236
FXUS62 KTAE 042350
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
750 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Late afternoon visible satellite indicates numerous cumulus
developing with some embedded showers moving westward into the
Suwanee Valley within continued low-level easterly flow. Latest
mesoanalysis indicates PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches toward the
I-75 corridor of GA and also some weak instability. Forecast
reflects this with up to 25% chance of showers into this evening.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm mainly in the FL Big
Bend, but forcing for deeper convection is lacking.

On Sunday, a cutoff low near the lower MS Valley with a surface
trough reflection over the Gulf leads to an overrunning regime
as high pressure remains to the lee of the Appalachians. This
should focus the heaviest rainfall offshore off the Emerald Coast.
But the guidance also indicates an inverted surface trough
developing from Southeast AL into the FL Big Bend, which provides
another source of lift, within an environment characterized by
PWAT near 2.0 inches, which is above the 90th percentile. PoPs
were increased within this corridor to above 50% where some brief
heavy downpours are possible. To keep this in perspective, a
reasonable worst case scenario (1 in 10 chance of being exceeded)
is for rainfall up to 1-1.5 inches.

East-Northeast winds remain gusty around 20 to 25 mph through the
period, with lows in the mid-60s and highs in the mid-80s, which is
close to normal. The Rip Current Risk is forecast to remain High
along the Franklin and Walton County beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The cutoff low near the lower MS Valley gradually lifts north
into the westerlies and fills, with a tendency for more ridging
aloft by Tuesday, while high pressure remains to the lee of the
Appalachians. PWATs remain near 2.0 inches on Monday then begin
to decrease on Tuesday. In particular on Monday, there should be
sufficient lift for showers and instability for some thunder as
well, with highest PoPs around 50% in the FL Counties. PoPs
decrease to around 20-30% on Tuesday as ridging builds aloft.
Daily average temperatures slightly above normal on Monday and
Tuesday with gusty Easterly winds continuing. The high risk of
rip currents will likely linger into at least early next week
along the Franklin and Walton County beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Ridging aloft begins to breakdown by Thursday as a mid-level
trough and its associated cold front approaches. Meanwhile,
surface ridging remains to the lee of the Appalachians with
easterly flow and drier air in place. A 20% PoP for now on
Thursday as the cold front approaches and this could linger
into Friday, as the boundary is favored to undergo frontolysis
with the ridge remaining in place near the surface. Daily
average temperatures close to or slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Breezy east-northeast winds are expected to continue during the
day tomorrow. Showers and a few storms are forecast to spread over
the area through the afternoon and evening, with the best chances
near the coast. MVFR ceilings will be possible in the mornings
before improving to VFR outside of convection for the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
into Sunday across the coastal waters due a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to our north and a stalled front to our south.
East-Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots and significant wave heights
rapidly increasing just offshore to 5 to 8 feet, highest to the west
of the Ochlockonee River. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as the front lifts north Sunday and possibly into Monday
with waterspouts possible. Easterly winds may increase to advisory
levels again Sunday night into Monday and Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Rainfall chances increase on Sunday and will be in excess of 50% in
the FL and SE AL Counties, with the highest chances expected to be
confined to the FL Counties on Monday. This will keep RH values well
above critical thresholds both days. Easterly transport winds remain
strong around 15 to 20 mph on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, mixing
heights are forecast to range from around 3,000 to 4,000 feet both
days, which will lead to good dispersions each day. Due to drying
fuels and gusty winds, some elevated fire concerns remain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

While abundant moisture does move into our area over the next
couple days, it appears the source of lift will be more diffuse
than previously forecast. As a result, forecast rainfall totals
have decreased over the area with most areas seeing around a tenth
to a quarter inch, though higher totals up to 0.5 inch are
expected near the coast. If some heavier downpours materialize,
then the reasonable high-end (90th percentile) totals are around
1 to 1.5 inches. Flooding is not a concern. With ongoing drought,
any rain we receive is beneficial, but this will yet again not be
a drought-busting rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  87  72  86 /  20  70  20  50
Panama City   71  85  72  86 /  30  60  40  60
Dothan        69  83  70  86 /  10  60  20  40
Albany        69  84  71  87 /  10  30  10  30
Valdosta      70  86  72  87 /  10  40  10  30
Cross City    70  88  72  87 /  10  60  10  40
Apalachicola  74  82  73  83 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ108.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Young