177
FXCA62 TJSJ 071739
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
139 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the Atlantic
  shorelines as a northerly swell continues to spread across the
  local waters.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
  the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
  as a tropical wave moves across the forecast area.

* A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected across
  the islands for the next workweek, with limited flooding risk.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers to continue
  with a high risk of rip currents for Saint Thomas and Saint John
  today.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 122 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

For the remainder of today and into Saturday, localized afternoon
showers and a few thunderstorms likely across the western Puerto
Rico due to sea breeze interactions. Elsewhere, especially in
eastern Puerto Rico,Vieques, Culebra, and the U.s. Virgin Islands,
brief passing showers will continue at times from tonight through
saturday.

A strengthening mid level ridge will remain the primary weather
driver through at least Saturday. At the surface, high pressure
anchored over the central Atlantic will sustain and east
southeasterly wind flow. By Sunday, a tropical wave is expected to
move across the region. As moisture increase this will also have
a significant increase on showers and thunderstorms mainly early
Sunday Morning over the eastern portions of PR and USVI. Later on,
these showers activity will move over the interior and western
portions of Puerto Rico.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 350 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Residual moisture from the passage of the tropical wave on Sunday
will linger across the region on Monday, maintaining a moist
environment conducive to scattered showers throughout the day and
isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon. Although
mid-level instability will gradually weaken, localized flooding
remains possible, particularly over western and northwestern
portions of Puerto Rico, where diurnal and local effects may enhance
convection.

By Tuesday, model guidance continues to suggest a gradual
improvement in weather conditions as a mid- to upper-level ridge
strengthens over the area. This ridge will promote increased
atmospheric stability and a gradual drying trend. Relative humidity
values between 700 and 500 mb are expected to range between the 50th
and 25th percentiles, corresponding to near-normal to below-normal
moisture levels for this time of year.
Through at least Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant feature,
maintaining mostly stable and fair weather conditions.
Under the easterly wind flow, expect brief passing showers over
windward and coastal areas during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each day, driven mainly by
local and diurnal effects. Overall, a return to a more typical trade
wind pattern is anticipated for mid-to-late week, with below-average
Relative Humidity and Precipitable Water values, and limited
flooding potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Mostly VF conds across all TAF sites. VCTS is likely at TJBQ due
-TSRA likely across W/NW PR through 0723z. VCSH across most
terminals are expected tonight, which may reduce CIGs/VIS.
 Additionally, winds will become light from the E, btwn 4 - 7 across
JPS, JBQ, and JSJ, while IST and ISX may persist up to 10 kt. Winds
should increase once again btwn 10 - 15 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt,
by 0813/0814z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A surface high pressure system expanding from the western into the
central atlantic will establish moderate to occasionally fresh east
to southeast wind pattern across the region. At the same time, a
north to northeast swell will propagate across the Atlantic waters
and the Caribbean Passages. A smaller follow up northeasterly swell
is expected to arrive over the weekend. As a trade winds
perturbation move closer to the local region an increase on winds
will generate local choppy seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 122 PM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Although the northerly swell will peak some time during this
afternoon, the rip current hazard will remain high through at least
Saturday morning. As the trade winds perturbance move closer to our
region, this will increase winds therefore maintain the risk of rip
currents high.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EM
LONG TERM....MMC
AVIATION...MNG