452
FXUS01 KWBC 011850
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 00Z Thu Dec 04 2025

...Monday will bring a messy wintry mix across the
Ozarks/Mid-South into the Ohio Valley with light to moderate
snowfall for portions of the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...

...First winter storm of the season expected for New England and
the inland Mid-Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday with heavy snow
and impactful icing...

...Chilly temperatures continue across much of the eastern and
central U.S. in a winter-like pattern...


Snow showers continue over parts of the Central Plains and west of
the Mississippi Valley as the upper-level trough sits over central
CONUS. The upper-wave moves eastward into the Mississippi Valley
and the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning and will interact with
colder air, which will bring a wintry mix across portions of the
Upper Midwest and will eventually transition to accumulating snow
across eastern portions of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.
Lake-effect will also support on and off snow development over the
next few days. Snow amounts are expected to remain light to
moderate (~2-4"), with possible locally higher totals. Further
south, the upper-wave will continue to push the surface low over
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and will pool moisture from a
shortwave over the Gulf, bringing chances for precipitation over
portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast tonight, with the highest
precipiation amount over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Tennessee Valley. Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) for Severe Thunderstorms over portions of Alabama
tonight and the Florida Panhandle through Tuesday. Some moderate
to locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with an isolated risk
for flash flooding as the Weather Prediction Center has portions
of the Gulf Coast and Deep South under a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
for Excessive Rainfall. While the system continues to move
northeastward Tuesday, expect possible freezing rain and icy
conditions over central/southern Appalachians, that can make
traveling hazardous, as well as, possible showers and
thunderstorms along the East Coast.

As the low continues to deepens over New England and the mid-level
moisture interact with the colder air north of the system, much of
New England and the Mid-Atlantic will experience enhanced winter
precipitation and possible gusty winds, especially inland from the
coast, bringing the first impactful winter storm of the season.
Although uncertainty remains with respect to specific totals, the
threat for significant snow accumulations across the interior is
rising, with more than 6" possible north and west of the I-95
corridor.

Over into the west, another progressive upper level trough will
approach the coastline, bringing another rough of precipiation
over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies by this evening,
bringing lower elevation/coastal rain and inland/higher elevation
snow. Snow showers will spread southward over the Great
Basin/central Rockies by Tuesday morning. Some moderate snow
accumulations are expected but should be limited to the regional
mountain ranges. Just to the northeast, an additional quick moving
clipper-like system will bring some light snow showers to the
northern Plains Tuesday, and some more moderate snowfall across
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night.

As the upper-wave continues to move through CONUS, temperatures
will continue to trend well-below average over eastern and central
U.S. as this winter-like pattern continues, featuring broad,
stagnant upper-toughing and repeated cold frontal passages.
Forecast highs the next couple of days generally range from the
teens and 20s across the northern Plains/Midwest; the 30s and 40s
for the central Plains, Ohio valley, and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic;
and the 40s and 50s from Texas into the Southeast. Areas along the
Gulf Coast Monday and into the southeast Atlantic Tuesday south of
the frontal boundary will see much warmer highs into the 60s.
Downsloping winds off the Rockies will also bring a warm up to the
High Plains on Tuesday as temperatures rise into the 30s/40s north
and 50s/60s south. Conditions remain closer to average across the
West, with highs in the 40s for the interior, 50s and 60s along
the West Coast, and 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.

Oudit/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$