave progresses east, and amplifies over the east coast by the
early evening. The parent low over northern Quebec displays little
movement. Likewise, the pairing of the highly amplified trough-ridge
pattern over the Pacific Northwest, shows little change. For
Thursday/Thursday night, the trough axis over the east coast pivots
northeast, while also becoming negatively tilted over New England
and the Canadian Maritimes. The trough-ridge pairing in the west
makes limited progression eastward. For Friday, the primary trough
axis continues its slow pivot northeast becoming centered over
Newfoundland. The ridge in the west becomes less amplified and
progresses to over the Plains States. The trough over the Gulf of
Alaska shifts to over the US west coast.

At the surface for Tuesday/Tuesday night, high pressure will
continue build south of the region in the wake of the Sunday
night/Monday cold frontal passage. A second cold front will be
moving into the Great Lakes area Tuesday night. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, this next cold front crosses the area. In
response, the northern extent of the area of high pressure is
shunted south. For Thursday/Thursday night, high pressure begins to
build back into the region as the cold front heads into the western
Atlantic. On Friday, high pressure shifts only slightly east, with
our region remaining on the north side of its center. Low pressure
and an associated cold front develop along the lee of the Rockies.

A look at the 7 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures on Tuesday beginning the day within the -8C
to -6C, north to south, across the region. These values correspond
to the 2.5 to 10 percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology. As the
day progresses, values trend higher, reaching -1C to +2C, ne-sw, by
the early evening. Heading into and through Wednesday, values
continue to moderate, reaching +2C to +5C, ne-sw, by the evening
hours. On Thursday, values slip slightly to the +1C to +4C, ne-sw.
Finally, for Friday values climb into the +5C to +8C, ne-sw, by the
evening.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. For
Tuesday morning, the region will still be within a gusty northwest
flow pattern in the wake of the exiting cold front, and the building
of high pressure to our south. The combination of these gusty winds,
and temperatures well below normal, will provide for low wind
chills. Around the time of the morning commute, wind chill values
will be in the single digits and low 10s for the mountains and teens
to near 20 for the Piedmont. As the day progresses, winds will back
to the southwest, helping to bring an element of warm air advection
to at least western sections of the region. While wind chill values
will increase, they are expected to only reach the 20s to lower 30s
across the mountains at peak heating of the day -- upper 30s to
lower 40s across the Piedmont. Tuesday is expected to be dry with
the upper level support well to our east and winds losing their
preferred orientation for upslope precipitation formation.

For Wednesday, temperatures will trend upward as warm air advection
continues on the north side of the surface high, and on the east
side of an approaching cold front. This same cold front will cross
the region Wednesday night with perhaps a few rain/snow showers
across western Greenbrier County, WV.

For Thursday into Friday dry weather is expected with high pressure
covering much of the eastern US. With our region still on its
northern flanks, our winds will generally be from the southwest or
west with warm air advection over the region. Temperatures are
expected to be normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions across much of the area, though some MVFR cigs
still remain from UKF/MWK to MTV/SIF. Overall looking at VFR
into this evening. Showers will enter the BLF/LWB area between
00z-03z, reaching ROA/BCB by 05z. Confidence low for showers at
LYH/DAN. Impacts from showers may be reduced vsbys to MVFR
mainly BLF/LWB. Could have some gusty winds ahead of the front
and with the showers out of the southwest, up to 20kts.

As the front moves across cigs should drop to lower end MVFR to
IFR in the mountains but remain at or above 3kft from ROA east.

Skies clear out going into Saturday morning after 12z with
lighter winds.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another front arrives Saturday night into Sunday with widely
scattered showers and some MVFR or lower potential cigs.

The big change will be the arctic front tracking in Sunday night
into Monday with snow showers and IFR vsbys/cigs possible at
BLF/LWB during this time, with flurries/snow showers possible at
least toward BCB/ROA Monday with potential MVFR cigs.

Thing improve cig wise Tue-Wed, but gusty winds will likely
occur through the middle of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1145 AM EST Friday...

Wetting showers are likely in the mountains tonight but less as
you head east of I-81. As we head through the weekend into early
next week a colder air mass should be putting a lid on wildfires
to a point. However, winds will be picking up after the front by
Monday.

Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the middle to latter
half of next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work week.
This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a westerly
wind which will frequently have daytime gusts close to 20 to 25 mph
in the mountains and 15 mph to 20 mph across the Piedmont. Lowering
daily minimum RH values, and subsidence in the east thanks to the
wind orientation, will help for drying of fuels. These same fuels
will be the ones which are expected to receive the least amount of
precipitation from the systems for tonight, and Sunday into Monday.
We are still too early for high confidence in an enhanced fire
danger scenario, but its potential is one worth monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...EB/PW/WP
FIRE WEATHER...DS/WP