561
FXUS66 KSEW 030424
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
824 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Next system moving inland mainly to the south Monday. The
system will try and lift north into Western Washington Monday
night into Tuesday. Organized front arriving Tuesday night into
Wednesday but with the jet aimed into Northern California and
Southern Oregon this system will be weakening as it moves into
the state. A more consolidated system moving into the area late
in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track as shower activity
dissipates over the northern interior; no updates this evening.
Otherwise, much of the region is seeing a break in the action
today. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight.


We`re under SW flow on Monday with moisture spreading up from
the south. Areas from around Everett north may not see much rain
at all. May see light snow at White Pass and Paradise on Mount
Rainier during the afternoon but snow levels will be rising
through the evening.

We`ll see a short break in the weather on Tuesday with upper
level ridging, then more wet and locally windy weather Tuesday
night as a stronger Pacific storm system moves in. The windiest
areas will be along the coast and western strait Tuesday night.

33

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather pattern remains active through the end of the week
with additional systems clipping the region. We`re in for more
wet and locally windy conditions through the period. Back-to-
back periods of moderate to heavy rain will force rises on the
Skokomish River in Mason County with flooding possible. Total
rainfall over the lowlands ranges from 1-2" in the interior to
up to 4" along the coast. Meanwhile, the coast and strait will
see high astronomical tides starting Wednesday (and possibly
Thursday) with minor coastal flooding possible. Moving on, the
pattern looks quieter over the weekend with high pressure
building over the Pac NW.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Monday as another upper trough
approaches the region. Surface winds are light and variable with
speeds 5 kts or less.

Mostly VFR conditions in place this evening, although some transient
MVFR/IFR conditions and fog are emerging in isolated spots. BLI saw
this happen for a brief period of time...so terminals that are more
prone to fog have had TEMPO groups inserted to cover this
possibility. This appears to only be a short-term issue though. With
significant advent of high to mid level clouds, this should limit
if not eliminate fog potential overnight. Will continue to monitor
just in case fog proves stubborn. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
to persist into Monday morning. Monday afternoon sees rainfall
moving up from the south, and as such rain and lower cigs will
spread from south to north. While northern terminals may see cigs
lower, they look to remain VFR with current model guidance. Southern
terminals...mainly OLM and HQM, but possibly going as far north as
SeaTac...could see MVFR conditions emerge with rain by late
afternoon/early evening.

KSEA...VFR conditions this evening through Monday morning. Lowered
ceilings and vis look to return Monday afternoon as rainfall
resettles across the region. Latest models show cigs falling to
borderline VFR/MVFR conditions Monday evening around 03Z. North to
northeasterly winds with speeds 4-8 kts.

18

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridging over the coastal waters will shift inland this
evening with light offshore flow developing. A weak surface trough
moving northeastward off the Oregon coast will dissipate as it moves
onshore over Western Washington later on Monday evening. A broad and
deep area of low pressure will move into the offshore waters on
Tuesday evening. A vigorous frontal system associated with a sub 980
millibar surface low lifting northward toward Haida Gwaii is
expected to produce headlines for all waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Gales are likely for the coastal waters as well as
the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters during this period. A
series of additional fronts will follow into the end of the week
maintaining a very active weather pattern.

High seas will maintain over the coastal waters throughout the week
ahead. Seas 12 to 15 feet this evening will gradually subside below
10 feet briefly Monday night or early Tuesday before building back
to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday through the rest of the week.

McMillian

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Back-to-back wet Pacific storm system will keep the rivers
flowing off the Olympics and Cascades running high over the
latter half of the week. Flooding is possible on Skokomish River
in Mason County. Several rivers will be near action stage with
a few within (Snoqualmie, Skykomish, Snohomish). Most rivers
will crest on Friday and then recede over the weekend.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
     Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$