


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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651 FXUS01 KWBC 101957 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 11 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 13 2025 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk in the Southwest and Four Corners Region continues into this weekend as tropical moisture flows in from the Pacific... ...Coastal storm to bring heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf, dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds up much of the East Coast this weekend... ...Storm system to bring lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow, heavy at times, to the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West... Widespread, heavy rain producing thunderstorms are forecast to continue throughout the Southwest and Four Corners region as a deep upper-trough slowly passes eastward over the western U.S. and moisture associated with both Priscilla and Raymond flows in from the Pacific. This anomalously high moisture will contribute to locally heavy downpours with rain rates possibly reaching 1-2" at times bringing a potentially significant flash flood risk. For today (Friday), Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) cover portions of southern Utah and north-central Arizona where the most confidence exists for scattered to widespread instances of flash flooding. Slight Risks (level 2/4) are in place throughout much of the rest of the Southwest/Four Corners region today and tomorrow, where more scattered flash flooding will be possible. Rainfall will focus on southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico on Sunday, with a continued risk of scattered flash flooding. This is especially true for more vulnerable terrain such as slot canyons and burn scars, as well as for urban areas. Unfortunately, storms, heavy rainfall, and the flash flood risk look to linger into early next week. Further to the north, this upper-trough and associated surface frontal system will bring widespread precipitation elsewhere across much of the Pacific Northwest today and into the Intermountain West this weekend. Rain is expected for lower elevations, with locally heavy rainfall possible particularly throughout portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains on Saturday, and some isolated flash flooding is possible. In addition, snow, heavy at times, is likely for higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Rockies, especially on Saturday. Winter weather-related Warnings and Advisories are in place for portions of the northern Rockies as totals of 3-6", locally as much as 12-15", will be possible. Some of the mountain valleys may see some snow mix in Saturday night into Sunday, and while accumulations are expected to remain minor, caution is advised throughout the region given this is the first snow of the season for many locations. Meanwhile, a strong coastal low expected to develop in the Atlantic off the coast of the Southeast will bring significant impacts to much of the East Coast through this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall is expected from coastal Florida to the Carolinas today, continuing through the Carolinas on Saturday, and stretching into the coastal Mid-Atlantic to southern New England on Sunday. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect for coastal North Carolina Saturday and the Mid-Atlantic to portions of southern New England Sunday as scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible, with more isolated instances elsewhere through the weekend. Coastal flood-related advisories stretch almost the length of the East Coast, with a particular concern for portions of the Mid-Atlantic where the combination of strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may lead to major coastal flooding. This would flood roadways and potentially affect some homes and businesses near the waterfront. High surf and rip currents are also expected along many East Coast beaches, and will likely lead to areas of beach erosion. There is also an increasing threat of significant wind gusts, in excess of 55 mph, especially along coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic, and scattered power outages will be possible. Elsewhere, a couple upper-waves will bring some shower chances to the Great Lakes region through this evening, and to portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this weekend. Temperature-wise, the East Coast will see highs around to possibly just below average following a frontal passage and with cloud cover/precipitation throughout much of the region associated with the coastal low. Highs will generally be in the 60s from the Mid-Atlantic north, and into the 70s from the Carolinas south. An upper-ridge will lead to widespread, well above average conditions across much of the Plains and into the Midwest, with highs into the 60s for the Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes, the 70s across the northern Plains and into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, 80s in the central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and 80s to low 90s for the southern Plains/Texas. The upper-trough over the west will bring much cooler, below average temperatures, with widespread 50s expected throughout the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and northern California, and 70s to 80s for southern California into the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$