206
FXUS63 KSGF 040914
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions along the I-49 corridor and
  across south-central Missouri this afternoon due to 25-35 mph
  southerly winds and low humidity.

- Temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal persisting through
  Saturday.

- Low end precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Current conditions:

In the mid-levels aloft, the pattern is nearly
zonal or weakly ridged north of a high pressure center sitting along
the Gulf coast. At the surface, this high sits to our south-
southeast. It is resulting in clear skies currently, though warm air
advection with the southerly flow is counteracting radiational
cooling and keeping overnight temps nice and mild around 50 - at
least, in southwest MO, where winds are observed up to 10 mph. Out
east, where flow is calm, temperatures have been able to dip down
into the upper 30s.

Elevated fire danger, gusty winds, and above-average temperatures
today:

A low-level shortwave will dip into the Plains today and begin
impinging on the wind field over the Ozarks currently dominated by
the nearby high pressure. The pressure gradient will increase,
especially along and west of I-49. Winds up to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph will affect this area from mid morning to early afternoon.
East across the rest of the area, it will still be breezy, but a
little less intense with winds 15-20 mph. With the strong warm air
advection and ample sunshine, highs will warm into the low 70s
today, a whopping 10-15 degrees above normal. With the warm
temperatures and substantial winds drying things out very
efficiently, we will be contenting with some elevated fire danger
coincident with the highest winds today. Lows tonight will be very
mild after all that warm air advection with some help from high-
level cloud cover building in due to elevated moisture moving in
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Above-average temperatures continue; low chance for precipitation
Thursday night:

Persistent warm air advection and high pressure will result in
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal through Saturday. NBM
interquartile spreads remain less than 5 degrees, indicating
confidence in the above-average warmth. The zonal/weakly ridged
pattern aloft looks to break down into a weak trough by late week,
dragging a front down that clips our region sometime Thursday
night/Friday morning. The front will have good support, and is
expected to help fire off some precipitation for central and south
central Missouri. As ensembles get a better idea of this trough,
PoPs have increased for our northeastern counties up to 30%. The
chance for thunder remains less than 10% presently, but could go up
depending on the quality of the moisture return.

Cooler to start next week, warmer to end it:

The weak nature of the front won`t interrupt our southerly flow/warm
air advection...until its parent low pressure system deepens and
sends a deeper trough swinging through the region. Ensembles differ
on timing/magnitude, and the NBM is expressing uncertainty in high
temperatures, but its whole spread sits below normal beginning
Sunday. It does not appear that moisture will be sufficient to
result in precipitation as the trough moves through and deepens to
the east (thanks to the baby boundary that will come through ahead
of it on Thursday), but it will most likely put us in a northwest
flow regime for a few days and bring us more typical fall
temperatures. This won`t last long; as high pressure moves in behind
the departing trough, southerly winds will be reinstated, warming us
up above normal once again. This likely scenario is reflected in the
CPC 8-14 day outlook, depicting high probabilities for above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. The surface pressure
gradient will tighten this period, resulting in gusty south-
southwesterly surface winds, sustained up to 20kts with gusts
up to 30kts. Winds increase and turn more westerly with
altitude. With westerly winds around 50kts at FL180, low level
wind shear will be an issue. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions
with a few passing high clouds and no precipitation expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson