Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
977 FXUS65 KSLC 161025 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 325 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A storm system over southern California is bringing rain and snow to southern Utah early this morning. As the low moves across Utah and southwest Wyoming today and tonight, rain and snow will become more widespread before tapering off Monday morning. After a brief break on Monday, a series of storm systems will impact the area beginning Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: - Periods of moderate to heavy rain across southwest Utah will continue into Sunday afternoon, resulting in rises on all area rivers, streams and normally dry washes. Flash flooding is possible in prone areas including slot canyons and near the Forsyth Burn Scar. - Snow levels across southern Utah fall to near 7000 feet by Sunday evening, with accumulations of 6-12" above 9000 feet Sunday through Monday. - Valley rain/mountain snow spreads into central/northern Utah Sunday afternoon, persisting overnight before tapering off Monday morning, with 2-8" of snow expected above 7500 feet. An upper low remains parked over southern California this morning, with the nose of the associated upper jet in the vicinity of southwest Utah. In the moist and unstable airmass have seen periods of rain in the southwest corner of the state, with snow levels currently above 9,000 feet. Across central and northern Utah, precipitation has been spotty at best. The low will be on the move today, tracking southwest to northeast across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Monday morning. The arrival of the low will cause increasing coverage of valley rain/mountain snow for southern Utah through midday, with the heaviest precipitation shifting into northern and central portions of the area during the afternoon and early evening as the storm system continues its journey. The arrival of the low will not only bring increased moisture and instability, but decreasing temperatures as well. As a result, will see snow levels drop to around 7,000 to 7,500 feet for much of the area by Sunday night. Accumulations with the system will be greatest over southern Utah, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the mountains. Additionally, the amount of rainfall will result in rises on southern Utah rivers. High pressure behind the exiting storm system will bring a brief break in the action for Monday. However, another closed low is expected to move onshore over California Monday evening. Confidence is high that this system will slowly trek into Arizona by midweek, bringing additional valley rain and mountain snow to primarily southern Utah. After Wednesday, spread in the guidance becomes quite large with regard to what happens with the low, in particular how it interacts with a Pacific Northwest storm system moving onshore. Because of this, confidence is relatively high that Utah and southwest Wyoming will see cool and unsettled conditions, but the details of that, including the potential for precipitation for the middle to latter part of the week, remain murky at this time. After the interactions of these two storm systems, the majority of the guidance shows drier conditions developing by the upcoming weekend, with temperatures staying on the cool side. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly flow will persist at the KSLC terminal ahead of an incoming system. A PROB30 exists from 11z to 15z as scattered light showers are expected at the terminal. A brief lull is expected through 18z where prevailing -RA will take hold through 02z, though this activity may last a couple hours longer. At a minimum, mountain obscurations are possible this afternoon with perhaps a few instances of MVFR CIGs. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread rain showers are expected across the forecast area through this TAF period as a system moves closer to the forecast area. Most of the activity will stay confined to southern UT through the morning with the rest of UT and southwest WY following in the afternoon. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected with perhaps a few instances of MVFR CIGs, particularly across southern UT and KEVW where IFR CIGs are expected in the late afternoon. Additionally, snow appears likely at KEVW following 00z with high confidence of a changeover following 06z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ125. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Worster For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity