Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
825 FXUS65 KSLC 181036 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 336 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Light, scattered showers continue across southern UT this morning with coverage increasing into and throughout the afternoon today. Light, scattered showers are expected across northern UT this afternoon as a closed low meanders to our south. && .DISCUSSION...Key Points: - Valley rainfall and mountain snowfall will continue ramping up through this morning and continue through Wednesday with light, showery precipitation persisting through Friday. - Light valley rain and mountain snow will develop across northern UT this afternoon and persist through Friday. - Another system dives south along the Pacific Coast by Friday and will remain further south than our recent systems. This has trended toward a drier forecast into the weekend. A closed mid-upper low currently located off the central CA coastline will continue diving south before eventually pushing inland across Southern CA into AZ. An upper ridge currently in place across the four corners will gradually retreat to the southeast making way for the upper low to continue progressing east with time, remaining well to our south. As such, multiple waves of precipitation in the form of valley rainfall and mountain snowfall will occur through today across southern UT, increasing in coverage throughout the morning into the afternoon. Moisture return across southern UT persists throughout the entirety of today with precipitation coverage continually increasing as a result, especially as more favorable ascent draws closer with the low progressing east. Similar to the last event for southern UT, 700mb temperatures ranging from -2C to -3C will generally yield higher snow levels which are expected to hover around 8000ft today. Later this evening into Wednesday morning, colder air aloft pushes in bringing 700mb temperatures down to as low as -4C to -5C, dropping snow levels to around 7500ft, perhaps as low as 7000ft late Wednesday evening. By this time, precipitation will transition to scattered and showery across southern UT. Currently, QPF totals range from around 0.25-1" with I-15 from Cedar City to St. George appearing as a favored corridor regarding rainfall. Higher amounts ranging from 1-2.25" are expected across the southern UT mountains with the higher end favored across the Pine Valley Mountains, Brian Head, and Boulder Mountain. Additionally, these three locations are where the highest snowfall accumulations are expected with a roughly 50-60% chance of exceeding 12". Following the departure of this current system, another looks to dive south along the CA coast into the Desert Southwest. However, this system will remain further south providing our forecast area with little forcing and moisture, thus resulting in less rainfall and accumulating high-elevation snow by Friday. Into the weekend, dry conditions are expected to develop as an upper ridge develops across much of the west. Looking further into next week, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the upper air pattern, though this forecaster is still holding onto a sliver of hope that northern UT can get in on some good snow sooner rather than later. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions today with ceilings remaining above 6000 feet AGL. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest between 17Z and 19Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...With another storm system bringing precipitation to southern Utah today, areas above 8,000 feet in that area are likely to see periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in snow beginning late morning. This will be most widespread during the afternoon hours, becoming confined to southwest Utah thereafter. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace with generally light and terrain driven winds. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for UTZ125. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity