789
FXUS66 KSTO 182011
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1211 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Drier conditions return today into Wednesday morning.
 - Our next system [Wednesday PM - Friday AM] will bring mountain
   snow and light to moderate rain showers creating minor travel
   impacts
 - Dry weather returns Friday late morning through the weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

...Today - Wednesday AM...
Dry and mild conditions today with scattered clouds over the
mountains and portions of the northern San Joaquin areas. 15-30
percent chance of lowered visibilities in the morning, mainly over
the northern San Joaquin areas and Valley foothills. Highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s today and Wednesday.

...Wednesday Evening - Friday...
The trough is currently forecast to bring renewed rain and
mountain snow chances late Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
Latest NBM runs have decreased total rain and snow for our region
slightly, but still within the same impact range as yesterday`s
package.

NBM probabilities show a 30-50% chance of 3 inches of snow or
more over the Sierra above 6000 feet and 40-70% chance of 0.25"
of rain of more for the Valley north of I-80 so even amidst the
uncertainty the system looks to be on the lower range of impacts.
Forecasted Rain amounts are 0.10-0.50", up to an inch over the
mountains with the wettest period Wednesday night to Thursday
morning. 2-5" of snow expected with highest amounts south of Hwy.
50. Rain and snow should taper off Thursday evening into Friday
morning as dry weather returns.

You can always find the latest road conditions at
quickmap.dot.ca.gov

...Next Weekend - Early Next Week...
Drier weather overtakes the area by Friday midday, as upper level
ridging is progged to develop and somewhat strengthen in the
eastern Pacific. Weak troughing to the north in/near the Gulf of
Alaska may help keep our heights flat, with seasonable high
temperatures and mainly dry weather in the forecast through the
weekend. Monday brings an outside chance of weak showers over the
Sierra and N. Sac Valley but chances remain low and impacts look
minimal.

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions outside of localized MVFR conditions over
the northern San Joaquin Valley from mist and cloud cover around
2000-5000 feet until 06z Wed. Then 15-30% chance for MVFR to IFR
conditions from mist and low stratus across the foothills,
southern Sac. Valley, and northern San Joaquin from 12z Wed into
18z Wed and as low as LIFR conditions at KMOD from fog and mist
from 10z to 15z Wed. Lastly, broken to overcast skies expected at
KRDD and KRBL around 1500 to 3000 feet from 07z Wed into 18z Wed.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$