354
FXUS66 KSGX 141117
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
417 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system from the north will move inland through
California today with strong gusty south to southwest winds this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall will spread eastward across the
area today with showers ending tonight. Warmer and dry for
Wednesday through Saturday with high temperatures warming from as
much as 20 to 25 degrees below average today for higher elevations
to within a few degrees of average on Saturday. Another low
pressure system from the north will bring cooling for next Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A low pressure system from the north will move inland through
central California today and into Nevada tonight. There will be
strong gusty south to southwest winds ahead of the cold front this
morning, continuing into early afternoon for the San Diego County
coast and valleys.

High temperatures will be much cooler inland today, as much as 20
to 25 degrees below average for the mountains, inland valleys,
and high desert. High temperatures for today will be mostly in the
60s for the coast and valleys, in the 40s and 50s for the
mountains and high desert, and in the 70s for the lower deserts.

Locally heavy rainfall will spread southward across the area this
morning and early afternoon with most of the precipitation
occurring this morning through this afternoon. There is a slight
chance of showers for tonight.

For Orange, southwestern San Bernardino, and western Riverside
Counties, rainfall will range from around one inch near the coast
to 2 to locally 4 inches for the San Bernardino County mountains
with one-half to one inch for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys.

For San Diego County, amounts near the coast will range from
around one inch north to one-quarter inch south with the mountains
ranging from 1 to 2 inches north to less than one-half inch south
with one-tenth inch or less in the deserts.

Isolated rainfall rates of 0.50-0.75"/hr are possible along the
cold front north of San Diego County, leading to a threat of minor
urban flooding as well as flash flooding and debris flows should
such rates occur over the recent burn scars.

Snow levels will rise above 8000 feet during much of the
precipitation, then fall to around 6500 feet for late tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday will dry with warming with high
temperatures on Wednesday as much as 5 degrees warmer than today
and with Thursday another 5 to locally 10 degrees warmer. Even
with the warming, high temperatures for the mountains and high
desert on Thursday will still be as much as 10 to 15 degrees below
average.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Dry weather with warming will continue into Saturday with Saturday
high temperatures around average for the coast and valleys and a
few to around 5 degrees below average for the mountains and
deserts. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower
to mid 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland
Empire with the mid to upper 80s for the lower deserts.

For early next week, another low pressure system will move to near
the West Coast with increasing model spread in the strength,
timing, and track of this system. The system is generally on a
more inland track than the system for today.

&&

.AVIATION...
140930Z...Cloud bases around 4000-6000 feet MSL, obscuring higher
terrain, will gradually lower to 2000-3000 feet MSL from northwest
to southeast during the day. SCT -SHRA will become steadier RA/+RA
along with an iso TSRA 18-00Z. Vis reduced 2-5SM in +RA. S/SW winds
along the coast will gust up to 30 kts from 16-23Z and in the
mountains and desert slopes 15-05Z. MOD UDDFS and local LLWS or
rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty KPSP. Local vis reduced 3-
5SM in BLDU in deserts through 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue this morning in advance of a
front that will move west to east through the coastal waters from
late morning through afternoon and create conditions hazardous for
small craft (check the Small Craft Advisory for details). Weaker
westerly winds will follow behind the front. Additionally, there is
a slight chance of thunderstorms today. Any thunderstorm could
produce briefly gusty, erratic winds, choppy seas, and lightning. No
additional hazardous marine conditions are expected this evening
through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms and lightning today, most
likely in the afternoon. Surf today will be 3 to 5 feet, with
occasional sets to 6 feet, highest in San Diego County. This will
produce a high rip current risk.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon
     for San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon PDT today for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange
     County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Orange County
     Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM