078
FXUS61 KRNK 022357
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
757 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in from the north will result in an
extended period of dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
The next chance of rain is next week, mainly associated with
the passage of a cold front during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Forecast was slightly edited to take recent temperatures and model
guidance into account. Previous discussion is on track for this
evening and overnight. Fog will likely be limited to rivers and
bodies of water but there is some uncertainty on the spatial
extent as model guidance struggled with how low level cloud
cover would affect fog development.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message: Dry high pressure brings Fall perfection.

High pressure will ensure fair weather into the upcoming
weekend, featuring mostly clear skies, light winds, and
comfortable temperatures. Can`t rule out some river fog
at night and development of brief period of low stratus,
but overall looking at prime weather for any outdoor plans.

Refreshingly cool temperatures expected tonight with lows
in the 40s. Mild temperatures Friday with afternoon highs
in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

 - The dry, tranquil weather pattern will persist through the
weekend, leading to a noticeable daily temperature swing.

On Saturday, a surface high-pressure system will be situated
directly over the area, guaranteeing a day of fair weather. The high
pressures influence will lead to a cool night in the 40s across
much of the region, especially in the valleys. However, the
accompanying dry air and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures
to warm quickly, resulting in a pleasant afternoon with highs
reaching the low to mid 70s.

By Sunday, the high-pressure center will begin to shift offshore,
moving off the Virginia coast. This subtle shift will allow for a
light southerly flow to creep into the atmosphere. This will again
lead to a cool night in the 40s, but with the continued sunshine,
afternoon highs will warm a degree or two, potentially reaching the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

 - The early part of the week will see a slow transition from dry,
warm conditions to a midweek rain event, followed by a refreshing
cooldown.

On Monday, the weather will be influenced by a high-pressure system
positioned off the Virginia coast. Meanwhile, a disturbance tracking
inland across South Carolina and Georgia will pump moisture
northward. This will lead to a noticeable increase in humidity,
gradually saturating the atmosphere and causing increasing clouds
across Southwest Virginia, Northwest North Carolina, and Southeast
West Virginia.

Tuesday will see the high pressure retreat even further out to sea,
strengthening the return flow of moist air. This will be enough to
generate light rain chances, which will increase in the afternoon.
Despite the rising clouds and moisture, temperatures will remain
elevated, with highs on both Monday and Tuesday ranging in the 70s,
and possibly climbing into the 80s across Southside Virginia.

The major change arrives on Wednesday as a cold front is expected to
sweep across the region. This front will bring a high likelihood of
showers, and enough atmospheric instability could develop to support
a few embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
This rain event is forecast to be beneficial, with preliminary
rainfall amounts ranging from a half to one inch.

A distinct autumn feel will take over by Thursday. A cool, dry high-
pressure system will move in behind the departing cold front,
completely scouring out the moisture and dropping temperatures
noticeably. Highs on Thursday are expected to settle into the 60s,
making for a crisp and clear day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR skies for most of the forecast period due to relatively
small cloud cover and a stable atmospheric environment. Winds
will be light but may change in direction due to a surface high
pressure system wedging itself into the mountains. Weather
models had some difficulty in assessing fog formation during the
overnight and early morning hours of Friday. Like Thursday
morning, fog is anticipated near bodies of water such as rives
and lakes, but fog will be competing with some low level stratus
clouds that may form between the Mountains of Northwest NC and
southeast WV. The best likelihood of fog, reduced visibilities,
and sub-VFR skies will be at KLWB and KBCB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

So long as the high pressure influences our airspace, a repeated
pattern of mostly clear skies and overnight fog is possible for
the next few days. The extent of fog may be limited depending
on how dry conditions get. The next best chance of precipitation
will be the middle of next week when another frontal system
arrives.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CG/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...CG