658
FXUS01 KWBC 180755
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest/southeastern California on Tuesday...

...Light snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes on Tuesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the southern Utah
Mountains and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

A front over Southeastern California will move eastward to the
Southern Rockies by Thursday. The system will produce heavy rain
with embedded thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and
the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest/southeastern California through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars
being the most vulnerable. In addition, moderate to heavy snow
will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Tuesday
and the southern Utah Mountains on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Furthermore, the system will produce rain with embedded
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High
Plains on Wednesday into Thursday.

Moreover, a weak front over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region
before dissipating on Wednesday. The storm will produce rain and
snow at the highest elevations over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and the Northern Intermountain Region on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning.

Meanwhile, low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will
advance eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday. Light
snow will develop along the northern edge of the precipitation
shield over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes,
extending into parts of the Ohio Valley, on Tuesday. Rain and a
few embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday, tapering off by Wednesday. In addition, rain
will move into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday afternoon, continuing into Wednesday morning before
tapering off.

A second area of low pressure will develop along the western edge
of the front over the Southern Plains on Wednesday morning. The
low will move northeastward to the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the boundary over the Southern Plains on Wednesday,
expanding into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by
Thursday.

On Wednesday afternoon, a front over South-Central Canada will
move into the Upper Mississippi Valley, producing light rain over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Additionally, on Wednesday, another front will approach the West
Coast, producing light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and Northern California by Wednesday afternoon and expanding into
parts of Southern California by early Thursday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$