903
FXUS66 KSEW 071659
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
859 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

.UPDATE...
Shower activity will continue to taper off throughout the day
today, primarily over higher terrain. Any rain and snow that
continues to fall will generate light accumulations. The Winter
Storm Warning has been cancelled for the North Cascades this
morning as precipitation decreases and the convergence zone
showers dissipate. The remainder of the forecast remains on
track today with mild temperatures and quieter weather settling
into the region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-trough will exit the region today as ridging builds
offshore. This ridge will progress gently across the PNW
over the weekend bringing drier weather. Active, but generally
low impact systems will return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today will be the start of a transition with zonal flow aloft
turning more northwesterly as an upper-ridge builds offshore.
An occluded front that brought yesterday`s rainfall is now east
of the Cascades this morning. Now, scattered showers remain in
it`s wake, persisting through the day while decreasing in
coverage. A Winter Storm Warning over the North Cascades has
been cancelled this morning as snowfall winds down. The High
Surf Advisory for the coast will also be allowed to expire later
this morning, but a Coastal Flood Advisory is expected to remain
in effect into the afternoon for Grays Harbor County. A Flood
Warning remains in effect for the Skokomish River in Mason
County until Saturday morning.

Dry conditions rebound tonight and last into Sunday as the
aforementioned upper-ridge builds into the region. Temperatures
won`t stray too far from average, but highs on Sunday could
approach or exceed 60 degrees as large-scale subsidence ensues.
Morning fog will be the primary concern during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak front will arrive on Sunday night as the pattern turns
more active. However, little to no impacts are expected.
Probabilistic guidance shows occasional bouts of precipitation,
but the amplitude and timing will limit the flood potential.
Additionally, winds will generally remain below concerning
levels and the combination of pressure and astronomical tides
should keep water levels along the coast below flood thresholds.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly
through the day today as an upper level trough exits the region
and upper level ridging starts to build in. Mostly VFR this
morning with areas of high end MVFR in shower activity
gradually tapering off throughout the day. Otherwise, more
concern lies tonight into early Saturday morning as the
conditions and probabilities for fog/low ceilings increase.

Southwesterly winds have remained breezy this morning, with
some terminals still seeing gusts to 20 kt. Winds will
gradually decrease throughout the day, easing to 5-10 kt between
18-21Z. Winds will then become light at 6 kt or less by late
tonight, helping to promote fog/low ceiling potential.

KSEA...VFR conditions continue this morning with light rain
showers possible at times, though shower activity will taper
through the day. Southwesterly winds occasionally gusty to 20
kt this morning, but will decrease through the day, becoming
6-10 kt between 18-21Z. Winds will become light overnight, with
a pretty good signal for fog/stratus development in the vicinity
of the terminal by early Saturday morning.

14/15

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have largely eased over the waters this morning. Seas do
remain elevated and as a result the small craft advisories
continue for the coastal waters and the west entrance of the
Strait of Juan de Fuca today. Seas will hold in the 15-19 ft
range this morning and will be slow to subside today before
gradually reaching 10 ft early Saturday.

Expect a lull in the active pattern continuing late today into the
weekend with high pressure building over the coastal waters. The
only exception may be some breezy winds near the western Strait
tomorrow with offshore winds developing. Otherwise, a splitting
front approaches late in the weekend with disturbances brushing the
outer coastal waters on the way to the B.C. coastline. Additional
disturbances may reach the waters early next week, though confidence
is low in timing any particular period of concern.

Cullen

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Skokomish River at
Potlach, which crested in moderate flood stage.  The river will
recede throughout the day and will fall below flood stage by
Saturday morning.

Otherwise, widespread rainfall has ended across western
Washington, with lingering shower activity expected to taper
throughout the day. This, along with snow levels falling back
down to 3500-4000 ft, has largely helped to mitigate any additional
flooding concerns. A few rivers flowing off the Cascades will
continue to rise today as the pulse of runoff from this last system
drains from the river basins, however no additional flooding will
occur.

Additional systems will move into the area early next week,
however rainfall amounts generally look to remain light, so no
additional flooding is expected at this time.

JBB/14

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Grays
     Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
     Harbor County Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for Grays
     Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM PST this morning for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PST Saturday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$