459
FXUS01 KWBC 131833
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 00Z Sun Nov 16 2025

...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy
rainfall, heavy mountain snow and strong winds to portions of
California through Saturday...

...Above average temperatures across the West and Central U.S....

...Developing low pressure bringing rain and thunderstorms through
the Great Lakes Saturday...


A strong upper-low has developed along the West Coast and will
continue to amplify today, ushering in enhanced moisture through
an Atmospheric River by Thursday evening starting across
Northwestern California but quickly effecting Central California
Coastal regions overnight Friday morning.  A Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) resulting in possible flooding
conditions is in place for the San Francisco Bay area and
downstream into the foothills of the northern and central Sierra
Nevada range.  As the plume of moisture intersects the mid to
upper slopes of the Sierra Nevada (above 8,000 feet) heavy snow is
expected accompanied by high winds gusting up to 40 mph.  Snow
totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast with 12-18 inches possible
for the highest peaks along the central range through Friday.  The
surface cyclone and associated cold front will press eastward and
quickly weaken through Friday into Saturday, shifting the
Atmospheric River southward toward Cape Conception and affecting
the Transverse Range and so Slight Risk is in place there.
However, the upper-level pattern will stall but also be
reinforced, broadening southerly moist flow across much of
Southern California late Saturday into Sunday increasing regional
coverage of high rainfall potential.  As such, a broad Slight Risk
expanding much of Southern California including the Coastal
Ranges, southern Sierra Nevada, and Inland Empire toward the
Colorado River Basin for late Saturday into Sunday highlighting
the potential for scattered flash flooding conditions.


Elsewhere, strong upper-level ridging dominates the Intermountain
West through the Plains and now edging into the Midwest and East
Coast.   Highs in the 60s and 70s and 15-30 degrees above normal
will shift from the Northern High Plains today, into the northern
Plains Friday and across the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes by
Saturday, with a few record temperatures possible.  Warm
temperatures into the upper 80s and perhaps low 90s will setup for
much of the 3 day period.  An upper-level northern stream wave
will start to deepen across central Canada tapping some cooler
temperatures out of the Canadian Territories and slide
southeastward toward the Great Lakes.  A strong surface low will
lead this charge across Canada and though cold air only brings
temperatures back to normal into the 30-40s (for highs) across the
northern Plains, the contrast with warm and increasingly moist air
off the Gulf through the Mississippi Valley will increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms downstream later Saturday
afternoon across the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes.  As
such, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for some isolated severe weather potential for late Saturday
into Sunday for eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and northern
West Virginia.

Gallina

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$