Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
262 FXUS65 KSLC 110926 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 226 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain in place through midweek, resulting in dry and mild conditions. Winds will increase Thursday ahead of a storm system that will impact the area Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered over the Great Basin this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry and generally stable northwest flow aloft. Seeing scattered high clouds over the northern half of the forecast area in association with a rather weak wave moving over the top of the ridge. This feature will act to flatten the ridge just a bit, allowing for slight cooling of the airmass over the area. As a result, temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with maxes running 5-10F above seasonal normals. Northern Utah valleys will be on the lower end of that range with inversions limiting warming and allowing pollutants to accumulate. By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge axis is expected to move east of the area as a broad storm system approaches the Pacific coast. Increasing southwest flow will bring some improvement to mixing, with a low chance this will mix out valley inversions, bringing some warmer temperatures. Mixing out will be much more likely on Thursday with the flow increasing further as the system makes its way onshore. Thus, this should be the most mild day of the week with maxes most likely running 10-15F above seasonal normals. Though winds will be breezy, strong winds are looking less likely, with a 20-30 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or more for western Utah Thursday afternoon. For Friday through the weekend, confidence is still high that a storm system will impact the area. However, guidance yesterday was more evenly split between two scenarios: a progressive open wave moving across the area that would bring colder conditions and a higher potential for precipitation, and a splitting system with one piece staying primarily north of the area and the other moving across the Desert Southwest bringing less cold temperatures and a lower potential for precipitation. Guidance has been increasingly trending toward the latter solution so POPs and snow amounts have gone down for Friday into Saturday. However, the splitting solution has been accompanied by a slower moving low over the Desert Southwest, so this would keep the potential for precipitation over southern Utah through the weekend. Thus, POPs for southern Utah have increased overall for Saturday into Sunday. Drier conditions are then expected to return through day seven. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal through the TAF period under dry conditions and gradually decreasing high cloud cover this afternoon. Light southeasterly winds continue this morning before transitioning to the northwest around 19z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions persist for all regional terminals through the TAF period. Light, generally terrain driven winds for all terminals today. A persistent deck of high clouds is expected to remain across the airspace this morning, with slight clearing this afternoon and evening. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity