199
FXUS64 KSHV 152337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Near freezing temperatures again Tuesday morning, followed by a
   warming trend taking highs into the 60s and 70s by Thursday.

 - Rainfall returns late Tuesday, with chances continuing through
   Thursday evening. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

 - Friday will be cooler, followed by a continuation of the
   warming trend for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

As the upper level trough which ushered in this morning`s cold
temperatures rapidly lifts north and east, ridging is building in to
take its place. Under mostly clear skies, today`s highs will
still be below average, only making for the upper 40s and maybe
just breaking 50 at the warmest sites, but these will be followed
by a dramatic warming trend through much of the week ahead.

The ridging which builds in today will push out by tomorrow evening,
followed by a shortwave trough digging across north Texas. Before
this new impulse brings a change in the prevailing pattern, we will
see one more morning of sub-freezing or just-barely-above-freezing
low temperatures, followed by a warmer afternoon of 50s and some
lower 60s. That trough over Texas will start to kick up some showers
late Tuesday, maybe just before sunset at the earliest, but
increasing in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. This
rainfall looks to continue into Wednesday morning, diminishing into
the afternoon and evening. A few rumbles of thunder are possible,
but as of this writing, that remains the extent of the weather`s
organization.

Upper level flow will flatten out somewhat by mid to late in the
week, while allowing a follow-up impulse to swing a cold front
across the ArkLaTex Thursday. This driving force will kick up
renewed showers and storms before the area has much of a chance to
dry out from Wednesday`s rain, beginning overnight into Thursday
morning from the north, and drifting south and east through the
day, clearing out after sunset. Zonal flow aloft with southerly
surface flow will favor the aforementioned warming pattern, with
more sites aiming for the 60s on Wednesday and even 70s on
Thursday, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor.

Thursday`s cold front will make a brief dent in the warming pattern,
returning lows to the 30s and 40s Friday morning with highs in the
50s and 60s. But by Saturday, we will be right back to the zonal
aloft/southerly surface flow pattern, and with it, the highs in the
60s and 70s, which will continue through the weekend and into early
next week, with long range signs currently pointing to this above
average warmth continuing for the holidays.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Skies will be clear for a few more hours until the next round of
cirrus moves in from the west overnight tonight. Winds will be
light and variable before strengthening to around 5 kts by
daybreak tomorrow. Winds will stay S to SE through the period with
increasing cloud cover through the day that is expected to stay
VFR. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1006 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  58  48  63 /   0   0  30  40
MLU  27  54  41  62 /   0   0  20  30
DEQ  27  53  40  58 /   0  10  20  20
TXK  32  56  45  61 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  26  52  39  57 /   0   0  30  30
TYR  37  59  51  65 /   0  10  10  20
GGG  32  58  47  65 /   0  10  30  30
LFK  32  60  48  67 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...57