669
FXUS65 KSLC 141018
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
418 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Increased moisture associated with a system set to move
through tonight and tomorrow will result in unsettled weather.
Colder temperatures will set in as the system departs, though drier
conditions and a gradual warmup are expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Points:
- A moist Pacific system will move through the region through
midweek, bringing widespread rain along with some high elevation
snow. Localized flash flooding will be possible in rain sensitive
areas with thunderstorms on the warmer side of the system.

- Increasing winds ahead of a deepening Pacific system will peak
this afternoon. Widespread wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range are
expected, especially across portions of southern and western Utah.

- Colder temperatures will return following the passage of a cold
front Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Potential is noted for
locally freezing temperatures in some locations Thursday and/or
Friday morning.

Morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a closed low centered
just off the central Cal coast with Utah under a southwesterly flow
aloft. Latest analysis shows PWATs between 0.6-0.7 inches across
northern and eastern Utah, and between 0.4-0.5 inches across
southwest Utah. These values are 125-200% of normal for this time of
year. A weak disturbance with an associated jet streak that lifted
southwest through northeast across Utah produced showers and
thunderstorms across mainly western and northern Utah overnight.
These showers continue across northeast Utah early this morning. A
few showers may linger across mainly northern Utah into the
afternoon, otherwise the airmass will be a bit more stable across a
good portion of the area. Southerly winds will continue to increase
today ahead of the approaching storm system, strongest across the
western valleys. Due to these winds, good mixing will aid in
maintaining temperatures near to just slightly below normal.

The upper low will approach Utah this evening. As it does so,
increased upper diffluence along with a surface cold front will
produce an area of fairly widespread precipitation which will begin
to move into western Utah by late this afternoon. This area of
precipitation will then gradually lift northeast into tomorrow,
focusing mostly across northern Utah for Wednesday and into
Thursday. Locally moderate rainfall within this wider area of
precipitation could lead to isolated flash flooding in some of the
more prone areas, especially this evening. The heaviest
precipitation is expected across western and northern Utah. The
latest NBM has a 40-60% chance of greater than 1 inch of
precipitation between tonight and Thursday along the northern and
central Wasatch Front and Wasatch Mountains, and a 35-45% chance
across southwest Utah.

Cooler temperatures will settle into the area behind the cold front.
Besides bringing max temperatures down to 10-15 degrees below normal
for Wednesday and Thursday, lowering snow levels will lead to
mountain snow in areas above 6500-7500 feet. The upper Cottonwoods
and high Uintas have a 50-60% chance of seeing greater than 4 inches
of snow. For other mountain areas, the probability is less than 40%.

High pressure will build into the area for the end of the week and
into the weekend. This will result a warming and drying trend across
the area. However, the large-scale pattern remains fairly
progressive, with the next storm system potentially impacting the
area near the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Showers and thunderstorms reducing CIGS/VIS into
the MVFR range will end by 11Z, with VFR conditions following
throughout the day. Winds may be light and variable through 13Z
before southerly winds become re-established and continue throughout
the day. After 02Z the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
will increase again, and continue through the overnight hours with
periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS possible.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and
thunderstorms reducing CIGS/VIS into the MVFR range across northern
Utah/southwest Wyoming will end by 15Z, leaving VFR conditions under
southerly flow across the region through the daytime hours. These
winds will gust in excess of 30 KTS across southwest Utah this
afternoon. After 00Z this evening moisture will spread back into the
region bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
across the state through the overnight hours. Periods of MVFR and
local IFR conditions can be expected, particularly across northern
Utah/southwest Wyoming.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system over the West Coast this morning will
slowly work its way inland today, then across Utah Wednesday into
Thursday. For today, expect gusty south winds to develop once again,
strongest across southwest Utah where gusts over 40 mph will be
common this afternoon. Generally isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will linger this morning into this afternoon, focusing
mostly across northern Utah. By late afternoon or evening,
precipitation will increase from the west. Scattered to numerous
showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms with a
good chance (>50%) of wetting rain can be expected over western and
northern Utah into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday, showers will be more confined to northern Utah.
Additionally, temperatures will trend cooler Wednesday into Thursday
behind a cold front. Thereafter, a gradually warming and drying
trend can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds into
the area. The next storm system will potentially impact the area by
the beginning of next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for UTZ122-123.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Seaman

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