673
FXUS65 KSLC 232222
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
322 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dense fog and low stratus are expected to continue to
impact portions of northern and central Utah tonight into Monday
morning. A dry cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon
into Tuesday morning, bringing cooler temperatures. There is a
potential for a winter storm next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low that had been moving across AZ is now
centered just east of the Four Corners area. Associated light
precipitation and clouds that were in place earlier today across
southern Utah have mostly diminished. Meanwhile, across the north,
the low stratus trapped in the valleys continue to gradually erode,
but remains largely in place along the central and southern Wasatch
Front, Cache Valley, and Bear River Valley.

A weak ridge will build into Utah this evening as the upper low
exits the region. This would tend to increase stabilization of the
airmass, continuing to trap low-level moisture in place across
northern and portions of central Utah. Some things working against
this are increasing winds aloft and some high clouds which will
spread into the area tonight. At this time, the high clouds look to
remain fairly thin, and if that holds, it should have little effect
on temperatures and thus dewpoint depressions tonight. The
increasing winds aloft (which are not even all that strong at 10-
15kt at 700mb) may help mix the higher elevation sites, but should
have little effect on the valley floors. In what should be lowering
inversion heights, fog could potentially be more likely tonight
compared to just a low stratus deck.

The weak ridge tonight will yield to a trough grazing northern Utah
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Although this trough is a bit weaker
than previous runs were indicating, it will still push a relatively
dry cold front into Utah. Increased mixing ahead of and with this
front should help reduce the chances of fog/stratus reappearing
after tomorrow morning. Spotty precipitation, mainly over the
northern mountains, may accompany this cold front, but any amounts
are expected to be very minor. The 75th percentile of QPF in the
HREF remains largely less than 0.2 inches, and this is more than
what is in the NBM, where the 75th percentile largely remains less
than 0.1 inches.

A broader ridge will build back into the area on Tuesday, bringing a
period of relatively benign weather through Thanksgiving Day. For
Thanksgiving weekend, model consensus has the next trough affecting
the western CONUS. However, cluster analysis and global
deterministics show some differences in timing along with varying
amounts of splitting, and therefore, large spread in precipitation
amounts. This time, however, temperatures may become cold enough for
valley snow by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Persistent MVFR cigs due to a stubborn stratus
deck may break up late this afternoon and evening (60% chance). If
such break up materializes, expect at least a few hours of VFR
conditions into the evening before the next round of fog develops.
Current expectation is that fog will redevelop between 3Z and 6Z,
causing flight categories to dip to at least MVFR if not IFR. That
said, the chance of another thick stratus deck developing is less
than last night, estimated in the 30-50% chance range. Winds
overnight will be light out of the southeast, less than 5 kts.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Valley fog and low clouds are
likely to redevelop tonight, generally for valleys along/west of I-
15 and from around KDTA northward. Stratus formation is not expected
to be as thick and widespread however. Impacted locations could see
flight conditions as low as LIFR. Outside of the fog and low clouds,
expect VFR conditions with only a few high clouds. Winds across the
region will be light.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

Cheng/Van Cleave

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