504
FXUS62 KTAE 162311
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
711 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Low rain chances (20-30%) are forecast for Sunday as a cold
   front moves through the area. Little to no significant impacts
   are anticipated.

 - Drought continues to worsen across the area with little
   beneficial rain on the horizon. The continued dry conditions
   and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire
   concerns through next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure continues to dominate our forecast through Saturday
with warm days and comfortable nights continuing. A surge of drier
air moves in from the east and northeast tomorrow afternoon, which
will help reinforce our tranquil weather. Highs will continue to
be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. PWATs increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches,
but the main limiting factor will be lift. The parent trough will
be well to our north over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which
limits support for showers and storms. What most likely will
happen is a band of showers and storms along or just ahead of the
front will weaken as it moves into our area. Rain chances are
highest over our Central Time Zone counties at 30-40%, decreasing
to the east. An isolated storm or two is possible, though
instability is rather limited with deep layer shear topping out at
25-30 kt.

Drier air moves in behind the front heading into Monday. Dew
points will drop into the 40s and 50s on Monday with a 20-40%
chance that dew points will fall below 40. Another cold front will
move through on Tuesday with moisture being even more scant. Yet
another surge of cooler, drier air will move into the area to
round out next week. Highs will still be in the low to mid 80s
through Tuesday, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Behind the
front, highs will drop into the 70s on Wednesday with lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Much like last night, MVFR vsbys are possible from 08-13Z at VLD
with clear skies and light to calm winds. A lower probability of
occurrence at TLH warrants a tempo for MVFR vsbys from 10-13Z.
The rest of the TAF sites will remain VFR through the overnight.
VFR is expected at all TAF sites after 13Z with light east to
southeast winds.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through
Saturday with high pressure to our north. In this regime,
nocturnal easterly surges could bring some localized cautionary
conditions to our far offshore waters. Winds turn more
southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Only widely scattered showers and an isolated storm
are expected with the front Sunday. A brief bout of northerly to
northeasterly moderate breezes is expected Monday before clocking
around out of the east to southeast again Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with east to
southeast transport winds around 5-10 mph. Dispersions will
generally be good, though some high dispersions are possible in
the Alabama zones Saturday where mixing heights will be highest.
A cold front moves into and through the area Sunday with a low
chance (10- 30%) of a wetting rain. Otherwise, dispersions
increase Sunday with southwesterly transport winds of 10-20 mph.
Drier air follows in its wake.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Sunday`s cold front doesn`t look as promising for widespread
beneficial rain, unfortunately. In fact, the 90th percentile is
only a quarter to half an inch, and most likely, rain totals will
be less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is expected beyond then
through the end of the forecast period.

This dry weather continues to spell bad news for drought concerns.
The latest US Drought Monitor now shows expanding extreme drought
across parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into south
Georgia. For more information on the local drought conditions,
please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  84  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        60  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        58  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  79  68  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young