525
FXUS63 KSGF 192100
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
  develop tonight into early Thursday morning (50-80% chance).
  Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing small hail, with
  a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for quarter-sized hail west of
  Highway 65.

- Widespread moderate rain through Friday is expected to produce
  amounts of 1-2 inches, with some areas seeing 2-4 inches of
  rain. Flash flooding may occur with embedded areas of intense
  rainfall rates, but widespread flooding is not anticipated.

- 50-65% chances for rain return sometime early next week. Exact
  timing and amounts will likely fluctuate due to inherent
  uncertainty with this type of system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a moisture-laden mid-level
atmosphere across much of the CONUS as a deep upper-level low
extends down to the Baja Peninsula in Mexico. The result is a
90-110 kt southwesterly jet stream transporting moisture from
the west Pacific into the majority of the CONUS. Broad ridging
over the eastern half of the CONUS is also allowing for low-
level Gulf moisture to build northward into the Ozarks. A
stationary front marks the boundary between the warm and moist
air mass and is currently extending from central OK eastward to
central NC. This front is expected to advance northward as a
warm front, allowing highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s
across southern MO, and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
toward central MO.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday morning:

As the warm front lifts north through the area, elevated
instability will increase due to warm air and moisture advection
associated with a ~20 kt low-level jet. As this occurs, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area as
early as 10-11 PM (but more likely near 1 AM). These are then
expected to increase in coverage as the night goes on as a
subtle mid-level shortwave moves underneath an extension of the
upper-level jet in east KS. This should introduce more synoptic
ascent to produce more numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the area late tonight through Thursday morning (50-75%
chance). This may even present itself as a line of thunderstorms
moving southeast as some 12Z HREF CAMs are coming into
agreement on.


Potential for small hail up to quarter-sized with any storm:

12Z HREF sounding profiles tonight depict 1000-1500 J/kg of
elevated instability with the activity tonight. The "fattest"
portion of the CAPE has a good chunk of it within the hail-
growth zone. This is due to 5.5-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
(with the RAP suggesting up to 7 C/km) Therefore, any
thunderstorm tonight in the area will be capable of producing
small hail. Some storms may produce up to quarter-sized hail.
The best chance for this, albeit a small 5% chance, is west of
Highway 65 where SREF and HREF profiles show the best chance for
>30-40 kt effective bulk shear, which would allow for more
organized storms with a greater hail threat. This hail threat
wanes after mid-morning Thursday as instability and shear wane.


Widespread rain expected Thursday through Friday:

While any hail and severe threat will diminish through the day
Thursday, more widespread light to moderate rain becomes likely
(50-95% chance) as warm air and positive vorticity advection
remains persistent ahead of the slow arrival of a more potent
upper-level shortwave and attendant mid-level low. The greatest
chance for persistent rainfall is along the southern MO border
(85-95% chance), with decreasing chances as you go north (50-60%
chance along and north of Highway 54). Embedded thunderstorms
will still be possible with this daytime activity as MUCAPE
hovers around 100-250 J/kg, though the HREF mean has <100 J/kg
by the evening. Therefore, mainly light to moderate stratiform-
like rain is expected for this period.

Another round of widespread moderate to heavy rain is then
forecast to push through Friday night as the brunt of the mid-
level low and upper-level shortwave push through the region
(90-100% chance). Some thunderstorms are also possible with
this activity, though instability is once again expected to be
limited compared to tonight.

Coverage then becomes more isolated after noon Friday as the
warm front lifts north of the area. However, global models and
some CAMs, including the GFS, RRFS and NAM, suggest lingering
instability of 100-200 J/kg as the main front pushes through,
which could develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Friday afternoon (30-50% chance).


Widespread amounts of 1-2 inches with localized 2-4 inches:

When it`s all said an done, rainfall totals are expected to be
between 1-2 inches across the area, with the better chance for 2
inches along the southern MO border. Given the presence of
thunderstorms throughout the period, some areas could see
locally higher amounts. HREF and REFS LPMM amounts suggest
localized areas seeing up to 2-4 inches.

Much of this rain is expected to fall tonight into early
Thursday morning with the greater instability present.
Additionally, PWATs are expected to reach 1.2-1.6 during this
period, which is above the 99.5th percentile for this time of
year. More light to moderate rain is then expected Friday
afternoon before another round of moderate to heavy rain quickly
pushes through Friday night.

Given mostly dry antecedent conditions and the longevity of the
rainfall event, widespread flooding is not anticipated. The REFS
gives a meager 10% chance for localized areas to exceed our
6-hr flash flood guidance (which is around 2.5-4 inches). That
being said, a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall paired
a possibility for the 2-4 inches of locally heavier amounts to
fall within 6 hours could lead to a few instances of flash
flooding, but confidence in which locations is too low to issue
any sort of Flood Watch at this time.


During this period, highs will be in the middle to upper 60s
with lows in the middle to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Dry weather and near average temperatures this weekend:

Following the exit of the late week system, heights aloft will
modestly rise ahead of another incoming system. Additionally,
weak surface high pressure is progged to quickly translate
through the region. As a result, dry and more seasonable weather
is expected Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and lows in the 40s.


50-65% rain chances return early next week--uncertainty remains:

Global ensembles depict another closed low pushing through the
area sometime early next week. However, clusters--and even run-
to-run--consistency is somewhat low. This is due to the inherent
nature of models to have trouble modeling closed low systems.
Therefore, expect the exact timing, chances, and amounts of rain
to fluctuate with subsequent forecasts moving forward. For now,
though, the best chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday
night (50-65% chance). It could be as early as Sunday afternoon,
or ending as late as Tuesday afternoon.

The final position of the closed low will determine chances for
thunderstorms and potential rainfall amounts. For the current
runs, the heaviest amounts are expected to stay south of the
area with mainly stratiformy showers expected for our area.

During this period, highs are expected to be seasonable in the
middle to upper 50s with lows in the middle 40s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Following a period of light and variable winds and SCT to BKN
high clouds between 18-04Z, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase. Between 04-10Z, showers and
thunderstorms will likely be isolated to scattered, leading to a
PROB30/TEMPO group during this timeframe. However, also during
this timeframe, any thunderstorm will have the potential to
produce small hail and a 5% chance of hail up to quarter-size.
After 10Z, coverage is expected to increase with widespread rain
and embedded thunderstorms through the rest of the period,
especially at BBG (75-95% chance). These storms will mainly pose
a visibility threat from heavy rain.

Otherwise, as coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase,
winds will become predominantly out of the southeast at 5-10
kts, and cigs will gradually drop to IFR by 10Z with low chances
(30%) for LIFR after 10Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price