063
FXUS65 KSLC 152123
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
323 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cool Pacific system will maintain unsettled conditions
through Thursday, especially across northern areas. Drier and
warming conditions then set in Friday through the weekend. Models
continue to favor another system early next week, though a
considerable amount of uncertainty is noted at this time.

&&

Key Points:

- A moist Pacific system will continue to impact the region through
Thursday. Shower chances will remain high, along with potential for
a few embedded thunderstorms. Some modest high elevation snow
accumulations are expected.

- Colder air will settle into the region with the Pacific system.
Locally freezing temperatures will be possible in some low elevation
portions of west-central Utah, the western Uinta Basin, and Castle
Country.

- Around 80% of models continue to support some sort of system early
next week. Considerable uncertainty is noted on strength/speed of
the system, and in turn more specific details at this time.

.DISCUSSION...A broad Pacific system is gradually moving into the
region today. The swirl showing the broad extent of the low is
evident both on satellite water vapor loops as well as visible
satellite. Area radars, much more active today, also show the
extent of the low well. While most activity has tended to be more
showery in nature, there is enough instability for a few embedded
thunderstorms as well. In addition to some moderately strong wind
gusts generally in the 40-50 mph range and periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall, these have been reported to have produced some
small pea sized hail. Coverage of activity tends to be highest in
the vicinity of a loose baroclinic zone slowly progressing
eastward and nearer the core of the low itself.

Moving into the overnight hours the low and its associated cold
front will continue to move eastward. Precipitation chances across
southern Utah will wane, while areas further north will see
elevated chances maintained as the core of the low gradually
shifts overhead. Instability will decrease, but still may hold
onto just enough for an embedded thunderstorm or two. Generally
though anticipating showery activity along with gradually falling
snow levels down to around 6500-7000 ft by Thursday morning.
Additionally, after midnight the position of the low will become
such that a period of more favorable west/northwest flow will
allow for some lake enhanced showers at areas downstream. These
locations would be most likely to see more appreciable water
totals. While some showers will continue to linger during the day
Thursday, chances will be on the decrease overall, with activity
ceasing by Thursday night.

In terms of water amounts for the event, forecast totals have not
changed appreciably from overnight forecast. For southwest Utah
amounts vary from location to location, but seeing reports
indicating anywhere from 0.10" to around 0.75". For areas further
north, totals will continue to creep upward as showers associated
with the core of the low shift in. Forecast supports around
another 0.20" to 0.60" or so of water with some locally higher
amounts. Expecting the highest amounts to be where any lake
enhanced showers can focus at areas east and southeast of the
Great Salt Lake, in addition to the northern mountains. In terms
of snow, totals have crept slightly upward with generally around a
60-80% chance of greater than 4 inches of snow in areas of the
high Uintas and upper Cottonwoods, with locally higher amounts in
favored locations.

Aside from precipitation, the system will also result in cooler
temperatures through Friday morning, around 7-15 degrees below
normal for mid October. In some lower elevation locations where
the growing season may still be ongoing, this could result in
freezing conditions. Temperature forecast is more marginal
Thursday morning with some uncertainty noted due to potential for
lingering cloud cover. Friday morning looks to have temperatures
cool slightly in comparison though and shows better potential for
clearer skies and radiational cooling, thus higher freeze
potential. Main places being monitored for potential freeze
conditions would be areas of the western Uinta Basin, Castle
Country, and portions of west-cenral Utah.

High pressure still looks to build in Friday through the weekend.
This will support drier conditions and a gradual warmup.
Temperatures will peak Sunday near to a bit above normal, with
fairly widespread highs in the 60s and 70s at lower elevations.

Models still generally support an early week system next week,
but as expected the forecast has shifted in comparison to
yesterday. Around 80% of ensemble members do at least carry some
sort of system, but of those its now around 50% with a moderately
deep/cool system, with 30% carrying a weaker grazing type solution
(remaining 20% stay drier and milder). As such, forecast temps
have trended upward as have water and snow amounts. Given more
solutions hinting at potential for a weaker or grazing type
system, the better chances of seeing anything would be across the
northern half of the area. Overall though, still early on and will
want to continue to monitor for trends/shifts in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Mostly dry conditions with isolated rain showers
will last through 03Z. South winds will prevail, but showers would
bring gusty, erratic winds. Rain from around 03-15Z will bring a
range of VFR to MVFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable
with more consistent rain. Rain will transition to scattered rain
showers around 15Z. Scattered rain showers will last through the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated or scattered rain
showers will transition to more consistent light or moderate rain
for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah around 03Z. Conditions will
range from VFR to MVFR with precipitation through around 15Z.
Scattered rain showers will continue through the day. Conditions
will be mostly clear and dry with light winds for southern Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A broad scale area of low pressure is gradually moving
eastward into Utah, bringing widespread scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will decrease
late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours for southern Utah,
with chances persisting across northern Utah as the core of the
low pressure system shifts in. This shower activity will then
linger Thursday, with precipitation coverage gradually decreasing
Thursday evening. With snow levels falling to around 6500 to 7000
feet by Thursday morning, some light high elevation snow
accumulation is expected on the order of 2 to 6 inches for the
event total. By Friday high pressure starts to become the dominant
weather influence again. As such, will see drier and more stable
conditions along with warming temperatures on through the weekend.
Models then continue to show potential for another storm early
next week, though uncertainty remains high. In general, 50%
of models carry a moderate storm, and the other 50% carry a
weaker grazing system to no storm at all. In any case, northern
Utah would be more favored for any precipitation with this.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for
     UTZ114-120.

     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     UTZ114-115-120.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

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