


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
676 FXUS65 KSLC 162111 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 311 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A broad low pressure system will depart the region through Thursday night. High pressure will then become dominant Friday into the weekend, bringing drier and milder conditions. Another system, likely grazing in nature, then brushes by late Sunday into Monday. && Key Points: - A departing Pacific system will maintain unsettled conditions across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through Thursday night, bringing low elevation rain showers and snow showers above 7000 ft or so. - Cold air will remain across the region through Friday morning. This may result in a period of freezing conditions in areas where the growing season has yet to cease, such as portions of west- central Utah, the western Uinta Basin, and Castle Country. - A quick moving system, likely grazing in nature, is expected to slide through the area Sunday evening into early Monday. This will bring modest precipitation chances to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, and bring a return to cool temperatures behind it. .DISCUSSION...Unsettled weather continues for the northern portion of the forecast region as a large cutoff low currently centered over Wyoming continues to slowly depart the region. Across the north, lingering moisture and support from the low is resulting in some low elevation rain showers and high elevation (generally above 7000 ft or so) snow. Anticipate this precipitation will continue to gradually wind down as the low further departs the region through the evening hours Thursday. Additionally, cold temperatures remain with afternoon readings generally around 10 to 15 degrees below climatological normal. The aforementioned cold temperatures persisting overnight look to be the remaining source of impactful weather with this system in regards to freeze potential in locations where the growing season may still be ongoing. To that end, portions of west-central Utah, the western Uinta Basin, and Castle Country will be the most likely to see such conditions, and the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning accordingly. Forecast temperatures if anything fall a couple of degrees in comparison to Thursday morning`s lows, so lower elevations that may have been on the edge will be more likely to see freezing conditions tonight. Additionally, cloud cover is expected to decrease, supporting more effective radiational cooling. While confidence is too low to include in tonight`s headlines, some outlying areas of Utah Valley (largely from roughly Salem to around Goshen) will drop into the mid to low 30s. Currently looking at the forecast and models, would say around a 20-40% chance for a brief period of freezing conditions. Other than freezing temperatures, the extra moisture across the north and calmer conditions will result in some potential for fog development in sheltered valley locations across the Cache Valley and Wasatch back. From Friday into the weekend ridging and high pressure will become a more dominant weather influence. With a corresponding increase in drier air, precipitation chances will be minimal through midday Sunday. Additionally, the ridging will help to impart a warming trend. Afternoon highs Friday will still be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but by Sunday push back largely to above normal. The overwhelming majority of model ensemble members continue to support another system, with timing now favored more in the late Sunday to early Monday time frame. Models also have continued to trend towards the scenario where this system is more grazing in nature, with this supported by around 87% of ensemble members now. As such, it appears this quick moving system will push a cold front southward into Utah and Wyoming late Sunday, which will start to wash out somewhere across central Utah Monday given the grazing nature to the system. Showers will accompany this front, but the overall water numbers have come down markedly. NBM 25th percentile is actually fully dry, with the 75th percentile carrying around 0.05" to 0.10" for lower northern elevations and up to around 0.25" for the northern mountains. Snow levels will drop to around 6000 to 6500 feet behind the front, but given limited moisture, this isn`t expected to result in much outside some light accumulations for the mountain short of one of the outlier solutions verifying. With the cold air pushing in behind the front Tuesday morning looks to be quite cold, with more potential for widespread low elevation freeze conditions at some locations where the growing season has persisted. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will be light and variable through 02Z when light southeast winds set up. Light southeast winds will last through around 18Z when winds transition to northwest. Mountain obscuration will last into the afternoon. Broken clouds in VFR range will transition to scattered. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broken clouds will decrease to scattered throughout southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. Patchy to locally dense fog will set up in some northern valleys. This will bring conditions in IFR or LIFR range from roughly 09-15Z. Mountain obscuration will last much of the day. Throughout southern Utah, clear conditions are likely. Light winds will be in place throughout. && .FIRE WEATHER...Lingering precipitation across northern Utah will come to an end Thursday evening through the night as the broad low responsible for unsettled weather departs. Behind it high pressure will build in leading to drying and warming conditions into the weekend. Deep west to southwesterly flow will then increase on Sunday ahead of the next system. This system looks to be more grazing in nature, sending a cold front southward late Sunday into early Monday. Some showers will likely accompany the front, though overall forecast water amounts are fairly meager. Colder air then returns following the passage of the front. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ114-115-120. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Wilson FIRE WEATHER...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity