


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
063 FXUS65 KSLC 152123 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 323 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A cool Pacific system will maintain unsettled conditions through Thursday, especially across northern areas. Drier and warming conditions then set in Friday through the weekend. Models continue to favor another system early next week, though a considerable amount of uncertainty is noted at this time. && Key Points: - A moist Pacific system will continue to impact the region through Thursday. Shower chances will remain high, along with potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Some modest high elevation snow accumulations are expected. - Colder air will settle into the region with the Pacific system. Locally freezing temperatures will be possible in some low elevation portions of west-central Utah, the western Uinta Basin, and Castle Country. - Around 80% of models continue to support some sort of system early next week. Considerable uncertainty is noted on strength/speed of the system, and in turn more specific details at this time. .DISCUSSION...A broad Pacific system is gradually moving into the region today. The swirl showing the broad extent of the low is evident both on satellite water vapor loops as well as visible satellite. Area radars, much more active today, also show the extent of the low well. While most activity has tended to be more showery in nature, there is enough instability for a few embedded thunderstorms as well. In addition to some moderately strong wind gusts generally in the 40-50 mph range and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, these have been reported to have produced some small pea sized hail. Coverage of activity tends to be highest in the vicinity of a loose baroclinic zone slowly progressing eastward and nearer the core of the low itself. Moving into the overnight hours the low and its associated cold front will continue to move eastward. Precipitation chances across southern Utah will wane, while areas further north will see elevated chances maintained as the core of the low gradually shifts overhead. Instability will decrease, but still may hold onto just enough for an embedded thunderstorm or two. Generally though anticipating showery activity along with gradually falling snow levels down to around 6500-7000 ft by Thursday morning. Additionally, after midnight the position of the low will become such that a period of more favorable west/northwest flow will allow for some lake enhanced showers at areas downstream. These locations would be most likely to see more appreciable water totals. While some showers will continue to linger during the day Thursday, chances will be on the decrease overall, with activity ceasing by Thursday night. In terms of water amounts for the event, forecast totals have not changed appreciably from overnight forecast. For southwest Utah amounts vary from location to location, but seeing reports indicating anywhere from 0.10" to around 0.75". For areas further north, totals will continue to creep upward as showers associated with the core of the low shift in. Forecast supports around another 0.20" to 0.60" or so of water with some locally higher amounts. Expecting the highest amounts to be where any lake enhanced showers can focus at areas east and southeast of the Great Salt Lake, in addition to the northern mountains. In terms of snow, totals have crept slightly upward with generally around a 60-80% chance of greater than 4 inches of snow in areas of the high Uintas and upper Cottonwoods, with locally higher amounts in favored locations. Aside from precipitation, the system will also result in cooler temperatures through Friday morning, around 7-15 degrees below normal for mid October. In some lower elevation locations where the growing season may still be ongoing, this could result in freezing conditions. Temperature forecast is more marginal Thursday morning with some uncertainty noted due to potential for lingering cloud cover. Friday morning looks to have temperatures cool slightly in comparison though and shows better potential for clearer skies and radiational cooling, thus higher freeze potential. Main places being monitored for potential freeze conditions would be areas of the western Uinta Basin, Castle Country, and portions of west-cenral Utah. High pressure still looks to build in Friday through the weekend. This will support drier conditions and a gradual warmup. Temperatures will peak Sunday near to a bit above normal, with fairly widespread highs in the 60s and 70s at lower elevations. Models still generally support an early week system next week, but as expected the forecast has shifted in comparison to yesterday. Around 80% of ensemble members do at least carry some sort of system, but of those its now around 50% with a moderately deep/cool system, with 30% carrying a weaker grazing type solution (remaining 20% stay drier and milder). As such, forecast temps have trended upward as have water and snow amounts. Given more solutions hinting at potential for a weaker or grazing type system, the better chances of seeing anything would be across the northern half of the area. Overall though, still early on and will want to continue to monitor for trends/shifts in the forecast. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Mostly dry conditions with isolated rain showers will last through 03Z. South winds will prevail, but showers would bring gusty, erratic winds. Rain from around 03-15Z will bring a range of VFR to MVFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable with more consistent rain. Rain will transition to scattered rain showers around 15Z. Scattered rain showers will last through the day. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated or scattered rain showers will transition to more consistent light or moderate rain for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah around 03Z. Conditions will range from VFR to MVFR with precipitation through around 15Z. Scattered rain showers will continue through the day. Conditions will be mostly clear and dry with light winds for southern Utah. && .FIRE WEATHER...A broad scale area of low pressure is gradually moving eastward into Utah, bringing widespread scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will decrease late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours for southern Utah, with chances persisting across northern Utah as the core of the low pressure system shifts in. This shower activity will then linger Thursday, with precipitation coverage gradually decreasing Thursday evening. With snow levels falling to around 6500 to 7000 feet by Thursday morning, some light high elevation snow accumulation is expected on the order of 2 to 6 inches for the event total. By Friday high pressure starts to become the dominant weather influence again. As such, will see drier and more stable conditions along with warming temperatures on through the weekend. Models then continue to show potential for another storm early next week, though uncertainty remains high. In general, 50% of models carry a moderate storm, and the other 50% carry a weaker grazing system to no storm at all. In any case, northern Utah would be more favored for any precipitation with this. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for UTZ114-120. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for UTZ114-115-120. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Wilson FIRE WEATHER...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity