397
FXUS65 KSLC 010930
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
330 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to bring calm weather to
the CWA with weak inversions likely across northern UT valleys
through midweek. A cold front looks to traverse through northern
UT late Wednesday night into Thursday morning featuring the return
of precipitation for northern UT and southwest WY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Ridging aloft looks to persist through at least
midweek bringing dry and warm conditions to the forecast area.
Through Wednesday next week, temperatures will gradually increase a
few degrees, eventually running around 5-10 degrees above average
each day. On Sunday, a lobe of vorticity will break off from the
northern stream and meander off the southwest CA coast. This feature
will eject northeast early Monday as it attempts to phase back into
the mean flow as a shortwave trough, drawing in upper moisture with
it as it traverses toward the area. While precipitation is not
expected due to dry low levels, clouds will briefly return to the
region before briefly retreating Tuesday afternoon.

With high pressure aloft, inversions will continue across our
northern valleys over the next few days with a warm nose continuing
to appear on soundings. However, visibility should generally remain
above 6 miles due to the late October / early November sun angle.
For our valleys, the HREF continues to show <5-10% probability of
visibilities less than 6 miles over the next couple days. Some
locally lower visibilities may occur in the morning hours when the
inversion is at its strongest and particulates begin to settle more
versus the daytime hours. Regardless, particulates will be airborne
and trapped under an inversion resulting in less than favorable air
quality, so be sure to limit time outside.

On Wednesday, ensemble guidance is in great agreement that a
longwave trough will push inland off the West Coast. However, some
disagreement among ensemble members has begun to show as ~40% of all
ensemble members generally have a less amplified trough pushing
inland with ~60% showing a slightly more amplified solution. The
latter would provide better forcing and presumably better moisture
return to the area resulting in higher PoPs and perhaps higher QPF
amounts. The other solution would still have chances for rain as the
trough should arrive with enough forcing and moisture to spark
showers, though PoPs would be more muted. Regardless, guidance does
appear favorable for precipitation to return to northern UT and
southwest WY just after midweek. Lastly, a weak cold front will push
through northern and central UT as the trough traverses east cooling
temperatures to seasonal norms on Thursday. This will be short lived
as high pressure builds back in Friday rebounding temperatures to
around 5 degrees above normal.

Looking toward the end of next week, additional shots at
precipitation chances across northern UT and southwest WY look to
continue as various shortwave perturbations appear to traverse
northern UT in an otherwise prevailing zonal flow regime. Confidence
remains low regarding coverage and strength, though ensembles seem
relatively consistent with developing at least one shortwave trough
near the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions continue at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Scattered high clouds will continue through
the daytime hours today before clearing out tonight. The transition
to northwesterly winds this afternoon is expected to be later than
typical, most likely closer to around 20-21z but could be as late as
00z. Wind speeds should be predominantly light regardless of
direction, 6kt or less through at least this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Dry conditions across the
airspace yields VFR conditions at all regional terminals through the
TAF period. Few to scattered high clouds will continue through the
daytime hours today before clearing out tonight. Expect light,
diurnally driven winds to continue for all terminals.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Cheng

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