273
FXCA62 TJSJ 092055 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San
Juan PR 455 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 443 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

* Showers and a few thunderstorms brought 1 to 3 inches of rain,
  isolated up to 4, and gusty winds up to 35 mph across eastern and
  southern Puerto Rico.

* Drier air is moving in this afternoon, and weather will improve
  through tonight.

* Mostly fair weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, with only
  localized showers over western Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

* Seas will stay choppy and there is a moderate rip current risk
  now. A high risk is likely late Wednesday and Thursday as a north-
  northwest swell reaches the islands.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 443 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been affecting the eastern and
southern half of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, Vieques, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands most of today. These showers moved quickly
across the region, producing wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph.
Rainfall totals have ranged from 1 to 3 inches across the El Yunque
area, northwestern and southern Puerto Rico, with localized amounts
up to 4 inches in Ponce, Juana Diaz and Santa Isabel. Elsewhere,
skies have been mostly cloudy with light passing showers. Morning
temperatures stayed in the low to mid-80s due to cloud cover and
rain.

Satellite images show drier air moving into the U.S. Virgin Islands
and eastern Puerto Rico early this afternoon. As the easterly wave
moves away, weather conditions will improve, and showers will
decrease by late afternoon and evening. By Monday, a ridge of high
pressure will strengthen over the region, bringing more stable and
dry weather. Moisture will drop to near one inch late Monday into
Tuesday, and only brief showers are expected over eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A few afternoon showers may form
over western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, but flooding
risk will stay low.

Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period. The ridge will
continue to dominate, keeping fair weather with moderate to breezy
trade winds. Quick showers may move over windward areas overnight
and early in the morning, followed by mostly sunny skies. Any
afternoon showers will be brief and focused over interior and
western Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A mid to upper level ridge will prevail across the local islands
through the forecast cycle, with some weakening anticipated toward
the end of the period as a polar trough and its associated frontal
boundary move across the western and central Atlantic. At the
surface, a broad high-pressure system positioned northeast of the
islands will maintain easterly winds through at least the end of the
workweek. However, as the aforementioned surface front approaches
the area, winds are expected to veer to east-southeast and become
light and variable. Under the subsidence associated with the ridge
aloft, precipitable water values are expected to remain below normal
for much of the workweek. However, an increase in PW values is
expected over the upcoming weekend as the ridge aloft weakens and
the surface front moves closer to the local islands.

As a result, a seasonable weather pattern is anticipated across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a few passing showers
affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning hours,
followed by limited afternoon convection across western and interior
Puerto Rico. Additionally, seasonable temperatures will prevail,
with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across coastal and
lower-elevation areas.

Overall, no significant weather threats are currently anticipated.
However, the flooding potential may increase toward the end of
the period due to moisture advection associated with the
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the period.
However, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
affect TJPS the rest of the afternoon with reduced visibility and
low ceilings. Activity will decrease later today as drier air
moves in. VCSH remains possible for TJSJ due to passing showers.
Winds will be from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots, becoming lighter after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days,
small craft should exercise caution. An easterly wave will bring
additional showers, and isolated thunderstorms this evening, mainly
over the western offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage. A
north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous marine conditions
across the local waters and passages by midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 119 PM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across
most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
with possible life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. By
midweek, a north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous beach
conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of rip currents.
Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of the flag warning system
and to always swim near a lifeguard.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

ERF/MNG/YZR/MRR