308
FXUS01 KWBC 150831
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 - 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024

...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
expected to impact various locations in the northern and central
U.S. through the next couple of days...

...Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies
beginning on Monday...

...A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to reach the central
Gulf Coast on Monday...

...A heat wave will quickly spread from the northern Plains this
weekend into the Great Lakes on Monday...

As a series of fronts pushes the showers and storms off the East
Coast early this morning, an active and changeable weather pattern
will establish across the Pacific Northwest.  The unseasonably
cold and blustery conditions across this region will be in stark
contrast with the heat that is forecast to quickly spread from the
northern Plains this weekend, reaching into the Great Lakes on
Monday.  Areas in between these temperature extremes will be under
an active storm track where low pressure systems will develop and
move through in quick succession. The first round of showers and
storms associated with a leading system is forecast to spark
thunderstorm activity from the central Plains early this morning
to the upper Midwest by tonight.  Multiple rounds of heavy rain
associated with these storms could lead to areas of flash flooding
between eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, a
trailing and stronger low pressure system is forecast to intensify
and move quickly across the northern Plains tonight.  This system
will help produce strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of
eastern Montana into North and South Dakota.  Unseasonably cold
and windy weather will continue into Sunday and Monday across the
Northwest as yet another cold upper trough reaches the Pacific
Northwest.  This system will reinforce the unseasonably cold and
windy conditions across the region on Monday along with wet snow
moving into the northern Rockies, therefore prompting the issuance
of Winter Storm Watches.  Meanwhile, an area of rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop and expand across the north
Plains toward the upper Midwest where a stationary front
strengthens ahead of a developing low pressure system over the
central High Plains.

Across the Florida Peninsula, the threat of heavy rain continues
to diminish as the main tropical moisture plume is forecast to
swing farther west and head toward the central Gulf Coast during
the next couple of days.  Nevertheless, some thunderstorms that
manage to develop over southern Florida could result in local
flooding issues given the already saturated soil.  By Monday
morning, heavy rain associated with the tropical moisture plume
could begin impacting the central Gulf Coast region.  In contrast,
a refreshingly dry airmass behind a cold front should lead to
beautiful weather this Father`s Day weekend throughout the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley.

The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering
heat impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and
Southeast. Highs are forecast to reach the triple digits
throughout much of the Desert Southwest, with upper 90s stretching
from the Southeast to parts of the Southern Plains. Above average
temperatures are also forecast across the central Great Basin and
northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well below average
temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday, an
upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the
Eastern U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest,
Central Plains, and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach
the upper 90s, with maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When
combined with warm overnight lows, major heat risk could affect
anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Be
sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat safety!

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$