307
FXUS65 KSLC 162233
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
333 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will continue to bring valley
rain and mountain snow to the forecast area through tonight. High
pressure will bring a temporary drying trend Monday, before the
next system impacts the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...A negatively tilted shortwave
trough is currently lifting through the eastern Great Basin. Broad
large scale ascent ahead of this wave is forcing a band of
moderate to at times heavy precipitation across northern and
eastern Utah. Snow levels within this band remain above 8000 feet,
but may be temporarily lowering within heavier bursts of
precipitation. Meanwhile the low-mid level cold pool associated
with the ejecting wave is resulting in convective precipitation
across southwest and south central Utah, where lightning and small
hail have accompanied the stronger cells.

Heading into the evening hours, the ejecting wave will continue
northeast, inducing low-mid level cyclogenesis across southwest
Wyoming. As this occurs precipitation across northern
Utah/southwest Wyoming will persist within a region of deformation
and to some degree wrap-around moisture. The colder air across
southwest Utah will lift northeast with time, allowing snow levels
to fall near 7000 feet this evening. Accumulation in excess of 6
inches looks likely above 8000 feet, with totals below 8000 feet
limited to the 2-5" range. Given the more significant
accumulation will remain across upper slopes with limited impact
have held off on winter headlines across northern Utah for this
evening. Meanwhile, convective precipitation will gradually wane
with the loss of daytime heating across southern Utah. However
orographic precipitation will persist across southwest Utah
through this evening within a low level southwesterly flow before
gradually tapering off overnight.

As the ejecting trough moves away from the region late tonight,
shortwave ridging will temporarily become established Monday. This
ridging will bring an end to any lingering precipitation by mid-
morning as a more stable airmass settles across the forecast area.

Late in the short term period large scale ascent associated with
the next upstream low will begin spreading across southwest Utah,
which will bring a chance for precipitation late Monday night.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...An active weather pattern will
continue through much of the week with the focus of precipitation
being across southern Utah. A closed low similar to the one moving
through the area today will slide down the California coast and into
the Mojave Desert Tuesday/Wednesday. Another messy splitting storm
will follow on the heels of this one as it exits on Thursday.
Guidance is more split on the exact track and evolution of this late
week storm. By next weekend guidance is suggesting a return to more
zonal flow with moisture north of Utah/SW Wyoming.

The next closed low will once again slide down the California coast
before moving into the desert southwest and bringing a return of
valley rain and mountain snow to southern Utah. H7 temperatures will
be ~-5C with snow levels slightly lower than the current storm. Snow
levels will start ~8,000 feet before coming down close to ~6,000
feet. The track of this low will be more due east once it gets into
the southwest, rather than a northeasterly track that the current
storm has taken. This will limit precipitation to southern Utah with
lower chances of precipitation across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. QPF across southern Utah ranges from ~0.75-1.5" across the
mountains and ~0.25-0.75" across the valleys. This will translate to
mountain snow totals approaching 1+ feet of snow in the highest
terrain around Brian Head and Boulder mountain. If any precipitation
does fall across the north it will be light in nature with generally
<0.1" for the valleys and 0.1-0.2" in the mountains resulting in 1-
2" of snow near the peaks of the mountains. Temperatures will be
near normal across the north with temperatures running 5-10 degrees
across the south thanks to heavy cloud cover and widespread
precipitation.

This storm will be exiting on Thursday with another potential
splitting storm moving into the area. ~25% of guidance does bring
the storm into the Great Basin with some widespread light
precipitation across much of the area. The other 75% of guidance
keeps a track much further south, or even staying off the southern
California coast, that would limit any measurable precipitation to
the high terrain of southern Utah. This storm will likely change in
the run-to-run guidance given that it`s preceded by a cutoff.

Next weekend appears to be drier as the late week storm exits and
zonal flow settles into the area likely keeping moisture to the
north of Utah/SW Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...MVFR conditions with light or moderate rain
will prevail through 03Z. At least intermittent MVFR conditions
will continue after as light rain transitions to scattered rain
showers. Southeast winds, with gusts around 20 knots, will last
much of the TAF period. Precipitation will taper off around 12Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Conditions ranging from IFR
to MVFR will prevail throughout southwest Wyoming and northern
Utah with light to moderate rain and snow above 6500 feet.
Precipitation will be heaviest through 03Z, then become more
showery after. Precipitation will taper off around 12Z. Throughout
southern Utah, VFR conditions are likely with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms through 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Seaman
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity