Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
609 FXUS66 KSEW 150417 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 817 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A draped stationary front will continue to produce widespread precipitation across western Washington through the weekend, with heavier precipitation wrapping up by early Saturday afternoon. Breezy winds are also expected going into tonight for most of Puget Sound and some coastal areas. Conditions will mostly dry for the first part of next week, although active weather is expected to return by midweek, along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A stationary/warm front remains draped across NW Washington this afternoon, as an upper level trough swings through. Moderate rain continues across Puget Sound into the North Interior/Cascades this afternoon. Rain rates of 0.01-0.10"/hr are expected with the shower activity going into tonight and Saturday. Most of the activity going into Saturday will be confined to the Cascades and Olympics/Coast, with amounts not expected to be anywhere near the rain totals picked up so far for Friday. A few lingering impacts from the accumulation of steady rain may be lingering (such as rises in streams, some ponding of roadways, unstable soils, etc.). Additional details on rivers can be found in the hydrology discussion below. Snow levels remain high going through the weekend, so any snow that does fall will remain at high elevations (above 7,000 ft). In addition to rain, breezy southwest winds are expected to pick up this afternoon into tonight in the warm sector. The primary windy spots with this system are Puget Sound, and along the Pacific Coast, with most likely an area from Everett down to DuPont seeing gusts peak around midnight at around 30 mph. There is a 10% chance the gusts could be as high as 35 mph. The Cascades and South Interior will see breezy winds now through early Saturday morning (as winds elsewhere also decrease around the same time). Late Saturday into Sunday is expected to remain overcast with showery conditions continuing through the weekend as the upper level jet zones out. Again rain rates remain extremely light with rates not exceeding a couple hundredths of an inch. Another front/trough approaches Sunday evening, which will increase the chance of precipitation regionwide. The rates again remain light, although the Olympics/Cascades could see them approach 0.05-0.10"/hr with some orographic enhancing. Winds late Saturday into Sunday will become very light out of the south (5-10 mph or so). Highs in the lowlands/coast today through Sunday remain in the mid 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. HPR && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A trough is expected to swing through Monday with the continuation of the chance of elevated showers. Cool air is expected to follow the trough/front Monday evening as snow levels fall to around 3,500 ft. Chances of precipitation late Monday into the first part of Wednesday remain low (20-30%). Ensembles are in good agreement of a low dropping down from Alaska Wednesday into the end of the week, which will increase precipitation chances towards the end of the week. Temperatures will drop considerably post-front Monday night, with highs through the end of the week only the upper 40s/low 50s, and some low temperatures will likely dip into the 30s. HPR && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft with frontal system dissipating over area tonight into Saturday morning. Light flow in the lower levels becoming onshore Saturday. Light precip/mist has kept lowered ceilings and hindered visibilities this evening into IFR/LIFR. Latest guidance suggests these conditions may continue into Saturday morning. Conditions will be slow to improve Saturday afternoon, but not expecting to improve to VFR. Southerly winds will increase after 05z-06z to 8-15 kt, gusting to 15-25 kt for Puget Sound terminals and HQM. Winds will begin to subside Saturday morning. As for other terminals, winds will be light between 2-5 kt. KSEA...Lower ceilings and visibilities will likely persist through Saturday morning, although may see conditions bounce back and forth at times. Guidance hints at slow improvement Saturday afternoon and likely only improving to MVFR. Southerly winds will increase to 8-12 kt and possibly gusting up to 20 kt after 06z. Winds will subside Saturday morning to 4-6 kt and become light and variable Saturday evening. Felton/29 && .MARINE... System dissipating over the inland waters tonight. Weak high pressure building over the coastal waters Saturday. Another system will move through the waters Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. High pressure returning for Monday and Tuesday. Next system arriving late Wednesday. Seas 6 to 8 feet into next week. Possible small craft advisory winds over the coastal waters with the system Wednesday. Felton && .HYDROLOGY... The latest rain storm is starting to leave the area this afternoon after laying down since midnight and additional 1+ inches of rain in many lowland locations and 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. Another storm pulse is slated to impact the area overnight into Saturday morning with 1/2 to 3/4 inches in the lowlands and 1/2 to 11/2 inches in the mountains. Many rivers have crested for the day with additional rises expected over the next few days. Rivers will need to be monitored for any possible flooding but flooding is not expected at this time - including the Skokomish River. A drier period is expected starting Sunday. JBB && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$