574
FXUS64 KSJT 201944
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight.

- Rain chances continue through tonight, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a high chance (90%+) of at least 2 inches of rainfall
  across the Heartland and Hill Country by this afternoon, with a
  small chance of at least 1 inch of rain (less than 30%) for
  areas from Abilene to San Angelo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through
tonight, with the primary impacts being potential flooding due to
heavy rainfall, strong outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and a
small chance for large hail. Copious amounts of low-level moisture
remain across the area, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values
nearing the 1.75 inch range which is well above average for this
time of year. Models continue to show areas of heavy rainfall
across portions of the northwestern Hill Country, Edwards Plateau,
and southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland, as a
series of shortwave disturbances track across the area. With the
heavy rainfall we are seeing overnight and models are indicating
we should see through the rest of the day today, the Flood Watch
will remain in effect through tonight.

There remains some uncertainty with regards to extent and exact
amounts, but HREF probabilities are now showing a high chance
(90%+) of greater than 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
across the NW Hill Country around Junction, with point totals in
some models creeping above 8 inches in a few instances. Amounts
just to the south are even higher and are reaching 10+ inches (and
a reminder that the South LLano River flows north into Kimble
County from Kerr and Edwards Counties). Soils are dry but this is
the Hill Country where topsoil is shallow and runoff occurs very
quickly. That much rain in a short amount of time could cause
problems despite the recent dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The next storm system(currently approaching the southwest US) will
move across northern Mexico and then move across the southern
Plains this weekend including our area. As a result, expect strong
lift, abundant moisture(PW values 1.25 to 1.75 inches), and a
Pacific cold front will lead to medium to high chances(50-80%) of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. There is a slight
chance of excessive rainfall(15-40%) for much of the area Sunday
through Monday morning which may lead to more flash flooding.
Also, there is a low chance(5-15%) of a few marginal severe
thunderstorms with this this storm system due to weak/locally
moderate instability and good vertical wind shear.

look for a dry and cooler pattern for much of next week. Highs will
be in the upper 50 to lower 70s and lows in the 30s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and
evening hours before tapering off tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions
will likely be likely with any storms that directly impact the
terminals. Otherwise, patchy low clouds and mist will continue
today and continue into the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  74  45  70 /  40   0   0  10
San Angelo  50  74  43  70 /  30   0   0  20
Junction    54  75  47  72 /  50  20  10  20
Brownwood   53  75  44  71 /  60  10   0  10
Sweetwater  50  72  46  68 /  40   0   0  10
Ozona       51  74  46  71 /  30   0   0  30
Brady       55  72  48  70 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42