135
FXUS63 KSGF 102045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills in the teens to mid-20s tonight into Tuesday
  morning due to wind gusts up to 25-35 mph. There is a 30-50%
  chance of a couple 40 mph gusts west of Highway 65.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon, mainly
  within the grasslands along the I-49 corridor and in the
  forests of the eastern Ozarks.

- A warm-up begins Tuesday with 60s and 70s expected for
  Wednesday into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average).

- Though the exact details are uncertain, the overall weather
  pattern favors rain chances returning this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a very deep mid- and upper-
level low across the eastern CONUS which is placing our region
under a 140-150 kt meridional jet streak straight out of the
north. As a result of these strong dynamics, surface analysis
shows the surface cold front having pushed all the way through
the Gulf and over the Yucatan Peninsula in Central America.
That`s a strong cold front! This has brought in well below
normal temperatures to the area this morning and today as
temperatures are still hovering in the middle 30s. Highs today
are not expected to get much warmer, topping out in the middle
30s to lower 40s, mostly feeling like the lower to middle 30s
thanks to 8-12 mph northwesterly winds.


Wind chills in the teens to mid-20s tonight into Tuesday morning:

With the cold air mass in place, lows tonight will be chilly
again with temperatures in the upper teens to the upper 20s. As
a surface high pressure is quick to depart eastward early
tomorrow morning, the backside pressure gradient will tighten,
shifting winds out of the southwest and increasing through the
morning. This will allow wind chills to be in the teens to lower
20s Tuesday morning. Make sure to bundle up for the commute to
school and work!


Temperatures quick to warm up during the day Tuesday:

The chilly morning will not last long, though. The increased
southwesterly winds will very quickly advect in warmer air.
Highs Tuesday are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.
This will be the start of a warming trend as upper-level heights
rise.


25-35 mph wind gusts Tuesday - A 30-50% chance of a few 40 mph:

As previously mentioned, winds will pick up quite a bit Tuesday
thanks to the tightening surface pressure gradient. Current
NBM/HREF ensemble forecasts depict wind gusts up to 25-35 mph
being expected, with the higher end of that range occurring west
of Highway 65. However, with a roaring 40-50 kt low-level jet
overhead and strong warm-air advection commencing, a couple >40
mph gusts could mixdown to the surface, especially west of
Highway 65 or along the Ozark Plateau. NBM puts this as a 30-50%
chance. The best time for this occurring would be between 9 AM
and 1 PM.


Areas of elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon:

I probably got shocked at least 3 times today from static
electricity which means it sure is dry out there. The strong
winds paired with moisture lagging behind the warm-air advection
will create a warm, dry, and windy environment Tuesday from
mid- day to the afternoon. Afternoon relative humidity values
are forecast to be between 30-40%. Surprisingly, the dry-biased
CAMs are not too keen on being much drier, with only 20-40% of
REFS members suggesting <30% RHs along I-49. That being said,
with models usually trending a bit moist from a departing
surface high, along with strong boundary-alayer winds, would not
be surprised to see some areas drop to 25-30%. Additionally,
with the hard freeze this morning and Tuesday morning, fuels
will likely be a bit drier out there. This will be especially
true for the grasses along and west of I-49 and the forest
litter out in the eastern Ozarks. As a result, these areas have
an elevated risk for fire weather. Some pockets of significant
fire weather risk are possible if relative humidity values do
drop below 30%.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Warm-up continues into the weekend with dry weather expected:

Heights aloft will continue to rise through the week, resulting
in continued southerly flow and warming temperatures. NBM
spreads are quite low, showing good certainty in these
temperatures through Friday. Tuesday night starts off near
normal in the mid to upper 30s. Wednesday heats up to above
normal in the middle to upper 60s. Thursday looks to be a bit
warmer with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s and lows now
balmy in the middle 50s.

Temperatures really start to increase above normal Friday and
Saturday as ensembles show a very amplified wave traversing the
western CONUS, putting a very pronounced ridge overhead. Highs
during this period are forecast to be in the middle 70s with
lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. These are 10 to 20 degrees
above normal and just a few degrees shy of record highs for the
timeframe, which around around 78 F.


Overall weather pattern favors rain chances this weekend:

Ensembles show the amplified wave making it to the Central
Plains sometime this weekend into early next week. However,
there`s still quite a lot of uncertainty. Deterministic models
seem to jump from one cluster scenario to another with each
subsequent runs. Even the ensembles themselves are flip-flopping
with each run. For example, 12Z run yesterday had much of our
area wet Saturday, while the 00Z run had 70% of models dry.

These uncertainties are a result of two main scenarios that
could pan out:

Scenario 1: The entering wave keeps it trough-like structure
in-tact. This scenario would allow the wave to be attached to
the stronger background flow and progress quickly through the
area. This scenario would bring rain Saturday into Sunday.

Scenario 2: The entering wave detaches from the background flow
and becomes a closed low. This scenario would hold more
uncertainty since closed lows are notoriously hard to pin down
the exact track and speed of. In general, though, this would
lead to a slower progression, bringing rain later towards Sunday
and/or Monday.

The differences in these scenarios are presenting themselves as
a 30-50% chance of rain each day from Saturday through Monday,
though when the time comes, rain will only be likely for one,
maybe 2, of those days.

Both scenarios do have the potential for thunderstorms (and a
low potential for severe weather) if enough moisture can be
advected in ahead of the wave. GEFS-inspired AI guidance brings
a greater chance for potential severe than ECMWF-inspired AI
guidance. Additionally, if the scenario of a closed low pans
out, there are sub-scenarios of its exact track. If the low
traversed south, this would stunt any moisture advection and
mainly bring stratiformy stuff to our area.

After the system moves through, temperatures are likely to drop,
but given timing differences, there` still a lot of spread to
determine when this drop will occur and by what magnitude. For
now, high temperatures are forecast to drop to the 50s by
Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions--with respect to cigs and visibilities--are
expected through the entire period. Winds will be the main
aviation concern through the period. Northwesterly winds at
8-12 kts will diminish and become variable with a dry fropa
between 22-04Z. Afterwards, winds will begin to pick up with
LLWS forecasted to reach 40-55 kts between 10-16Z, likely
peaking around 12-14Z. After 14Z, surface winds will increase
out of the southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts at
times. A stray >40 kt gust cannot be ruled out at some point
between 14-18Z, especially at JLN (30-50% chance for that 4 hour
period).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price