589
FXUS63 KSGF 061142
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today.

- 20-60% chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across
  the area today through Tuesday. Not all locations will see
  rain, and any amounts will be sparse and generally <0.75".

- Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front mid-week with more
  normal temperatures. 60-80% chance for persistent above normal
  temperatures in the 80s to return late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows two air masses diagonally
split in half across the CONUS. Southeast of a southern Arizona
to Lake Huron line is dry air and high pressure. Northwest of
this line is cooler temperatures and above normal moisture
within a longwave trough. At the dividing line, a cold front is
forcing a very narrow line of showers and thunderstorms from
central KS into the upper peninsula of MI. For the most part,
the front has been stalled due to unidirectional flow through
the atmosphere. However, positive vorticity advection within the
base of the positively-tilted trough should slowly shift the
wave eastward today and tomorrow, bringing the cold front south
through the region.


Above normal temperatures continue today:

We have one more day of above normal temperatures before the
cold front moves through tonight. As with the past few days,
highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s with lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


20-60% chances of showers today and Tuesday:

Two systems will approach southwest Missouri today and Tuesday.
While the upper-level jet stream and surface cold front sag
into the area from the northwest, a subtle mid-level
disturbance will lift into the region from the south, advecting
better moisture with it. This will put the I-44 corridor as the
center of the sandwich. Except, the center of the sandwich is
the lowest rain chances while the bread is the higher rain
chances. What this results in is 15-30% chance for isolated
showers across the area, with locally higher chances (30-60%)
northwest of our area along the cold front, and in our extreme
southeast area (Shannon and Oregon counties) where mid- and
upper-level forcing is strongest. A thunderstorm or two is also
possible as the better moisture introduces weak instability.

The axis of greatest coverage and heaviest rain has shifted
east of the area as evident by the HREF, REFS, and SREF QPF
swaths. So, expect spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in
most areas today. The only area that may see more persistent
light rain and dreary conditions would be portions of Shannon
and Oregon counties. Many locations will stay dry, but anywhere
that sees rain should have have amounts less than 0.50-0.75".

Chances for rain are lower Tuesday (15-30% for only portions of
the area). This is due to the front dropping south during the
overnight hours (little to no instability), then escaping the
better synoptic-scale ascent during the day Tuesday. Still, some
residual moisture and positive vorticity advection may bring
some light showers and sprinkles to the area as the last of the
front moves through.

With the front over the area Tuesday, highs will range from the
lower 70s across west-central MO, to the lower 80s in south-
central MO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Near normal temperatures behind the front mid-week:

Near normal temperatures are expected for a brief period of time
after the cold front passage. Highs in the middle 70s are
expected Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas west of Highway 65
may see highs Thursday near 80 F as height rises and
southeasterly surface winds kick back in. Lows Tuesday night to
Thursday night will range in the middle 40s to middle 50s--a
brief glimpse of fall-like nighttime temperatures.


Persistent above normal temperatures likely to return late week:

Global ensemble members have come into much better agreement
with the latest runs as opposed to the forecast 24 hours ago.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, however you slice the cake), the
trend has been with above normal temperatures quickly returning
and being rather persistent. This is due to pretty good
agreement in a mid- and upper-level ridge axis building back across
the central Plains, allowing compressional warming and south-
southeasterly surface winds to bring warm air northward again.
There is medium-high confidence in seeing highs in the lower to
middle 80s again through the weekend (60-80% chance given that
the NBM 25th percentile is around 80 F).

Interestingly, the way models portray the progression of the
upper-level pattern looks to evolve the same way it did this
past weekend with the ridge tilting positively as a longwave
trough traverses the Rocky Mountains. This may eventually lead
to another cold front next week, but this is out of the forecast
range. It`s worth noting that the CPC continues to have us in a
60-80% chance for above normal temperatures through mid-
October.

As for rain chances, with ridging overhead, weather is expected
to be dry again for the most part Wednesday into the weekend.
However, as the ridge sets up and a northwesterly jet develops
over the region, some warm air advection/isentropic upglide
showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly Thursday
night into Friday morning west of Highway 65. NBM chances are
currently low (15-20%), but global deterministic models have
been persistent on this signal, so would not be surprised to see
this chance go up as we draw nearer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Through the duration of the period, two systems will enter the
area from the northwest and southeast, respectively,
sandwiching the TAF sites in the middle of each system. As a
result, VFR conditions are likely (>75% chance) through at least
03Z with increasing low cloud cover and 3-8 kt southeasterly
winds.

The main uncertainty is the chance for rain at each TAF site.
There will most likely be small rain showers in the area after
18Z, but the coverage is in large question. At the moment, BBG
has the best chance of seeing a shower impact the site between
18-00Z (25-35% chance). Have included a PROB30 there. Showers
are still possible at SGF and JLN, but a <15% chance precludes
any mention in the TAF. Any shower may bring visibilities and
cigs down to MVFR.

Toward the end of the period, low cigs are forecast to slowly
enter all sites from the southeast. Confidence is high (60-80%)
for IFR conditions or worse at all TAF sites due to below 1 kft
cigs. Some stratus build-down may occur, especially at BBG,
which could create some fog and lowered visibilities.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price