Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
729 FXUS65 KSLC 052148 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 348 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A trailing shortwave associated with yesterdays Pacific system is currently clipping northern UT and SW WY resulting in light scattered showers. While cooler temperatures persist today and tomorrow, temperatures look to warm up through the week with dry conditions developing alongside. On Thursday, tropical moisture pushes north into the forecast area transitioning us to a wet pattern for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: * Scattered light showers are expected to continue across far northern UT, SW WY, and the Uintas this afternoon and will subside following sunset. * Southwest flow aloft persists as ridging builds over the Southern Plains throughout the week. As a result, dry conditions with a warm up will occur through the week. * Tropical moisture from TS Priscilla, and perhaps moisture from Hurricane Octave will phase into an incoming trough. This will shift the forecast area back into a wetter, and perhaps cooler pattern as we enter the weekend. A trailing shortwave associated with the Pacific system that passed through the area this weekend will continue to spark scattered showers across northern UT, SW WY, and the Uintas this afternoon. Satellite water vapor imagery supports this as dry air is currently filling in behind a stream of midlevel moisture with this shortwave providing just enough ascent with ample moisture in place to give us one more round of showers. This activity is expected to gradually subside following sunset this evening as the shortwave clears the area further east into WY. By tomorrow, a rex block is expected to develop off the western U.S. coastline as a low develops just off the southern CA coast with ridging to its north. At the same time, ridging will begin to develop over the Southern Plains, which will serve to keep the aforementioned low in place. As a result, dry and benign conditions are expected to develop across the forecast area with a warming trend through late Thursday to early Friday. Height rises across the forecast area will be the driving factor behind this warm up as the ridge across the Southern Plains gradually retrogresses toward the southwestern U.S. through Friday. As we draw closer to the end of the workweek, a longwave trough will dive south down the Canadian west coast and meander just off the coast of the Pacific NW. Through the weekend, the aforementioned ridge to our south will gradually weaken making way for this trough to push inland. While this is occurring, tropical moisture from TS Priscilla and perhaps even Hurricane Octave will phase into the trough, making its way up to the forecast area. Ensemble guidance appears to favor this solution more than previous forecasts, though timing still appears uncertain as to when the trough will push inland. As such, precipitation totals generally have a wide spread amongst ensemble guidance at this time. Regardless of amounts, it does appear that precipitation will return to the forecast area in some capacity as early as Friday. It does also appear that some areas across the forecast area could see some impressive rainfall amounts, though locations are difficult to iron out at this time given the complexity of the pattern. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue with skies clearing overnight. Light northerly winds will transition to light southerly winds overnight. .Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Isolated showers across the far northern airspace will diminish this evening with skies clearing out overnight. Winds will be light and variable. && .FIRE WEATHER...This past weekends storm system is currently passing through the area with associated showers ongoing across northern UT and the Uintas. By this evening, the activity will subside making way for a dry period with warming temperatures through Thursday afternoon. Moisture will begin pushing in from the south beginning as early as Thursday afternoon into Friday with increasing humidities and chances for rain returning to the forecast as a result. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Worster For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity