655
FXUS66 KSEW 191700
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move inland today, with some patchy areas of
dense fog this morning across the region. Some breezy east gap
winds are expected in the Cascades as well today. The
progressive pattern continues with a weak front bringing some
showers tonight into early Thursday. A stronger system will
bring precipitation this weekend into next week. This next set
of systems looks to add substantial rainfall and accumulating
snow in the mountains. Cooler temperatures are expected going
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of low stratus and fog are present across much of the
lowland interior this morning, but fog has lifted to low stratus
already this morning. Low clouds and fog are expected to scatter
out quickly this morning as east winds increase.

The high pressure/ridge will shift inland today, with a frontal
system approaching the coast later tonight. The increased
pressure gradient is expected to produce breezy east winds, with
gusts of 25-35 mph at times today. An isolated pocket of 35 to
45 mph winds is expected in the North Bend area today (and the
wind advisory for the area will continue). The coast and east
Strait of Juan de Fuca areas may also see some gusts of 20 to 30
mph at times later today.

The previous mentioned front will split as it moves ashore, and will
bring showers along the coast late tonight/Thursday morning.
The coast is favored to see the most amount of QPF with this
system (which is a light 0.25" or so of rain), while remaining
areas see a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. The
precipitation drops to less than 30% chance the remainder of
Thursday. Some areas of patchy fog will be possible again
Thursday morning, potentially lingering for a good part of the
day. Winds are expected to remain light on Thursday. Overnight
temperatures will improve with increased cloud coverage (low 40s
in the lowlands). Highs remain in the low 50s.

In addition to showers: along the coast, large long-period waves
are expected to arrive Thursday afternoon. The latest
NWPS/ensemble model guidance has waves approaching 14 to 16 ft
Thursday afternoon with periods around 14 to 16 seconds. A
future high surf advisory may be needed for the threat of beach
erosion and significant run-up.

For Friday: This is the beginning of what is expected to be a
series of progressive systems moving through the region into the
weekend and next week. A front arrives Friday afternoon with
increasing chances of precipitation. Snow levels will remain
elevated around 6,000 ft. during the day, keeping initial
significant snowfall to the peaks of the highest north Cascades
peaks. The hydrologic concerns remain low at this time (see
hydrology discussion below).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As mentioned, the progressive pattern is expected to continue
through the weekend into next week. The heaviest of the QPF has
shifted into Sunday-Monday night, but remains in the Cascades
and in the Olympics/coast. Snow levels are expected to drop
down to around 2,000 ft going into Tuesday. Accumulating snow
will be possible at some of the more popular passes (Stevens,
and Snoqualmie). Please continue to monitor travel conditions
going into next week (especially if traveling for the
Thanksgiving holiday).

Ensembles are split going into the middle of next week on if the
pattern will become warmer or cooler (although CPC has western
WA in a slight chance of below average temperatures next 8-14
days). The deterministic forecast favors cooler temperatures
going into next week, with a few more lows in the 30s by midweek
next week. Highs Tuesday only reach the upper 40s for most urban
areas. Precipitation chances remain around 20% going into the
middle of the week, but depending on how cool the air will get,
any showers that do form during the cold hours will have the
chance to mix a few snowflakes down to the surface.

HPR

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper ridge over the region today with weak
offshore flow developing this afternoon. Low level offshore flow
will help to gradually erode the low clouds late morning onward
for a return to VFR for most areas by early afternoon.
Increasing mid/high clouds late tonight/early Thursday ahead of
the next frontal system. Light rain moving inland overnight with
MVFR conditions.

KSEA...Low clouds slowly eroding this morning with ceilings
improving this afternoon due to drier east winds. East/northeast
winds 5-7 kt increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. MVFR cigs by
12z Thu with light rain. 33

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will shift inland today, with a weak front
expected to split moving across the waters/land
tonight/Thursday. Some patchy dense fog is possible in the Puget
Sound this morning. Otherwise. breezy east winds will turn more
south/southeast later today ahead of the next front. Small craft
advisories continue for the coastal waters, and the west/east
Strait of Juan de Fuca areas for wind gusts up to 25 mph (up to
30 mph in the east strait). This progressive weather pattern is
expected to continue through the weekend into next week, as
models try to solve different paths for several systems expected
to pass through our region.

Seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the outer coastal waters
today (6 to 8 ft in the inner coastal waters). An increasing
westward component will bring seas of 15 to 18 ft close to the
shore, before dropping to 8 to 12 ft into early next week,
decreasing to 8 to 10 ft.

HPR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding is expected through the week ahead. Stronger weather
systems moving into the region early next week could bring periods
of heavier rain (or mountain snow) and will be the next time frame
to watch with respect to hydrologic concerns.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Foothills and
     Valleys of Central King County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
     Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Thursday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$