600
FXUS62 KTAE 012016
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
416 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

 - The next chance for rain will come from Sunday afternoon
   through Monday morning. Where rain occurs, it will generally be
   less than one-quarter inch. This will offer no improvement to
   the ongoing drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A shortwave looks to move across the southeast tomorrow on its way
towards the Atlantic. The surface low associated with this feature
looks to stay far offshore leading to minimal moisture return for
the region. Thus, nearly no instability across the region as the
shortwave moves through. Rain chances are generally between 20-30%
as this feature moves through late Sunday into Monday morning.
However, high-res models aren`t particularly excited for any precip
coming out of this as we remain mostly stable. Regardless, should
the region see any precip, it`d likely be scattered to isolated near
the center of the upper level low, across our SE Alabama and SW
Georgia counties.

Tuesday through Friday will be dry and benign as surface high
pressure once again sits over the region.

Temps look to gradually warm up throughout the week with daytime
highs on Sunday and Monday in the upper 60s to low 70s, increasing
into the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will
generally remain in the 40s all week for areas away from the coast.
Coastal areas will see lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

On Sunday, a wave of low pressure will move east across the Gulf
along a stalled frontal boundary. Once low pressure ejects east
into the Atlantic on Sunday night, fresh to strong northerly
breezes will fill in across the Northeast Gulf. High pressure over
the Mid-South region on Monday will move to the southern
Appalachians on Tuesday, with winds clocking around northeasterly.
The high center will settle south directly across the waters on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A cool and dry air mass will persist across the districts through
early Tuesday. A 20-30 percent chance of rain will cross the region
from Sunday afternoon through early Monday, as an upper level system
moves by. Where it does rain, rain will be light and should remain
less than a quarter-inch. Northerly breezes will pick up and become
gusty from Sunday night through Monday evening, as low pressure
strengthens over the Atlantic east of Florida and Georgia. High
pressure will settle over the region on Wednesday and Thursday,
leading to a dry air mass, light winds, poor dispersion, and
moderating temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Rainfall amounts over the next week look to generally be under half
an inch, there are currently no flooding concerns. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   45  71  47  68 /   0  30  30  20
Panama City   51  71  47  69 /   0  20  20  10
Dothan        44  70  42  67 /   0  20  30  10
Albany        42  70  45  68 /   0  30  40  20
Valdosta      43  71  47  68 /   0  30  40  30
Cross City    45  75  50  70 /   0  20  30  30
Apalachicola  52  69  49  67 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Oliver