672
FXUS62 KTAE 231806
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
106 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- There is a medium to high chance (50-70%) of patchy to areas of dense
  fog Monday morning, especially across the Florida Big Bend.

- Rain chances for Wednesday remain between 40-60%, with the
  highest chances across Southeast Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle before tapering the more east you go.

- Fire Weather concerns increase Thanksgiving Day and Friday with
  low relative humidity and ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fog season continues with another round of fog anticipated tonight,
especially across the Florida Big Bend and along Apalachee Bay. High
pressure in control at the surface and aloft will keep the area dry
and warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday afternoon
after starting off the day in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds turn more southerly Tuesday, pushing surface moisture back
into the area. This should lead to another round of fog Monday night
into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold
front. A few showers are expected across our far western counties
Tuesday thanks to Warm Air Advection (WAA) and a bit of a Low-Level
Jet (LLJ) at 850mb. Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually shift
east Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best lift remains well
northwest and north of the area and will be pulling away Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As a result, the best chance for rain will be
along and west of a line from Panama City, FL to Albany, GA with
rain chances tapering to less than 20 percent across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend. As mentioned in the previous discussions, we`ll be
underneath the right entrance region of an H5 jet and there will be
25-30 knots of Bulk Shear. However, the better instability and
synoptic forcing will be moving well north of the area, so there`s
not much overlap. Mesoscale diurnal instability may be able to
overcome some of these limiting factors, if we see mostly clear
skies on Wednesday. However, if we`re under extensive cloud cover,
or dense fog that lasts well into the late morning hours, then our
chances of seeing storms would be very low.

A cooler and drier airmass arrives following the front Wednesday
night into Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to remain in the 60s
Thanksgiving Day, Friday, and Saturday with overnight lows in the
30s Friday and Saturday mornings. A few locations may flirt with
freezing Friday and/or Saturday morning in our traditionally cooler
spots, but no (Hard) Freeze products appear necessary at this time.
A bit of wind Thursday night into Friday morning will create Wind
Chill values, or feels-like temperatures, near 30.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Morning fog has dissipated, and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for the remainder of the day with a few fair weather cumulus
clouds. An additional round of fog is expected early Monday morning
across the Florida big bend with TLH the most likely terminal to be
impacted. VLD is also expected to see some fog and low ceilings. ECP
is expected to be along the edge of the fog. Farther north, ABY and
DHN are expected to remain VFR with a drier airmass in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas of dense fog remain a concern for the nearshore waters from
Keaton Beach to the Suwannee River through Monday morning.
Otherwise, easterly winds develop Monday before turning southerly
ahead a cold front Monday night into Tuesday. A few showers and
storms are possible as the front swings through Wednesday. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds develop behind the cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday and may near Advisory levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure over the area keeps us dry again Monday. Southerly
flow ahead of an advancing cold front develops Tuesday. A few
showers are forecast Tuesday afternoon for the western Florida
Panhandle and western portions of southeastern Alabama before
spreading eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the cold
front. Chances for a wetting rain are medium to high (50-70 percent)
for a line along and west of Panama City, FL to Albany, GA and low
to medium (10-50 percent) east of that line with lower chances the
more south and east you go. Much drier air filters in behind the
front for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, sending MinRH values to
between 20-30 percent away from the immediate coast. There is a low
(10 percent) chance of winds exceeding 15 mph Thursday, so there is
the potential for Critical Fire Weather conditions on Thanksgiving;
of course, that will largely depend on how much rain there is
Tuesday night into Wednesday and where it falls.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Rain remains in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a
cold front. The axis for the heaviest rain should remain northwest
of our area, but those along and west of a line from Panama City, FL
to Albany, GA stand the best chance (50-70 percent) at seeing
rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25". Some reasonable high-end
chances (or 10 percent change of occurring) are around 1.0" to 1.5".
Rainfall totals east of that line are generally forecast to be less
than 0.10".

While flooding is not anticipated with those rainfall amounts, some
ponding or localized street flooding may occur due to clogged drains
from all the leaves on the ground.

As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   57  80  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  78  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        53  80  59  81 /   0   0  20  10
Albany        54  80  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      55  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  73  65  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730-755-
     765.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese