Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
752 FXUS65 KSLC 031110 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 410 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected across the region through mid-week. Southwesterly flow will increase on Wednesday ahead of a series of weak systems which will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION...A compact and weakening shortwave trough, being what is left of a closed low that was off the SoCal coast yesterday, is noted over Nevada currently, and will continue to eject across Utah later this morning into this afternoon. Other than high clouds which will mostly clear out by this afternoon, very little moisture is associated with this system. As such, this storm will have little impact on the forecast area today. Expect mainly some enhanced southwesterly winds across southwest and west-central Utah and over the higher ridgelines, and temperatures may cool slightly (while remaining well above climatological normals) in some areas. A low-amplitude ridge will settle back into the area tomorrow, amplifying tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Fairly benign weather can be expected tomorrow. On Wednesday, southwesterly flow will increase as the next trough comes ashore over the West Coast. Deterministic models are continuing to show decent H7 winds of 40- 50kt over southwest through west-central Utah. Combined with a southerly surface pressure gradient, gusty winds can be expected across western Utah with isolated areas potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. Probabilities of reaching criteria have increased in the NBM, which now has a pocket of 30-45% across western Millard and Juab Counties, otherwise probabilities remain generally less than 25% across the rest of west-central and southwest Utah. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is also showing a modestly strong signal for strong winds for Wednesday. Latest model trends continue with the consensus of the trough weakening before crossing northern Utah Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation amounts remain on the low side. Even at the 75th percentile, the NBM has generally 0.25 inches or less across the northern mountains where precipitation maxes out. The exception is the Bear River Range, where the NBM 75th percentile values are closer to 0.4 inches. While temperatures will cool for Thursday (to values closer to, or slightly above, climatological normals), snow levels will remain well above valley floors. Later on Friday into Saturday morning, a second trough will drop in from the northwest and graze southwest Wyoming. This could bring another round of light precipitation to northern Utah Friday afternoon through Friday night, with amounts in the NBM probabilistic spectrum fairly similar to the previous storm. Thereafter, cluster analysis of global ensemble members indicate high confidence of a ridge building back into the area for the weekend, with the majority (>70%) of members going with the idea of a fairly amplified ridge. && .AVIATION....AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly winds will continue, becoming light and variable at times through the morning. There is low confidence in when northwesterly winds take over...anywhere between 16-22z, though the most likely timing is around 18-19z. VFR conditions will prevail with scattered high clouds through the morning. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light, terrain-driven winds will persist through the morning, with southwesterly winds picking up after 18z across mainly southwest Utah, southwest Wyoming, and higher terrain. Gusts to 20-25kts are expected through roughly 23- 00z. VFR conditions will prevail with SCT-BKN high clouds through the morning. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity