707
FXUS66 KSEW 270431
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
831 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will produce another round of precipitation
overnight into Thanksgiving Day. The weather pattern will trend
drier and eventually cooler Friday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Current forecast is on track with an area of low pressure and
associated frontal system spreading rain across the area overnight
into most of Thanksgiving Day. The surface low and front will weaken
considerably by the time they move onshore tomorrow evening.
Nonetheless, it`ll be a soggy day tomorrow with precip decreasing by
Friday morning as the system shifts eastward. Previous discussion
follows with an update to the aviation portion.  27

Latest radar imagery shows shower activity pulsing up from the
south and starting to approach our area. Rain will start for
most of the area starting later this afternoon and evening as a
frontal system spins offshore. High temperatures this afternoon
staying in the low to mid 50s across the region, with overnight
lows in the low to mid 40s.

Widespread steady rain will continue overnight and into
Thursday as this low takes its time offshore. It looks like
Thanksgiving day will have showers on and off throughout the
day, with most of the area seeing precipitation - which could be
locally heavy at times (areas in the Olympics and Cascades).
Along with widespread precipitation, winds will be breezy at
times, especially for areas along the coast and for portions of
the interior. Rain and wind both took to taper overnight
Thursday into Friday, with a drying trend looking to start up
over western Washington.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific looks to dry out
conditions throughout the day on Friday and heading into the
weekend. Some of the ensembles are hinting on a few weak
impulses on Saturday that could spark some light showers across
the area, but it is looking rather weak if it does materializes.
Otherwise, conditions look to be mainly dry for the weekend,
along with overnight temperatures getting cooler. Overnight
temperatures on Saturday look to get down to the upper 30s, even
mid 30s early Sunday morning. Areas near the water likely will
be cooler overnight, and especially if cloud cover clears up,
could anticipate temperatures dropping a bit more.

The upper ridge starts to shift eastward on Monday which
leaves room for a weak frontal system to potentially cross over
western Washington for another round of light rain. Ensembles
are still trying to key in on this feature, but for now will
leave mention of showers each day through Wednesday.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft will back to southwesterly overnight as an upper
trough and frontal system offshore approach the area. A mixed bag of
ceilings this evening is expected to solidify into mostly MVFR
overnight as precipitation increases. MVFR in light rain will
persist throughout Thanksgiving Day.

KSEA...Ceilings will lower overnight and become MVFR through most of
Thursday in light rain at times. Surface winds N/NE 5 to 8 knots
will shift to a more easterly direction Thursday AM. 27

&&

.MARINE...
A bit of lull in the winds during the day today in between
systems, but it`s worth noting that seas over the coastal waters
remain quite choppy with a dominant period around 7-9 second.
Conditions continue to hold just short of advisory criteria,
however. Another strong front will bring another round of
advisory strength winds Thursday, along with seas building
significantly into the 15-17 ft range (particularly the outer
and southern coastal waters). At this point gales should remain
over the offshore waters and the current SCA covers the coastal
zones well, but occasional gusts to 35 kt can`t be ruled out
beyond about 35 NM from shore. Late in the week, high pressure
begins to rebuild over the coastal waters into the weekend. Will
need to monitor the strength of any northeast flow developing,
but at this point strong Fraser outflow isn`t particularly
likely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another frontal system will bring a round of rain to the region.
Snow levels will remain above 5000 feet through Thursday
evening, leaving the majority of the precipitation falling as
rain. However, with expected rainfall amounts holding steady and
topping out mostly in the 2 to 2.5 inch range with this system,
confidence is increasing that we will not see any river flooding
impacts. As a result, the flood potential outlook has been
expired for Mason County.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$