279
FXUS63 KSGF 111129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
529 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- S-SW wind gusts of 35-45 mph today, with the strongest winds
  along and west of Highway 65. There is a 30% chance of gusts
  exceeding 45 mph.

- Widespread elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon,
  especially in areas with very dry fuels. Strong winds and
  humidity values of 30-35%.

- A warm-up begins today with 60s and 70s expected for
  Wednesday into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average).

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Strong winds and dry conditions are the main story today.

Strong high pressure over the SE CONUS and a trough moving
across the northern CONUS are resulting in a tightening pressure
gradient across the area. This along would result in breezy
conditions, but as the trough moves into the Great Lakes this
morning, pressure falls of 6-7 mb/6 hours will result in an
isallobaric component that is in light with the pressure
gradient. Models have trended stronger with both the gradient
and the pressure change, so winds were increased with this
forecast update.

S-SW winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph are in the
forecast. Mixing just a couple hundred feet higher in the strong
LLJ this morning would be enough to gust above the 45 mph Wind
Advisory criteria, so that will have to be monitored, but at
this time mixing is expected to remain in check due in part to
cloud cover. NBM V5 shows around a 30% probability for gusts >45
mph. Regardless of exact speeds, the area impacted by the
strongest wind will be along and west of Hwy 65.

Accompanying gusty winds today will be high temperatures in the
upper 50s to mid 60s with minimum RH values of 30-35%. NBM
probabilities suggest at least a 95% chance of RH values not
dipping below 30%, lending confidence to not seeing
significantly worse fire conditions that currently predicted.
Given seasonal changes in fire fuels (leaf fall, grasses going
dormant, etc), weather conditions will lead to widespread
concerns for elevated fire behavior.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday through Saturday look dry for the most part with NW
flow transitioning to an upper ridge over the area with time.
This will result in temperatures increasing from highs in the
60s Wednesday to the mid and possibly upper 70s on Friday and
Saturday. Forecast high temperatures Friday and Saturday are
within a few degrees of record highs. Friday and Saturday also
look breezy with gusts of generally 20-30 mph.

After Saturday, model systems have been showing potential for a
system to move through the region, but vary widely from model to
model and run to run. Cluster analysis shows quite different
solutions in each of the 4 clusters, each with similar
membership, so confidence is very low (lower than normal) in
this portion of the forecast. Will want to keep an eye on this
time period as solutions could reasonably range from dry weather
to severe weather depending on strength and location of any
potential system (if one develops at all).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

LLWS turning to strong surface winds this morning is the
primary hazard for aviation in this TAF period. Expect winds to
diminish this evening, with potential for LLWS mainly at KBBG
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus