430
FXUS62 KTAE 071853
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - A couple of storms over portions of southeast Alabama and
   southwest Georgia this evening into early Saturday morning
   could become strong, and there is a Marginal Risk of severe
   thunderstorms. Gusty winds, small hail, and a brief tornado
   are the main concerns.

 - Following a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, an
   abrupt turn to cold and windy weather will occur Sunday night
   and Monday. The first killing frost and/or freeze of the season
   is expected for all but beachfront communities on Tuesday and
   Wednesday mornings.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Monday afternoon
   with gusty winds, low relative humidity, and ongoing drought
   conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Moisture return will continue ahead of an approaching cold front.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the
front this evening through Saturday. However, overall forcing will
be weaker in our area compared to farther north. If storms do
manage to get going, then sufficient shear is present to support
a limited, brief tornado threat. For this reason, the SPC has
maintained a marginal risk of severe weather across portions of
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia for tonight into Saturday
morning.

Otherwise, patchy fog is expected overnight with lows in the 60s.
Afternoon highs in Saturday will be rather warm ahead of the
front, generally in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

The big story is likely to be the cold airmass that follows the
frontal passage on Sunday. By early Tuesday morning, nearly all of
our service area except beachfront communities is expected to see
the first killing frost and/or freeze of the season. Wind chills
on Tuesday morning are expected to dip well down into the 20s,
which may necessitate cold weather advisories for portions of the
area. (The criteria is apparent temperatures of 25F for our
Florida counties and 20F for our Georgia and Alabama counties).
Another frost/freeze is expected on Wednesday morning with
favorable radiational cooling conditions across the area. After
Wednesday, the airmass will moderate with highs expected back in
the 70s for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions continue this afternoon at most of the TAF sites
outside of ECP which should see MVFR ceilings approach from the
west late this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are
anticipated near KDHN and KECP later this afternoon into the
evening and again overnight at KDHN, KECP, and KABY where the
PROB30 groups were maintained. Fog is also likely to develop
again overnight. Elected to not be too bullish on this TAF
package, but there are indications another round of areas of dense
fog are possible Saturday morning.

Otherwise, low MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely to hang out more
often than not overnight into Saturday morning on the heels of
southwesterly breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Winds will become southwesterly on Saturday ahead of a strong cold
frontal passage on Sunday. Immediately behind the front, strong
northwest winds with gusts near gale force are expected Sunday night
into Monday night. Winds will gradually diminish heading into mid
week next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
tonight into Saturday and once again on Sunday, but amounts will
generally be light. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday
afternoon with strong northerly winds following the frontal passage
into Monday night. The combination of near critically low relative
humidity values with gusty winds on Monday afternoon is likely to
produce elevated fire weather concerns. The coldest temperatures of
this fall season are on tap with the first killing frost and freeze
expected for all but immediate coastal locations both Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Severe to extreme drought over much of the region will persist or
worsen over the next 7 days. A limited window of opportunity for
rainfall this weekend will only produce amounts of 1/4 inch or less,
mainly tonight through Sunday. Isolated and localized totals to near
1/2 inch are a reasonable best case scenario. The spotty nature of
rain and the lack of heavier amounts will offer no real relief to
drought conditions.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  83  65  83 /  30  20  10  20
Panama City   67  79  67  79 /  40  10  10  20
Dothan        65  82  62  78 /  40  10  20  20
Albany        63  82  62  80 /  40  10  10  20
Valdosta      62  83  64  83 /  30  30  10  20
Cross City    61  81  64  82 /  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  67  77  66  77 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD