430
FXUS66 KSEW 251833
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1033 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will return to the area today, with lowland rain and
mountain snow before becoming mostly rain throughout the day
Wednesday. Unsettled weather is expected through the holiday before
drier conditions start to emerge for the weekend. The trade off for
the calmer weather will be colder overnight temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The lull in activity continues over W WA this early morning. Current
satellite shows plenty of high to mid level clouds overhead while
latest radar imagery suggests that there may be some low clouds in
play as well. However, the former is preventing the latter from
creating widespread fog...even though some areas may experience some
patches here and there.

Models remain in good agreement with activity likely holding off
until the late morning for much of the area...although along the
coast could see rain start in the mid-morning hours /perhaps toward
the tail end of the morning commute period/. From there, soggy
conditions settle in for the rest of the day before tapering off
overnight and brief dry conditions emerge by Wednesday morning. Now,
the main concern with this initial system will be wintery precip in
the Cascades. QPFs have increased from solutions 24 hours ago, even
while the timing for snow levels to lift has remained generally on
track. This looks to give rise to the prospect where amounts will
overpower temps, at least initially, not only allowing for snowfall
hanging on a little bit longer than one would typically expect, but
also a transition over to mixed or icy precip. That said, inherited
Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades of Snohomish, King, Pierce
and Lewis counties looks good, with the higher snowfall amounts
expected to focus on Snohomish and King counties. These two areas
could see 6-8 inches of snow accumulation while the remainder max
out around 6-ish.

Wednesday morning starts off ridge-ish, but a secondary upper level
low shifts toward the coast bringing a return to rainfall in the mid
to late afternoon. Models seem to have finally reached a consensus
with the track of this system, guiding it almost directly over the
Columbia river. This will keep not only the remainder of Wednesday
but also the bulk of Thursday wet. It is worth noting that rainfall
amounts with this secondary system do not appear to be as much as
today`s system, with the ensemble mean Wednesday proving to be half
of the value of today. That said, the precip is more drawn out with
the secondary system, over the span of 36 hours, give or take.

Temps today will be akin to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two
cooler with much of the lowlands still stuck in the mid to upper
40s. The benefit of the passing warm front, aside from the rising
snow levels discussed above, will be a slight boost to the daytime
highs for both Wednesday and Thursday, with each day finding
themselves in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

18

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precip activity expected to taper off throughout Thursday night and
into Friday morning before becoming generally dry by noon. This is
thanks to an upper level ridge building over the eastern Pacific.
Deterministic long range models and ensembles remain in sync with
each other, keeping the remainder of the extended period fairly
inactive as this ridge continues to hold court and remain almost
stationary. That said, there are hints of shortwave systems
potentially bringing Slight Chance to low-end Chance PoPs to the
area toward the end of the forecast period...Sunday to Monday-ish.
NBM /and thus the forecast/ hang on to PoPs perhaps a little bit
longer than current solutions suggest, which is fine given that only
24 hours ago solutions were utterly scattershot. Should the current
solutions remain consistent, future forecasts will likely see these
PoPs erode.

The trade off for the less active weather will be cooler
temperatures. Daytime highs only take a minor hit, generally staying
in the mid to upper 40s for the remainder of the forecast cycle. The
impact will be felt in the overnight lows, which will see temps get
down into the lower to mid 30s...aside from water adjacent
locations, which will be just a touch higher in the mid to upper 30s.

18

&&

.AVIATION...Increasing rain and lowering clouds across the
region as a frontal system moves inland today. Expect ceilings to
lower to predominantly MVFR (with pockets of local IFR) through the
afternoon. Expect the moist air mass to persist and lower ceilings
are favored with widespread IFR conditions overnight and little
improvement through the first part of Wednesday with additional
showers as the front pushes inland.

KSEA...Expect light winds this morning becoming increasingly
southeasterly this afternoon at 5-10 kt. Low MVFR ceilings arrive
toward midday with rain. IFR ceilings likely overnight into early
Wednesday, with only slow improvement as showers continue.    12

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will increase today as a stronger Pacific
frontal system moves in - Small Craft Advisories are in effect.
Winds will ease late tonight into early Wednesday. Expect elevated
winds and seas on Thursday as another strong system reaches western
WA. The flow will turn more northerly and offshore late in the week,
with Fraser River outflow winds possible over the weekend. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A stronger weather system will move into Western Washington today,
with continued precipitation at times through Thursday. Between the
relatively quick flash of precip today and the more drawn out event
Wednesday and Thursday, QPF amounts remain generally consistent,
perhaps a little increased. This will still allow for area rivers to
see rises the rest of this week. However, the breaks in activity
could be an offsetting measure. For that reason, the flood threat
for most rivers remains minimal. The Skokomish remains the outlier,
as forecasts continue to advertise river levels cresting just at
flood stage or a little lower. Given the borderline nature of latest
forecasts, inherited Flood Potential Outlook for Mason County
continues to look on track and will remain unaltered at this time.
This, as well as other rivers, will continue to be monitored.

18

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Cascades
     of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
     Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
     Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
     Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
     Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$