Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
042 FXUS66 KSEW 151720 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 920 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday with a front draped over Western Washington. A weak frontal system will move through late Sunday into early next week for additional precipitation. A brief period of dry weather possible early Wednesday before another system moves towards the area on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast discussion below remains on track for the morning update (this update includes refreshed aviation, and hydrology sections). HPR Steady precipitation continues across portions of Western Washington this morning, particularly over the Cascades. There remains some rain shadowing over central Puget Sound due to westerly flow aloft. Unsettled weather with rain at times will continue through today, although QPF amounts generally become lighter by the afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 50s today with the majority of the area in the warm sector as the next frontal system approaches offshore. A brief period of drier weather possible for the interior tonight into Sunday morning. Due to abundant residual moisture at the surface, as well as light winds, any clearing will allow for fog to develop early Sunday morning. Rain then returns Sunday morning for the Olympic Peninsula and Sunday afternoon for the interior. The trough offshore is rather elongated on Sunday, and most of the energy associated with the trough dives southwards into California on Monday, resulting in continued precipitation at times through Monday, but little to no impacts expected. Snow levels around 7000 feet on Sunday will drop to 4000 feet by late Monday. However, minor QPF amounts will lead to only light snowfall in the higher elevations. Temperatures slowly fall Sunday into Monday with highs on Monday in the low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The aforementioned trough will linger over the Pacific Northwest into Tuesday with an embedded upper low over southern British Columbia. Light precipitation will likely continue into Tuesday, particularly over the Cascades. Transient ridging will then build into Western Washington late Tuesday into early Wednesday for a period of brief drier weather. Will need to monitor the potential for fog development again Wednesday morning. The next weather system then looks to approach the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday offshore. Ensembles maintain increased precipitation potential during this period, with a majority of the ensemble members leading to more of an elongated trough again, with most of the energy offshore of Oregon and California by late Thursday. Temperatures look to continue to be near normal much of next week. JD && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly tonight as upper level trough digs south well offshore. Light flow in the lower levels through Sunday afternoon. Wide variety of ceilings this morning with MVFR ceilings at best across the area. Areas of LIFR ceilings west of Puget Sound and over the North Puget Sound. Slow improvement this afternoon with most locations in MVFR by 00z. Not much change this evening before ceilings lower overnight with areas of IFR ceilings by 12z Sunday. KSEA...MVFR ceilings into early Sunday morning. Ceilings lowering to IFR around 12z Sunday. South wind 4 to 8 knots becoming light northeast after 00z. Felton && .MARINE... Weak high pressure settling over area waters today. A sub 995 mb low center will track into Northern Vancouver Island Sunday night as its associated front sweeps across the area. Here we could see the next best chance of SCA winds for the coastal waters. High pressure returning for Monday and Tuesday. Next system arriving late Wednesday. Seas 6 to 8 feet into next week. Possible small craft advisory winds again over the coastal waters with the system Wednesday. McMillian && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rain over the Central Cascades has come to an end this morning. The Tolt and upper reaches of the Skykomish have crested. The Snoqualmie will crest later today. No flooding forecast. The Snoqualmie at Carnation could crest about a foot short of flood stage late this afternoon/early this evening. Another weak weather system is expected late Sunday into early next week, but rainfall amounts will remain light. Drier weather will briefly return late Tuesday into midweek. Felton/JD && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$