417
FXUS61 KRNK 051920
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Saturday looks to be cool but dry across the area, with cloudy
conditions expected to continue across much of the area through
early afternoon before some breaks start to develop. A upper
level low looks to push through the region late Sunday into
Monday, which could bring some chances for light rain and snow
showers across the region. High pressure looks to settle into
the region behind this low through the middle of the week before
an additional disturbance potentially moves north of the region
late next week bringing the chances for rain and snow showers
once again to the area.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Freezing drizzle/fog looks possible overnight.

Upper level troughing looks to remain in place across the
eastern conus on Saturday. Mid and upper level shortwave energy
will continue to move along the axis of this trough and across
the region during this timeframe. While moisture will not be
present through Saturday, a thick cloud deck is expected to
remain in place for much of the day on Saturday until a brief
transitory high pressure system skirts through the area leading
to some breaks in the clouds towards the evening hours tomorrow.
Temperatures through the remainder of this evening and through
the overnight hours don`t look to change across the region, with
many sitting at or below freezing thanks to the fresh snowpack
and residual cloud cover. These temperatures will generally stay
at or just below freezing through the overnight, with 1-3
degrees of cooling possible. With near saturated surface level
RH values through the overnight, some freezing drizzle and fog
looks possible across the area. Overall, with confidence being
low in freezing drizzle and fog forming overnight, there will
likely be no accumulation for much of the area. If confidence
grows in freezing drizzle and fog likely forming, there could
be the potential need for a special weather statement or another
winter weather advisory.

Southwesterly wind, and some breaks during the afternoon hours
on Saturday will allow for some heating across the region.
Afternoon highs look to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s
west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 40s east of the Blue Ridge.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quieter weekend with below normal temperatures

2) Front on Sunday night/Monday morning will bring rain and
transition to snow

There won`t be much time between systems this weekend after an
active Friday brought snow to much of Virginia. The first half of
Sunday will be quiet ahead of a weak front. A southern stream system
caused by a small shortwave will first begin to spread rain over the
CWA starting Sunday night. As the front passes overnight and Monday
morning, much of that rain will transition to snow or a mix of rain
and snow. The expected period of snow is not very long, and with the
low QPF forecasted with this system, accumulation will be light or
non-existent. Maybe a dusting on rooves and railings east of the
Blue Ridge where a mix is more likely. A few tenths to an inch may
fall in the highest elevation portions of the mountains in our
forecast area. Expect precipitation to end around sunset Monday as
high pressure takes hold again in the post-frontal environment.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Bigger system in the mid-week may miss to our north

2) Late week front will follow shortly behind

High pressure will disperse on Wednesday as a deepening low pressure
system passes over the Great Lakes region. Previous model runs had
this system moving a bit further south, and thus allowing its
associated front to impact the Mid-Atlantic more robustly. Latest
runs, however, exhibit a northwestward turn early on, pulling the
system up and away from the Mid-Atlantic. This may be an outlier
run, so PoPs have not been entirely removed from this time period,
but they have been reduced.

This system is quickly followed up on Friday by another system that
looks to stay a bit further south, passing more through the Ohio
valley, bringing the front into a more direct interaction with our
area. P-types are still unclear for both of these systems, but it is
mid-December and a swift warm up is unlikely given the overall
synoptic pattern, so that will be a closely monitored topic in
upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...

MVFR to LIFR restrictions are expected to continue through the
majority of the TAF period for all terminals. Guidance seems to
suggest that sub 500 CIGs will develop across the entire region
this evening and look to linger through about 13-16 UTC Saturday
before a gradual lifting of the cloud deck combined with breaks
in the clouds allows for more MVFR to VFR conditions to return
to the region. Along with low ceilings, visibilities also look
to drop areawide with 2-5 mile visibility widespread across the
region. These visibilities look to gradually lift through the
early morning hours Saturday. The one caveat to these reduced
visibilities, is that they will be associated with freezing
fog/drizzle through the overnight period. This may lead to some
icing on aircraft that could be lingering on the runway too
long. Deicing measures may need to be taken at terminals for
aircraft to takeoff. Winds look to remain calm to out of the
west/southwest at 5 knots or less through the period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Persistent low level cloud cover this weekend and another system
early next week may keep all terminals sub-VFR for a while. It may
not be until higher pressure moves in around mid-next week that
skies become clear, but another potential winter system may return
later in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...EB/PM