938
FXUS64 KSHV 220559
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1159 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Weak cold front will knock down temperatures today across the
   entire Four State Region but temperatures across our southeast
   half will remain above normal for late November.

 - Next storm system poised to begin impacting our region late
   Sunday Night but especially Monday through Tuesday bringing
   with it at least the potential for heavy rainfall and severe
   storms.

 - Much colder air is poised to infiltrate our region Wed into Thu
   with a chance at freezing overnight temperatures across our far
   northern zones Wed Night and Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cold front has been slow to move into our far northwest zones this
evening and still appears to be northwest of the I-30 corridor at
this late hour Fri Night. Seeing patchy dense fog forming across
this large warm sector near and especially southeast of the I-30
Corridor and this will be the case going forward through the
overnight hours until the front moves through the region. By 3 am,
the front should be through Tyler, Longview and Texarkana with
the front through Lufkin, Shreveport and El Dorado by 6 am. The
front may be through Monroe by sunrise as well but it will be
close. Thus, have not issued a Dense Fog Advisory overnight
because of the progression of the front. Along with the patchy fog
will the the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in advance
of the cold front mainly south of the I-20 Corridor so have
accounted for this in the grids as well.

Southwesterly flow aloft has transitioned to near zonal flow
across the Southern Plains and that will allow this cold front to
move through the region, bringing with is slightly tempered
temperatures and drier dewpoints. Those conditions will hold on
through the day Sunday with return low level flow and moisture
return by Sunday Night across our entire region. On Sunday, upper
ridging across the Southern Plains will transition back to
southwest flow aloft as an upper level trough moves out of the
Four Corners Region of the country on Sunday and into the Southern
Plains on Monday. Our window for seeing strong to severe
thunderstorms along with excessive, heavy rainfall will be during
the day Monday into Monday Night assuming the upstream trough does
not slow down which they have been doing lately so will need to
watch this next storm system`s progression closely as we move
through the upcoming weekend.

WPC has already posted a SLGT Excessive Heavy Rainfall Outlook
mainly west and northwest of our region Sunday Night and across
all but our far southeast zones for the Monday/Monday Night
timeframe. With this last storm system, the heaviest rainfall fell
mostly near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor. Therefore with
early next week`s storm system, it would make sense that the
greatest flooding potential would be across this same region with
less of a flooding threat south and east of the corridor but this
will continue to be monitored. Concerning severe weather
potential, as is always the case this time of year, exact timing
of upper level forcing coinciding with enough instability will
dictate how much (if any) severe weather our region will see early
next week. I would say attm, at least the potential is there for
more in the way of the threat for widespread severe storms Monday
into Monday Night assuming the trough does not eject out further
to the north and west as its predecessor did and this will need to
be closely monitored as well.

Finally, colder air will follow the cold front which will be
poised to move through our region late Tue/Tue Night of next week.
While the colder air will be a pleasant change to the record
breaking warmth our region has witnessed this entire month of
November, the brunt of colder air associated with this post-
frontal airmass will be felt to our north and east as we will only
receive a glancing blow so to speak. Still, near freezing
temperatures will be possible overnight across at least our
northern most zones Wed Night and again Thu Night of next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For the 22/06z TAFs, scattered convection is beginning to develop
in portions of Deep East Texas ahead of an approaching cold front.
Additional development may occur to the southwest and farther to
the northeast into Central Louisiana. Any showers or thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be south of a line from KLFK to
Columbia LA. Current thinking is that convection will remain south
of KLFK. Elsewhere, scattered instances of IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities have developed, especially south of Interstate 20,
but quite notably at KELD. It is very uncertain how long these
conditions will persist through the overnight hours. Conditions
should slowly improve after the passage of a cold front as winds
veer to the northwest and bring some drier low-level air into the
region. VFR conditions should prevail in most locations by 22/15z.
KTXK may be the exception where some MVFR cigs may persist until
early afternoon Saturday.

/09/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  74  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  62  77  51  71 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  46  65  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  67  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  52  70  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  68  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  70  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  58  76  48  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...09