540
FXUS64 KSHV 011745 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1145 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Freezing rainfall is likely with any precipitation near the
   Ouachita Mountains.

 - Temperatures will briefly return to near-normal by Wednesday,
   before remaining below-normal with precipitation through the
   rest of the week.

 - The next round of precipitation returns by the middle of this
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Radar trends are bringing isolated thunderstorms in for Tyler and
Longview and we have updated these zones and included downstream
Texarkana and Shreveport/Bossier through the noon hour for now.
New NBM forecast data will bring the next issuance in before noon.
No changes to our Winter WX Advisory as some of the heavier
elements may facilitate better wet bulbing with Idabel now
saturated, but farther north in McCurtain and over into SW AR, we
see a good 5 degree spread with air still right above freezing for
most of our area. /24/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Isentropic upglide is and will be the main weather producer for
the Ark-La-Tex over the next 24 hours. In the process of this
activity, shallow cold air will boost the probability of freezing
rain near the Ouachita Mountains, prompting issuance of the Winter
Weather Advisory. There is some potential for a temporal extension
of this product Temperature maximums will not climb much into the
40s before falling back into minimums in the 20s-30s at the
coldest on Monday night before rebounding back to near- normal by
mid- week. Long- range guidance shows the wet pattern continuing
with yet another trough traversing the Intermountain West, exiting
to a confluence of Pacific moisture for precipitation returning
by late Wednesday through most of the rest of the week. Frontal
passage by Saturday will introduce the next reprieve from rainfall
through the next weekend. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Low MVFR/IFR cigs have quickly developed over much of the region and
will continue to spread N across into SW AR/SE OK by early
afternoon, as strong overrunning will persist through the day.
Thus, vsbys will continue to diminish through the afternoon as
periods of -DZ develop, although areas of convection will increase
across the area through the remainder of the afternoon,
maintaining IFR cigs and reduced vsbys. The threat for any -FZRA
will remain just N of the region this afternoon, although isolated
embedded TSRA will be possible mainly along/N of the I-20 corridor
of E TX/N LA. Only have enough confidence to mention TSRA in the
SHV/ELD terminals, but amendments may be needed later this
afternoon at TYR/GGG as well should TSRA redevelop near these
terminals. The convection will begin to shift E and gradually
diminish from W to E late this afternoon into the evening,
although IFR cigs may linger a while until drier air begins to
deepen and cigs gradually lift. MVFR cigs should return to E
TX/TXK by mid to late evening, and across N LA after 06Z. These
cigs should eventually scatter out from W to E by/after daybreak
Tuesday, with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by the end
of the 18Z TAF period. NNE winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become
NNW after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  32  49  33 /  80  50   0   0
MLU  42  32  47  26 /  90  90   0   0
DEQ  37  23  47  25 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  38  28  47  30 /  60  20   0   0
ELD  37  25  45  25 /  80  60   0   0
TYR  43  30  50  34 /  60  10   0   0
GGG  42  28  50  32 /  70  30   0   0
LFK  47  31  53  34 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-060-
     061.

LA...None.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15