874
FXUS65 KSLC 171047
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
347 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Valley rain and high elevation snowfall looks to
continue through the morning across northern UT and southwest WY,
subsiding by the early afternoon today at the latest as high
pressure briefly settles in. Another system is forecast to bring
rain and high elevation snowfall to the forecast area on Tuesday
with the highest impacts expected across southern UT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Key Points:

- Valley rain and high-elevation snow continues across most of the
forecast area through this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase once again late tonight
into Tuesday morning with the arrival of another system.

- A third system looks to impact the forecast area near the end of
the work week, though uncertainty remains with respect to northern
extent of impacts.

Currently, a negatively tilted trough is pushing east into Wyoming.
Low to Mid-level cyclogenesis will continue deepening the trough
with moisture wrapping around its northern axis. This has led to a
persistent region of stratiform rain across lower elevations and
snowfall across higher elevations which is forecast to persist
through sunrise for most of northern UT and the early afternoon for
southwest WY. Additionally, snow levels will continue to drop across
northern UT and southwest WY as colder air located over southern UT
advects north yielding snow levels just shy of 7000ft. Additional
accumulations on top of what has already fallen will remain modest
with generally a trace to 2" expected into the early afternoon, with
the higher range of accumulations favored with increasing elevation.

In the early afternoon today, transient ridging settles in over the
Four Corners with increasing subsidence shutting off precipitation
across the entirety of the forecast area. However, cloudy conditions
will persist with the presence of mid-upper level moisture streaming
in from our southwest as another system gradually approaches the
area.

Beginning late tonight into early Tuesday, precipitation chances see
an increase once again across southern UT as modest ascent
overspreads the region ahead of yet another cutoff low progressing
east into Southern California. With time, this cutoff low will
remain well to our south and continue east through AZ without
phasing back into the mean flow. This is due to longwave ridging
building within the northern stream over Canada which will prevent
the cutoff low from phasing back into the mean flow until it is well
east of the Great Basin. Ultimately, the lack of a northern shift
compared to the most recent system will more than likely result in
less precipitation across northern UT / southwest WY and favor
southern UT. The bulk of the activity will generally occur within a
moist southerly flow regime, keeping snow levels 8000ft or greater
through Tuesday. Southwest UT is forecast to see the most moisture
from this event yielding around 0.5-1" QPF with higher amounts along
southwesterly flow favored terrain. These areas include Pine
Mountain, Brian Head, and Boulder Mountain where QPF in excess of 1"
will be located. The aforementioned locations will also be where the
highest snowfall totals are forecast to be located with the three
generally ranging from 3-9" of snow, though some locally higher
amounts can`t be ruled out, particularly for Brian Head and Pine
Mountain where there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding 9".

Following this system exiting the region on Thursday, another system
looks to impact the western U.S. near the end of the workweek.
However, some uncertainty remains regarding if this system will,
once again, "split" like the most recent system and the upcoming
system or if it will hold together as it approaches the Great Basin.
Ensemble guidance has become more keen on the idea of yet another
cutoff low diving to our south which would once again favor southern
UT, although it remains uncertain as to whether it will remain south
or if it will eject northeast which would have a notable impact on
QPF and snowfall accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected throughout the day at
the SLC terminal, though cigs should remain at or below 6000 feet
AGL through much of the morning. Southerly winds are anticipated
throughout the day with a 20 percent chance of a late wind shift to
the northwest.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Valley rain and mountain snow
focused primarily over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this
morning is expected to taper off by the early afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail for much of the airspace, with MVFR/IFR cigs
for northern Utah locations above 7000 feet this morning in snow.
VFR conditions are expected to become widespread by early afternoon.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
     UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity