594
FXUS63 KSGF 031719
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1119 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Watching for a potential narrow band of light rain/snow this
  afternoon and evening across central Missouri. Current
  probability for precipitation is around 15-30% along and north
  of Hwy 54.

- Low (<10%) confidence in a brief timeframe for freezing
  drizzle Wednesday evening into the night as a cold front drops
  south.

- Periods of warm-ups and cool-downs this week, but for the most
  part temperatures remain near or below normal (46-52 F is
  normal range for early December).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Current infrared satellite and surface observations depict an
area of low stratus and fog overspreading the eastern Ozarks
(West Plains is down to <1 mile visibility at times). This comes
as southerly surface winds modestly advect in moisture,
responding to rising heights aloft as evidenced by modest
ridging in mid-level water vapor imagery. With temperatures
observed in the middle 20s, this fog is likely supercooled and
freezing to untreated and elevated surfaces.


Freezing Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM for eastern Ozarks:

The Advisory is currently in effect for Taney, Ozark, Douglas,
Howell, Oregon, and Shannon counties. However, satellite imagery
shows the low stratus creeping into Wright, Dallas, and Dent
Counties as well. Due to a lack of surface observations in those
areas, it is uncertain whether the stratus is reaching the
ground as fog. Therefore, have extended the Advisory to those
counties out of an abundance of caution. The main concern is
untreated and elevated surfaces becoming slick from the freezing
fog. Any fog should lift by 9-11 AM.


Watching for a potential narrow band of light rain/snow today:

Attention then turns to a cold front that is currently analyzed
over the northern Plains states, quickly dropping south. As the
day progresses and high temperatures warm into the 40s, the
temperature gradient along the front will become sharper. Due to
the thermal wind relation, this will generate a strong 120-140
kt jet streak over the Midwest, downstream of a positively
tilted trough axis over the Rockies. Right entrance region jet
dynamics overtop the southward progressing cold front should
provide enough forcing for residual moisture to precipitate in
a band along the front. HREF members vary in which
frontogenesis plane initiates the precipitation, which has
implications on the timing, location, and precipitation type of
the band, therefore chances are currently low at 15-30%, though
there is medium-high (50-75%) forecaster confidence in a band
developing across central Missouri at some point this
afternoon/evening.

Timing and Accumulation Scenarios:

If the 700 mb frontogenesis plane is activated (favored by
RAP/HRRR), the band looks to develop within the northern
portions of Benton/Morgan counties this afternoon. With daytime
temperatures above 35 F, this would likely be a rain, maybe a
rain/snow mix if adiabatic cooling can occur. Therefore, slick
spots on roads would be the main hazards/impacts if snow does
fall.

If the 650 mb frontogenesis plane is activated (favored by FV3),
the band looks to develop after sunset with a little more
southward progression along and north of the Highway 54
corridor. In this scenario, the band would likely be snow as the
HREF puts a 50-80% chance of surface temperatures <32 F. A
rain-snow mix would still be possible (30-50% chance).
Therefore, this band has the best chance of snow accumulation
along roads, generally around a trace which would still be
enough for slick spots.

Some models favor both bands developing (favored by
NSSL/ARW/NAM). The same timings and impacts noted above would
still apply.

A caveat to the forecast, is the potential for a brief time
period of greater snowfall rates. The band orientation will be
parallel to 850-650 mb isotherms within those frontogenesis
bands, and there is a weak signal for some conditional
instability above those planes. If tapped into, we could get a
quick burst of snow accumulations from the band. The
NSSL/ARW/NAM models output up to half an inch of snow within
this band, with an MPAS model even showing a narrow corridor of
2-3 inches. This is a very low-end scenario given the forecasted
conditions, but it is a possibility (10-15% chance for greater
than half an inch from the HREF).


Low confidence in a brief freezing drizzle band this evening:

Once the cold front escapes south from the favored right
entrance region of the jet, the rain/snow band should cease.
However, low-level lift will still be present along the surface
front with high resolution models suggesting some residual
near-surface saturation. This could present a brief period of
freezing drizzle as the front droops south tonight. There is low
confidence in this as the three ingredients for drizzle (lift,
saturation, and lack of cloud ice) appear to be disjointed in
different ways among different models. If everything lines up,
though, we could see a brief band which would present a threat
for a glaze of ice on untreated and elevated surfaces making
travel somewhat hazardous.


Cold front passage will bring colder temperatures tonight:

The cold front will then usher in chilly air with lows tonight
dropping to the teens toward central MO, and the lower 20s along
the southern MO border.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

15-20% chances for precipitation return Thursday night:

Models just cannot seem to make up their mind about Thursday
night into Friday`s system. While chances briefly decreased
below 15% recently, they are now back to 15-20%, likely
responding to medium-range guidance from the SREF coming into
range and suggesting a 30-50% chance of >0.01 inches of
precipitation. However, the chance drops below 10% for >0.10
inches of precipitation. Evaluation of medium-range and global
deterministic models reveals that the jet stream will be
situated across and just south of the area, which should squash
much of any appreciable precipitation south of the area. At the
moment, it looks like if any precipitation made it up into our
area, it would be light. Trends will continue to be monitored,
though, including the chance for freezing precipitation if we do
see anything fall from the sky.


Near or below normal temperatures prevail this week:

The general longwave pattern depicted by ensembles through the
week show a trough across the central and eastern CONUS, with
largely northwest flow over our region. The jet is expected to
also hover around our region, which opens the door for
fluctuations in temperature, though the northwest flow from the
poles will keep us mostly in near to below normal.

Following the strong cold front, highs Thursday will be chilly
again in the upper 20s toward central MO, to the middle 30s
along the southern MO border. Temperatures are then expected to
gradually warm-up once again with highs in the lower to upper
40s Friday, and the middle 40s to lower 50s Saturday which is
near normal. NBM temperature spreads then widen a bit beyond
Saturday as ensemble spread increases, but the mean temperature
trend suggests another cold front to move through before a
gradual increase to just near or above normal temperatures into
Tuesday. Highs sits around the middle 30s to lower 40s Sunday,
increasing to the 40s Monday, middle 40s to lower 50s Tuesday.
Lows are expected to hover in the lower 20s to lower 30s during
this whole timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are scattering out early afternoon, though will be
short-lived as additional cloud covers builds in this afternoon
ahead of a frontal passage. Expect IFR to MVFR flight conditions
with the frontal passage into this evening, with ceilings around
900 to 2500 feet. Additionally, there is a low chance (10-20%)
as depicted by the PROB30 groups for light wintry mix overnight.
Confidence is low in coverage and extent of chances. Flight
conditions gradually improve late in the TAF period.

Meanwhile, expect light southerly winds to become more west-
northwest with the frontal passage. Likely a more northeasterly
component at KBBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Perez