Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
580 FXUS65 KSLC 262224 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 324 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday afternoon with an active period following. This weekend, a system looks to impact the area with colder temperatures expected to develop with a chance of precipitation. Active weather is expected to continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Key Points: - Dry, mild conditions persist through Friday afternoon. - Cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation return late Friday night through Sunday featuring high elevation snow and perhaps a shot at light valley accumulations primarily across northern UT. - Following this weekends system, an active upper level pattern looks to continue through at least mid-week. Upper ridge looks to continue establishing itself across the U.S. Southwest today through early Friday afternoon keeping conditions dry and mild. Upper level moisture is expected to continue riding along the northern axis of the aforementioned ridge and continue to provide cloud cover across the majority of the CWA over the next few days with more pronounced cloud cover expected across across northern UT and southwest WY. While a "cool" airmass remains in place, persistent cloud cover should limit radiational cooling keeping temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above average through Friday. Come Saturday, an upper level trough is forecast to dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest, clearing through the forecast area by Sunday evening. A much colder airmass is forecast to accompany this serving to bring temperatures to near seasonal normals on Saturday and Sunday for valley locations. For higher elevation locations, colder temperatures aloft will result in temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal with this system. Initially, mentionable chances for precipitation will remain confined to higher elevation locations on Saturday as modest moisture begins to arrive to the area. Forcing from this system will remain well to our northwest through Saturday keeping precipitation locked into a terrain driven regime. Throughout all of Saturday, snow levels are expected to drop to around 4000ft across northern UT and southwest WY, perhaps lower across the Cache Valley and Bear River Range where levels as low as 3500ft appear possible at this time. As such, showers that occur across the higher terrain of northern UT and southwest WY are expected to see light, scattered snow showers Saturday afternoon, though accumulations are expected to be limited. Regarding Sunday, uncertainty continues regarding the overall evolution of the upper trough with respect to how much it will really deepen as it traverses the area. Ensemble clusters reflect this as it remains generally a 50/50 split with roughly half of all guidance indicating an open wave and the other half representing a deeper, more compact trough traversing the area on Sunday. An open wave would yield weaker ascent across the forecast area likely resulting in less storm coverage and weaker precipitation rates from the showers that do form. The opposite is true with the deeper, more compact trough solution where stronger ascent would yield increasing storm coverage with higher precipitation rates. Additionally, this uncertainty is reflected well in DESI with a 25th-75th percentile spread for snowfall ranging from 0" to 9" across the Cottonwoods and 0" to 6" across the Bear River Range. Lastly, given 700mb temperatures ranging from -7C to -10C across northern UT and the lower snow levels on Sunday, valley accumulations wouldn`t be entirely out of the question early Sunday morning across northern UT, though any accumulations are expected to be light at this time. To sum this up, this remains quite a difficult forecast to iron out at this time and continues to have "bust" potential. This forecaster would like to remain optimistic at this time. As we enter the workweek, an upper air pattern for favorable storm tracks appears to develop continually ushering in cold air aloft via northwest flow. Our next shot for precipitation develops late Monday evening through Wednesday at the latest as another trough is forecast to dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest. Uncertainty also remains high with this system as the strength of the trough and timing is questionable, similar to this weekends system. Details are expected to be ironed out more over the coming days. Following this system, the pattern appears to remain favorable for more storms to follow in the extended. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with cigs above 6000 feet AGL. Light northerly winds are expected to shift to the south between 02Z and 04Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected throughout the airspace through the evening, though cigs over northern Utah will cause some mountain top obscurations into the evening. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven into the overnight hours. && && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity