Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
517 FXUS65 KSLC 011924 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 124 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend is expected across the region through mid-week. Several cold fronts will impact at least northern Utah Thursday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Another seasonably warm day across the region continues early this afternoon. The upper level ridge continues to shift eastward into the Great Basin...while an upper level low sits off the southern California Coast. A general warming trend is expected through at least Wednesday. As the ridge shifts east over the Desert Southwest, an active northern stream will flatten the northern extent of the ridge through early next week. The upper level low will gradually eject and weaken across Utah Monday. This upper level low will primarily increase southwesterly flow across the region...rather than bringing any chance of precipitation. As mentioned earlier, the active northern stream will remain sufficiently far north to keep any real chance of precipitation away from Utah through at least Thursday...but a dry cold front will cross northern Utah associated with a passing shortwave trough Tuesday. This will temporarily halt the warming trend across northern Utah, though temperatures will rebound again Wednesday. In the wake of this dry cold front, the upper level ridge will amplify once more Wednesday. While this will bring warmer temperatures, the unfortunate side effect will be a weaker system Thursday into Friday, with less threat of mountain snow. This next system will bring a cold front into northern Utah Thursday morning, with an associated band of precipitation near/behind the front into late Thursday evening. The majority of ensemble members now support a quick, weak band of precipitation associated with this front. The wetter, stronger system is now only favored by around 15% of ensemble members which make up 50% of the GEFS members and 0% of members of the two other main ensemble systems. While this solution obviously exists among the ensemble members, it is an unlikely outcome. This is further bolstered by guidance now supporting an amplified ridge on Wednesday. Current 25 to 75th percentile ranges for precipitation are lower than the last few runs, around trace/0 to 0.15" for the Cottonwoods, trace/0 to 0.35" for the Bear River Range by Thursday night. This would be up to 3 inches or so for the Cottonwoods, maybe up to 5 inches for the Bear River Range. Given these low ranges, no headlines are anticipated. Another shortwave trough will pass to the north Friday into Saturday, bringing another round of light precipitation to Utah, mainly Utah County and north. The majority of ensemble members support another 0.05 to 0.15" (highest near the Utah/Idaho border). Around 15% of ensemble members support a deeper solution, with up to 0.30" across the northern mountains. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the overnight hours with some high clouds persisting into the early evening. Light winds are expected to shift to the northwest by 22Z before returning to the south between 03Z and 04Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see light and diurnally driven winds with VFR conditions through the overnight hours Some high clouds will persist into the early evening before clearing out. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity