722
FXCA62 TJSJ 110907
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Tropical Storm Jerry will continue to move further away from the
  northeastern Caribbean today. Deep tropical moisture from Jerry
  will help support rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
  the weekend, maintaining an elevated risk of flooding, mostly
  for interior and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
  Islands.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, elevated flood risk remains in
  place today as additional periods of gusty winds and locally
  heavy rainfall are possible.

* Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through noon today across
  the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage due to a
  fading swell resulting in seas up to 7 feet.

* Warm to hot conditions are expected each day, particularly
  tomorrow into the beginning of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Tropical Storm Jerry will continue to move further away from the
northeastern Caribbean today; however, higher than normal
precipitable water (PWAT) content near 2.20 inches is expected to
linger over the region through at least early Sunday, while the 850-
700mb lapse rates indicate a more unstable profile today. Therefore,
mid-to upper-level cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorm development
associated with the outer bands of TC Jerry will continue across
most local waters. Under southerly steering winds, some of this
activity will move at times across the USVI and over the southern
and eastern sections of PR, where the flood threat remains elevated.

On Sunday and Monday, winds will acquire an easterly component and
become light to moderate, which will favor afternoon convection over
western PR, triggered by the sea breeze convergence in combination
with daytime heating and the available low-level moisture content.
The PWAT content is expected to drop to near normal levels (1.75
inches) by Monday across the entire CWA. Therefore, a transition
into a generally fair weather pattern across the USVI is expected
late Sunday and Monday, while in PR, afternoon thunderstorms are
expected each day over portions of the western interior.

Warm to hot conditions are expected each day, particularly on Sunday
and Monday, where Heat Advisory conditions are expected, mainly over
the north-central to western coastal municipalities of PR. High
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s
across most lower elevations each day; however, the cloud coverage
today could limit the heat threat across the islands in general.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

The long-term forecast remains generally on track. Surface winds
will remain light around Tuesday and Wednesday with an easterly
component, then shift southerly and increase to moderate for the
rest of the forecast period. The southerly component will likely
sustain an elevated heat risk during this time. Drier air will
filter in at the start of the workweek under easterly flow,
displacing the moisture plume related to Jerry. Patches of below-
normal to above-normal moisture will move over the islands Tuesday
through Wednesday.

Mid to upper level ridging will be present at the beginning of
the period, however, model guidance shows an upper-level low
approaching the Caribbean by midweek. The 500 mb temperatures will
become cooler, enhancing thunderstorm development each afternoon.
Model guidance indicates that PWAT values are forecast to
increase, particularly from Thursday through Saturday, as both
moisture from a frontal boundary approaches from the north and
southerly flow steers tropical moisture over the region. These
features may bring PWAT values above 2 inches by the end of the
forecast period which is considered above normal values.

At this time, flood risk remains limited on Tuesday and Wednesday,
but will likely increase to elevated levels from Thursday onward,
particularly during afternoon convection influenced by the
dominant winds, diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence, and local
effects. This means flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams,
and washes will remain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Outer rainbands from TC Jerry will continue to produce SHRA/TSRA
across the local area today. This can lead to tempo MVFR to brief
IFR conds, mainly at TJPS/TIST/TISX. Elsewhere, mostly -RA/VCTS
expected. SCT/BKN lyrs btw FL030-FL120 and mtn tops obscd
expected. SSW winds gradually bcmg SSE up to 15 kt are expected
today with sea breeze variations along the northern coast of PR.

&&

.MARINE...

Gentle to moderate southerly winds as Jerry moves away to the north.
Indirect impacts from Jerry will continue through today, with a
fading swell resulting in seas up to 7 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage. Thus, a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through noon today. Additionally,
periods of showers and thunderstorms from its outer bands will
continue today across portions of the waters. Conditions are
forecast to gradually improve this afternoon onward.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A moderate risk of rip currents is in place today across beaches
along the northern, eastern, and southeastern coast of Puerto
Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. That means life-threatening
rip currents are possible in the surf zone and beachgoers need to
exercise caution. Over the coming days, similar conditions will
dominate. For more information, please refer to the Surf Zone
Forecast for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (SRFSJU) or
visit weather.gov/beach.

Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. If you
become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not
exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have
to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward
the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a
rip current as you will tire quickly.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ711-723.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DS
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH...YZR