176
FXUS63 KSGF 181713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal to record high temperatures will be possible
  on Tuesday.

- Areas of fog will be possible tonight...especially over the
  eastern 2/3 of the forecast area.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 413 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Synoptic Overview:
The driving force for today`s weather is an upper-level closed
low/embedded shortwave that will quickly push from western
Nebraska through the Great Lakes region by this evening. As the
low weakens and becomes an open wave, it will be absorbed by a
longwave trough located near New Brunswick. The surface low
associated with this shortwave has begun occluding over
northwest Missouri as the cold front crosses Kansas and catches
the warm front pushing north across central Missouri. The low
itself will weaken and become more diffuse as it travels from
Kansas City area towards southern Illinois through the day
today, dragging the trailing cold front with it. The other
synoptic feature of note is a longwave trough digging into the
southern California coast.

Today`s Forecast:
As morning precipitation moves east, cloud cover will slowly
decrease through the day, bringing mostly sunny conditions by
sunset. High temperatures will range from upper 70s in south-
central Missouri/eastern Ozarks where the cold front will pass
after peak daytime heating, to near 70 degrees in areas behind
the cold front. Winds will calm through the day, changing from
southerly to westerly/northwesterly behind the front. Overnight
lows tonight in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Synoptic Evolution:
After the cold front passes through our area on Tuesday, it will
stall to our south on Wednesday. The aforementioned trough
pushing into the southern California coast will become a cut off
low as it pushes into the lower Colorado River Basin, where it
will pivot and begin lifting into the central Plains. Southerly
flow will bring additional moisture from the Gulf as our
stationary front turns to a warm front that will begin pushing
back north through southern Missouri. As the wave pivots,
numerous vort maxes will surge ahead and provide energy to fuel
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.

Models have continued to trend a little slower with the wave
coming in off the coast, pushing the onset of precip chances
later into Wednesday night. Ensemble mean PW values between
1.2-1.4" indicates that rainfall rates will be quite efficient,
and deep-layer flow parallel to the front indicate that training
will be a concern with these showers and thunderstorms. The
combination of training and efficient warm rain processes has us
watching for heavy rainfall and flooding potential from
Wednesday night through the end of the rainfall Friday night.
That being said, rainfall totals continue to decrease, with the
most likely totals falling between 1-2", with highest amounts
furthest south. QPF cluster analysis still shows differences
in the spatial extent, width, and magnitude of the heavy
rainfall corridor, so we will continue to monitor and update the
forecast accordingly as higher-res models come into range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For the 18z TAFS, the warm front has pushed through the area and
the trailing cold front was just about to push through JLN as of
17z. The lower clouds were diminishing and we should be in VFR
until later tonight. There is a good signal for fog developing
at BBG/SGF late tonight. For now have lowered visibility to 1
mile at both sites, but may need to be lowere by the 00z or 06z
forecasts if the trend continues. The fog should clear up by
around 15z with VFR conditions for the remainder of the morning.
Some gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front to northwest
behind the front will be possible this afternoon up to 25 kts,
but should diminish to light and variable after 00z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the
55-59 degree range. Average low temps for middle November are in
the 34-36 degree range.


Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures:             Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930                             75
KJLN: 76/1999                             75
KVIH: 74/1981                             72
KUNO: 74/2017                             77



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 20: Forecast:
KUNO: 52/2007 51

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden