


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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947 FXUS64 KSHV 171146 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 646 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Mostly clear skies with above average highs will continue through Friday. - Showers will return to the area on Saturday with some severe weather potential during the afternoon and evening hours. - Briefly cooler conditions will follow this weekend`s system, with temperatures closer to fall-like hinted for later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The continued upper-level ridge will bring another dry day with high temperatures firmly in the 80s. This ridge will begin to decrease in amplitude and progress to the east through the day on Friday, which will be followed by the system being monitored for severe weather on Saturday. A shortwave trough from the Intermountain West is expected to move eastward through portions of the Southern Plains and the Ark-La-Tx during the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. The primary hazard looks to be damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes can`t be ruled out either. Some model solutions display morning convection that would limit destabilization later in the day. If this convection dissipates quickly, or never initiates, the risk of hazards other than damaging winds becomes more likely. Agreement on the timing of the trough`s movement also remains uncertain, with early runs of the HRRR being noticeably ahead of other models that are pushing off direct impacts until the evening hours. While drought conditions have begun to take hold of the region, WPC has outlined portions of the region as being at Marginal Risk for flash and urban flooding with this system on Saturday. At the time of writing, much of the region looks like it will see less that 1" of rain. But rainfall estimates look to get closer to, or possibly exceed, 1" for areas east of I-49 by midday on Sunday. While these totals seem underwhelming, these showers could have heavy rain rates that bring enough water in a short enough time to create localized flooding. This is especially true for more urban areas and low- lying areas. Significantly cooler temperatures will be on the coattails of the outgoing front. Afternoon highs on Sunday look to be in the low to mid 70s generally along and north of I-20, with areas south mostly in the upper 70s. These gorgeous seasonal temperatures will give way to another slight warm up through the week with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the week. Long-range models are also hinting at a weak secondary cold front moving through the Ark-La- Tx early Tuesday morning, but additional rain accumulation with it looks to be slim at this time. /57/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 For the 17/12Z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions continue this morning except at KLFK where low stratus and patchy fog have advected northward from the SE TX coast. As a result, IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail at KLFK for the few hours of this TAF period while sites along I-20 should maintain VFR status with only scant coverage of lower clouds through mid morning. Cu field will return by late morning through afternoon before decreasing in coverage by 18/00Z. Light/variable winds this morning will increase between 5-10 kts from the S/SE with brief higher gusts possible in the afternoon across western terminals. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 69 89 62 / 0 0 50 60 MLU 91 65 90 63 / 0 0 40 80 DEQ 86 65 83 51 / 0 10 70 30 TXK 89 69 87 56 / 0 10 60 50 ELD 88 65 86 56 / 0 0 60 70 TYR 89 69 88 58 / 10 10 50 40 GGG 89 67 88 58 / 10 10 50 50 LFK 90 67 90 62 / 20 0 70 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...19