438
FXUS63 KSGF 092310
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies are
  expected through this evening with temperatures around
  seasonable normals.

- Isolated to scattered showers or a storm will be possible
  mainly along and north of I-44 (10-20%) with the better
  chances north of Highway 54 (20-40%).

- Above average temperatures in the 80s are then likely (>75%
  chance) to return to the region late this week into the
  weekend. Mostly dry weather is also expected, with a few
  exceptions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Scattered to broken middle level clouds were moving through the northwesterly
flow aloft over the Ozarks. Thanks to weak isentropic lift on
the 300K surface and a subtle shortwave in the 700-750mb flow, a
few showers impacted some locations from Osceola to
Springfield. The showers had to work through ample dry air with
only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch or rain occurring.

The middle level energy will weaken this afternoon along with
losing the upglide on the 300K surface, though middle level
clouds will continue into this evening. Surface winds will
remain light and southerly overnight. Temperatures will be
warmer (Middle 50s) in the western half of the Ozarks, west of
Highway 65 and in the middle 40s east of Highway 65.

Another middle level shortwave is expected to move through the
upper level northwesterly flow Friday morning, similar to what
we saw today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The upper level ridge over the Plains will continue building as
an impressive upper low begins to push onto the Pacific
Northwest. Despite the building ridge, a weakening low level
jet, isentropic uplift and condensation pressure deficits less
than 8 mb will lead to the potential for showers and isolated
storms (10-20%) mainly along and north of I-44 through the day
and into the evening. The best chances (20-40%) for
showers/thunderstorms will be along/north of Highway 54 closer
to where the LLJ is slightly stronger and upglide is better.

With the ridge building over our area, temperatures will begin
to warm back up to above seasonable averages, with highs
potentially reaching the low 80s (along/west of I-49) Friday.
Through the weekend the warming trend will continue, with highs
reaching the mid 80s by Sunday (5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year).

Towards the beginning of next week, models have continued show
a weak upper level trough approaching the region from the west.
This may bring another limited chance for rain chances (15-25%)
of showers/thunderstorms for portions of southeastern Kansas and
far west central Missouri. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the progression of this system, timing, frontal
positioning, etc., so continue to monitor models as we get
closer to this timeframe.

By the middle of next week the ridge begins to flatten with an
upper low becoming cutoff off the coast of California. This will
allow for an atmospheric river of moisture to make its way into
the plains from the Pacific. While currently there are no
expectations for rain noted in the models, any subtle wave
moving through the pattern may allow for rain development.

Looking at ensemble models however, probabilities of rainfall
greater than 0.10 inches of rain through Oct 20th is less than
10% with the exception of tomorrow, Oct. 10th, which is only
around 15-20%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours and into
Friday. Some mid to high level clouds move through the area on
Friday afternoon and evening with a system. Low chances (10-20%)
for an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Friday afternoon and
evening, though confidence is not high enough to depict in the
TAFs at this time. Light southeast to south winds through the
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Perez