Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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716
FXUS66 KSGX 240509
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
909 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming is expected through Thursday, with high
temperatures returning to above normal by the middle of the week.
Weak to moderate Santa Ana winds are expected Tuesday through
Thursday, with the strongest winds expected on Wednesday. A trough
of low pressure will bring cooler weather and a chance of showers
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Satellite at 9 PM was showing patchy low clouds developing along the
immediate coast. Low clouds are expected to become more widespread
overnight, potentially reaching into portions of the western
valleys. Low cloud coverage will become less likely to develop
Tuesday through Thursday when the pressure gradient becomes
offshore. Highs Monday are expected to be a few degrees warmer
than today for inland locations with a degree or two of cooling
along the coast.

From previous discussion issued 2 PM November 23...

A pattern change will see the western US become dominated by a
building ridge of high pressure aloft at least through Thanksgiving,
along with periods of offshore flow as sfc high pressure moves into
the Great Basin. This will bring dry conditions and a warming trend
through midweek. The offshore pressure gradients will bring Santa
Ana winds for Tuesday through Thanksgiving. The winds will be
strongest on Wednesday with northeast to east winds gusting 35-50
mph in the wind-prone areas of the passes/canyons and coastal
slopes. Humidities in the inland valleys will drop into the high
teens to low 20% range but the fire danger will be mitigated by the
rains over the last week. It looks like Wed and Thu will be the
warmest days, with daytime high temperatures in the low deserts,
valleys and coastal areas reaching the 70s to low 80s.
High temperatures could be as much as 11-14 degrees above seasonal
averages in the inland valleys.

For Friday into next weekend...The ridge of high pressure will be
weakened and displaced by an extensive area of low pressure. This
will bring a return of cooler, unsettled weather with onshore flow,
higher humidity and chances for widespread precipitation next Sat
and Sun. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the
track and timing of multiple shortwave troughs but at this time,
about 55% of ensemble members show precipitation sometime between
Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
240400Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT low clouds based 1000-1500 ft MSL
over coastal waters will spread into coastal San Diego County within
the next few hours. Thereafter, clouds will expand to Orange County
and likely push into western valleys from 06-09Z. 30-40% chance
clouds reach eastern valleys and into the Inland Empire (including
KONT). Bases may lower some overnight (700-1200ft MSL) creating
minor vis reductions (1-5SM) for elevated valleys. Clouds scatter to
the coast 16-18Z. Low clouds return to coastal areas 03-06Z Tue with
lower bases allowing for minor vis reductions along higher coastal
terrain. Less inland extent than tonight with clouds remaining
mostly confined to within 10 miles of the coastline.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions expected through Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...KW