277
FXUS65 KSLC 251107
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
407 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near seasonal temperatures are expected across the
region today alongside dry conditions. High pressure builds into
the region through the middle of the week, breaking down by the
weekend as our next potential storm system arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today we find the forecast area in an atmosphere
resembling a post-frontal environment as a period of cold
advection has brought a cooler airmass across the northern half of
Utah and southwest Wyoming. As compared to yesterday, high
temperatures across the northern area will be around 5 degrees
cooler, placing us right around climatological normals for this
time of year. Across the southern area, little cooling from the
aforementioned airmass will allow temperatures to remain a skosh
above normal. All things considered, a pleasant day as dry
conditions prevail with relatively cool temperatures alongside
a veil of upper level clouds.

The longwave trough that brought the cooler airmass will continue
shifting eastward through the middle of the week, allowing an
upstream ridge to begin building over the Western U.S. As such,
dry and mild conditions will remain in place through much of the
upcoming week as this remains the dominant weather feature over
the forecast area. That said, a midweek grazing low-amplitude
shortwave trough will bring low probability (15-20%) of light snow
showers across the far northern Bear River Mountains. Little to no
impact is expected as moisture and strong dynamics will be
lacking. Otherwise, anticipate area-wide temperatures to increase
gradually through about Thursday as warmer west to southwest flow
spreads across Utah and southwest Wyoming.

Toward the end of the week and over the weekend there is still
strong agreement amongst ensemble guidance in the aforementioned
ridge retrograding into the Gulf of Alaska and a broad trough
developing over a portion of the Western U.S. Big picture trends
that will come as a result will be cooling temperatures and
increasing chances of precipitation across at least a portion of
Utah. At this time there is still a considerable amount of
uncertainty to work through with how progressive this trough is,
where the strongest forcing will line up, and the overall timing.

To put the uncertainty into perspective, a majority of models
(~70%) are supportive of the ridge beginning to break down by
Friday evening, however, only about 30% of the models support
light precipitation across the far northern Utah mountains. Come
Saturday, about 45% of models support an open wave trough forming
over the region while about 55% of models begin to develop yet
another cutoff trough over the western Great Basin region. Within
the open wave solutions, about 25-30% of the possible outcomes
support a trough deep enough to produce more widespread
precipitation. Deep enough to form into a cutoff by Sunday
(supported by around 70% of guidance). But where does this feature
cutoff? How does this influence the forecast? A more progressive,
lower amplitude open wave would favor lighter precipitation across
the north. A deeper open wave and/or a cutoff low would favor
potentially more widespread precipitation... but this is entirely
dependent on where the cutoff low develops.

How about precipitation potential? For many valley areas across
northern and southern Utah, the spread in the 10th to 90th
percentile is quite literally nothing to upwards of 0.75 to 1 inch
of QPF. For the mountains, the range is even larger (0 to upwards
of 1.5 inches). Of course, with uncertainty in the track of the
low and the associated cold airmass, there is also great
uncertainty in snow levels. Valley snow? Possible... but
probabilities for 1 inch or greater range from 10 to 40% for lower
elevations. Needless to say, there is a wide range of possible
outcomes for the weekend ahead... so keep staying up to date with
the latest forecasts as models (hopefully) converge on a solution.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will be light and vary from northwest to
southeast through around 17Z. Winds will then prevail from the
northwest through 03Z. Broken to overcast conditions in VFR range
will transition to few or scattered clouds much of the day, with
scattered to broken clouds building in late.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broken to overcast conditions
in VFR range in southwest Wyoming and portions of northern Utah will
transition to mostly clear conditions by 17Z. Mostly clear
conditions with light winds will last through 03Z, with clouds
building in late. Throughout southern Utah, mostly clear conditions
with light winds will continue.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity