Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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939 FXUS01 KWBC 040735 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 234 AM EST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Dec 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 ...Active winter weather pattern continues with snow impacting the Great Lakes, interior Northeast, and Pacific Northwest/Rockies the next couple of days... ...Moderate to heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast with isolated flash flooding possible; some wintry precipitation expected north into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Friday... ...Surge of arctic air forecast to challenge low temperature records across the Midwest Thursday and the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England Friday... An active winter-like pattern continues across the country with systems bringing snow to multiple places over the next couple of days. First, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue for portions of the Great Lakes following the passage of one clipper-like system this morning and as another quickly approaches the region on Friday. Some moderate snow accumulations will focus downwind of the Upper Great Lakes and Lake Ontario. Light snow showers will also be possible across the northern Plains today as this incoming second system passes through. Meanwhile, the departing clipper system and trailing cold front is expected to lead to a potentially impactful snow squall event today over the interior Northeast. These intense, quick bursts of heavy snow accompanied by gusty surface winds can bring sudden white-out conditions, which is particularly dangerous to those driving. To the west, a series of upper-waves dropping southward over the western U.S. will bring significant snowfall to the Cascades and ranges of the northern Rockies today, spreading into the central Rockies Friday. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for snowfall totals generally between 8-14", with higher amounts upwards of 2-3` possible for the higher mountain peaks. The mountain valleys will see between 3-6". While accumulations should mainly remain limited to the mountains, a wintry mix is expected for adjacent areas of the northern/central Great Basin and northern High Plains, with rain for the Pacific Northwest. Moist southerly flow ahead of an upper-wave approaching the southern Plains/western Gulf has led to an expanding area of precipiation across the region this morning. Thunderstorms will focus in vicinity of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary along the western to central Gulf Coast with more moderate showers further inland. The system will progress eastward into the Southeast overnight Thursday and into the day Friday, with thunderstorm chances lingering to the west along the Gulf Coast. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with an isolated threat for flash flooding. Wintry precipiation is expected where colder air in place further to the north, first over portions of the southern Plains this morning/afternoon, and then eastward from the Ohio Valley into the central/southern Appalachians and North Carolina/southern Mid-Atlantic overnight Thursday and into the day Friday. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for potential snow accumulations of 1-2" as well as a light glazing of ice. Conditions remain well below average across much of the eastern and central U.S. as this winter-like pattern remains in place. Yet another cold front passage will bring some brutally cold low temperatures to portions of the Midwest this morning, and then into the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England Friday morning. Low temperatures in the negative single digits and teens for the Midwest and single digits and teens for the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England may challenge several daily record low temperatures. Forecast highs the next couple days will vary depending on the timing of frontal passages, but generally range in the teens to 20s for the Midwest, the 20s and 30s for New England, the 30s and 40s for the central/southern Plains east through the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and the 40s and 50s for Texas to the Southeast. The High Plains will see a return to average if not a bit above average conditions with downsloping winds off the Rockies in place, with highs into the 30s and 40s north and 50s and 60s south. Conditions will also remain around or above average for most of the West, with 40s for the interior, 50s and 60s along the West Coast, and 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest. The Four Corners region will see some locally cooler temperatures with highs in the 30s and 40s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$