


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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504 FXUS62 KTAE 162311 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 711 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low rain chances (20-30%) are forecast for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Little to no significant impacts are anticipated. - Drought continues to worsen across the area with little beneficial rain on the horizon. The continued dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure continues to dominate our forecast through Saturday with warm days and comfortable nights continuing. A surge of drier air moves in from the east and northeast tomorrow afternoon, which will help reinforce our tranquil weather. Highs will continue to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. PWATs increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches, but the main limiting factor will be lift. The parent trough will be well to our north over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which limits support for showers and storms. What most likely will happen is a band of showers and storms along or just ahead of the front will weaken as it moves into our area. Rain chances are highest over our Central Time Zone counties at 30-40%, decreasing to the east. An isolated storm or two is possible, though instability is rather limited with deep layer shear topping out at 25-30 kt. Drier air moves in behind the front heading into Monday. Dew points will drop into the 40s and 50s on Monday with a 20-40% chance that dew points will fall below 40. Another cold front will move through on Tuesday with moisture being even more scant. Yet another surge of cooler, drier air will move into the area to round out next week. Highs will still be in the low to mid 80s through Tuesday, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Behind the front, highs will drop into the 70s on Wednesday with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Much like last night, MVFR vsbys are possible from 08-13Z at VLD with clear skies and light to calm winds. A lower probability of occurrence at TLH warrants a tempo for MVFR vsbys from 10-13Z. The rest of the TAF sites will remain VFR through the overnight. VFR is expected at all TAF sites after 13Z with light east to southeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through Saturday with high pressure to our north. In this regime, nocturnal easterly surges could bring some localized cautionary conditions to our far offshore waters. Winds turn more southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Only widely scattered showers and an isolated storm are expected with the front Sunday. A brief bout of northerly to northeasterly moderate breezes is expected Monday before clocking around out of the east to southeast again Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with east to southeast transport winds around 5-10 mph. Dispersions will generally be good, though some high dispersions are possible in the Alabama zones Saturday where mixing heights will be highest. A cold front moves into and through the area Sunday with a low chance (10- 30%) of a wetting rain. Otherwise, dispersions increase Sunday with southwesterly transport winds of 10-20 mph. Drier air follows in its wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Sunday`s cold front doesn`t look as promising for widespread beneficial rain, unfortunately. In fact, the 90th percentile is only a quarter to half an inch, and most likely, rain totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is expected beyond then through the end of the forecast period. This dry weather continues to spell bad news for drought concerns. The latest US Drought Monitor now shows expanding extreme drought across parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into south Georgia. For more information on the local drought conditions, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 66 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 58 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 60 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 79 68 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young