256
FXUS62 KTAE 031331
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were made. Showers and storms are expected to develop and move
slowly inland through the day with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall the primary threats.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder have developed along the
land breeze off the Emerald Coast that have been drifting northward.
This should continue into the early morning hours before the sea
breeze gets going this afternoon. A shortwave will move across the
Mid South this afternoon into the evening which may help provide
just a little extra support for storms. Additionally, we`ll need to
see how any possible outflow from an ongoing MCS over northern
Louisiana and western Mississippi affects our rain chances or
provides any extra lift. Hi-res guidance has not done a good job
handling that complex thus far.

Showers and storms will generally start near the coast through early
afternoon, then migrate inland into the evening as the Gulf sea
breeze advances inland. Meanwhile, during the evening hours, the
Atlantic sea breeze may make it to the I-75 corridor, keeping
lingering rain chances through the evening. The environment today is
supportive of some gusty wind and locally heavy downpour potential
with DCAPE around 800-900 J/kg and PWATs near 1.6-1.8 inches. Storms
will diminish late this evening. Some patchy fog is also possible
over southeast Alabama late tonight.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mid level ridge over the eastern seaboard will push into the
western Atlantic while mid level flow becomes more zonal Tuesday
night and Wednesday then northwesterly Wednesday night. PWATs
will be in the 1.6-1.8 range each day and as ripples in the flow
move over the area in addition to the gulf and east coast sea
breezes, will continue decent rain chances in the 40-50% range
each day and favoring the eastern half of the forecast area and
I75 corridor. In the northwest flow Wednesday night, there are
indications that a possible MCS will develop in northern Alabama
and slide southeast towards our northern and western counties by
sunrise Thursday morning. Storms have the potential to produce
strong and gusty winds, especially Wednesday as DCAPE values are
over 1000 J/kg. Highs this period will be in the low to mid 90s
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

If the MCS indeed develops Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
it will move into the central portions of the CWA by the late
morning while additional convection would develop to its south
towards the coast. Thursday has the highest rain chances of the
next week at 60-70%. Friday the GFS/ECMWF advertise a frontal
passage with associated showers and storms accompanying it and
additional development towards the afternoon along and south of
the front. This will usher in a quick round of drier air Saturday
ahead of another possible MCS from the plains/mid south that our
area may receive a glancing blow from Sunday. Highs will be
pushing the upper 90s by the weekend with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Satellite shows low stratus and patchy fog developing from about
ECP to ABY with TLH and DHN on the fringe. IFR/LIFR conditions are
possible in this swath of low stratus. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out near ECP this
morning. TSRA will develop late this morning near ECP, then spread
to TLH this afternoon, and DHN, ABY, and VLD late this afternoon.
Gusty winds are possible in TSRA, but confidence too low to
include at this time. Maintained VCTS at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Favorable marine conditions will set up for much of this week
featuring light southeast winds and low seas thanks to high
pressure located in the western Atlantic. Towards late week, winds
clock to the west as a cold front approaches the area. Wind
speeds and wave heights will experience a slight uptick but will
remain below cautionary levels. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will exist each day with higher chances towards late
week with the approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Winds will start out of the southeast this morning, then become
southwesterly this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland.
With light winds overall, dispersions will be fair today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast
along the sea breeze late this morning, then spread inland through
the afternoon. Frequent lightning and gusty, erratic winds are
possible in and near storms. A similar patterns is expected on
Tuesday followed by lower rain chances and high dispersions on
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Decent rain chances will be in place this week with the typical
summertime diurnal cycle of shower and thunderstorm
development each day. Generally speaking 1-2 inches of rainfall
could occur with locally higher amounts leading to localized
flooding. Thursday and Friday appear to be the highest rain chance
days with a possible MCS Thursday then a cold frontal passage
Friday. No river flooding concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  70  91  70 /  60  10  50  10
Panama City   86  73  88  73 /  60  10  30  10
Dothan        88  70  91  70 /  40  20  40  10
Albany        90  70  91  71 /  30  20  50  20
Valdosta      90  69  92  70 /  40  30  50  20
Cross City    89  69  93  69 /  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  85  73  86  74 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ108-112-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Scholl