508
FXUS64 KSHV 261928
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
128 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

 - Seasonably cool and dry conditions will prevail through the
   Thanksgiving holiday and on into Friday under high pressure.

 - Showers and thunderstorms return by this weekend, beginning
   Friday night and continuing through early Sunday morning as
   sharply colder air invades the region.

 - An increasingly progressive pattern will usher another trough
   and secondary cold front into the region by Monday, possibly
   allowing a brief window of wintry precipitation in SE OK/SW AR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The influence of strong Canadian high pressure will maintain our
current diurnal temperature trends through Friday, resulting in a
seasonably cool and dry Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, overnight
low temperatures will actually be trending slightly below average
with nearly widespread 30s to around 40 degrees for the next few
nights. Near calm winds will promote effective radiational cooling
but some mid-level clouds are expected to shift into our northern
zones later this evening through early Thursday morning, which may
slightly inhibit the temperature fall. However, clear skies appear
likely on Thursday night into Friday morning so look for overnight
lows to be a few degrees colder tomorrow night with some of our
northernmost zones dropping near to just below the freezing mark.
Meanwhile, high temperatures will generally range from the mid 50s
to lower 60s through the end of this week with winds veering more
E/SE and increasing by Friday.

Major changes are in store for the weekend as high pressure will
shift east while a longwave trough spills south out of western
Canada. Weak isentropic ascent ahead of the trough may allow for
showers and isolated thunderstorms to begin across our western
zones on Friday night before becoming more widespread on Saturday
and Saturday night. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, especially during Saturday afternoon and evening as frontal
forcing is maximized. Convection should be exiting the region by
around daybreak on Sunday morning with even colder air filtering
in behind the front.

A brief dry period will follow through Sunday night before another
shortwave digs south from the Intermountain West into the Rockies
and Southern Plains in this increasingly elongated longwave trough
pattern. With a rather cold air mass already in place in advance
of this next shortwave, we can`t rule out some mixed precipitation
types across our far northern zones, possibly Monday morning and
again Tuesday morning. However, the extent of moisture recovery
is still very much uncertain at this point although isentropic
forcing can be notoriously faster to occur in this pattern set-up
so will have to monitor trends in guidance over the next several
days to account for this possibility of a brief wintry mix early
next week in our northern tier counties of SE OK and adjacent SW
AR. Otherwise, it will just be a cold, raw and rainy period for
the remainder of our region for early next week before we begin a
modest warm-up with dry weather returning by mid-week Wednesday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

SKC prevails across the region at the beginning of this period
with occasionally gusty northerly winds. Winds will die down this
evening and stay near-calm overnight. Some VFR cigs look to
develop just before sunrise and lighten up by the conclusion of
the period. No fog concerns at this time due to the dry airmass
but we will monitor for any changes.

/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  60  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  37  58  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  34  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  38  59  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  33  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  39  60  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  60  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  63  37  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57