844
FXCA62 TJSJ 271750
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

* Choppy to hazardous seas will continue over the next few days.
  Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through midday Friday
  for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage.
  Boaters should use caution elsewhere and even after advisories
  expire.

* Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible at most beaches
  of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through midweek next
  week.

* Breezy to occasionally windy conditions will continue through
  the weekend, especially along exposed coastal areas, and loose
  outdoor items may be blown around.

* A typical early-winter shower pattern will continue, with
  overnight trade-wind showers across both Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands, and limited afternoon showers mainly over
  Puerto Rico. A slight increase in activity, with one or two
  isolated thunderstorms, is possible Friday afternoon and
  Saturday night, with limited flooding impacts where heavier
  showers repeat.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Fresh easterly winds today brought fast-moving and frequent trade-
wind showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico, with a few additional showers and isolated thunderstorms
forming downwind from the islands and the mountains. Radar
estimates since midnight show between 1 and 2 inches of rain in
parts of southeastern Puerto Rico, mainly over Humacao and
Yabucoa. Winds stayed breezy through the day, generally 17 to 23
mph, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph, including a peak of 37 mph in
St. Thomas. Early morning temperatures dropped into the mid 60s,
while afternoon highs reached the lower 90s, especially across
western Puerto Rico.

A passing mid to upper-level trough, a moist airmass spreading
across the region, and a fresh easterly breeze will bring
scattered to locally numerous trade-wind showers tonight. Periodic
showers will reach the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra,
but the most active area will be eastern Puerto Rico, where low-
level convergence will support additional shower development. A
stronger steering flow may carry some of these showers farther
inland into the eastern interior and the San Juan metro area.
Rainfall amounts should remain modest, but repeated showers may
produce minor flooding issues such as ponding on roads and poor
drainage. Breezy conditions, especially along exposed coastal
areas, may also create wind-related impacts, and unsecured light
outdoor items could be blown around.

From Friday into Saturday, a weak ridge aloft behind the departing
trough will provide only slight stabilization. However, a steady
inflow of tropical moisture and a persistent moderate to fresh
steering flow will maintain the typical early-winter shower
pattern. The U.S. Virgin Islands can expect trade-wind showers
from time to time, moving in from the surrounding waters, while
eastern Puerto Rico will see more frequent overnight and early
morning showers. Afternoon convection will remain limited. On
Friday afternoon, slightly cooler-than-normal mid-level
temperatures may support deeper showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Another period of cooling aloft and increasing moisture Saturday
night could bring a slight uptick in showers across the region,
including the U.S. Virgin Islands. Limited flooding impacts remain
possible where heavier showers repeatedly affect the same areas.
Breezy conditions will continue both days, especially along
exposed coastal areas where stronger gusts may move unsecured
light outdoor items.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)...
Issued at 518 AM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Up to breezy conditions are forecast to start the long term period,
particularly Sunday to early Monday as a surface high starts the
period over the western to central Atlantic, tightening the pressure
gradient. 925 mb wind speeds are forecast at high end normal to
slightly above normal values during these days, with model guidance
suggesting a decrease towards normal values Tuesday and below normal
values Wednesday and Thursday. By Tuesday and Wednesday a low
pressure system will move out of the eastern US towards the Atlantic
promoting a looser pressure gradient and, in turn, these decreasing
wind speeds. Precipitable water (PWAT) will be at up to normal
values (1.5 to 1.8 in) during the period with patches of drier and
slightly more humid air providing some variability. Patches of
moisture and nearby troughs will promote showers, steered by mainly
northeasterly flow, reaching windward sectors of the islands at
times and promote a chance of afternoon showers mainly over interior
to SW PR, these can promote brief heavy downpours. Model guidance
suggests a trough approaching the region to end the period
increasing humidity and instability while also resulting in steering
flow veering to become more southeasterly, but uncertainty remains.
925 mb temperatures are forecast to remain at below normal to low
end normal values for this time of the year, reaching more normal
values to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

SHRA will affect TJSJ, TJBQ, and the USVI terminals at times
through the period, with the highest potential for brief MVFR CIG
and VIS, mountain obscurations, and temporary visibility
reductions between 27/22Z and 28/14Z. At TJPS, afternoon SHRA may
cause brief MVFR conditions between 27/16Z and 27/22Z. Surface
winds through FL015 will remain from the east at 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 28 knots through 27/22Z, decreasing to 8 to 12
knots overnight with land-breeze variations, then returning to a
fresh easterly breeze after 28/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface highs over the central Atlantic will maintain an easterly
moderate to fresh breeze through the weekend. These conditions
will keep rough to hazardous seas across the offshore Atlantic
waters and the Anegada Passage, where Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through midday Friday. Boaters should also use
caution across all other local waters, including the waters
surrounding the U.S. Virgin Islands, as choppy seas and occasional
stronger winds may still create challenging conditions. Even
after advisories expire, breezy conditions and choppy seas up to
around 6 feet, especially across the Atlantic waters, are expected
to continue into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 150 PM AST Thu Nov 27 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through midweek next
week, and life-threatening rip currents are possible in these
areas. The risk will drop to low for the south and southeastern
beaches of Puerto Rico on Friday. However, isolated stronger rip
currents may still develop at times, especially near piers,
jetties, and channels. This risk also applies to beaches in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. For beach-specific details, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ711-723.

&&

$$

.DAY CREW...ICP/CVB
.MIDNIGHT CREW...MRR/YZR